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12/1/1948 - Communist Progress by A. Doak Barnett

Not publication INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS U S Consulate December Mr Waler S Rogers InsiIme Curren World Affairs Fifth Avenue York Y Dear Rogers As Central China nears climax Hsuchow Penpu hyser rumors speculation lonal capialo Contradictions official denials almos incomprehensible average reader hinese ceners military political activityms uesswork piece ogeher picture Of happening goernmen country national crisis One rsisSen rumor persisSen denied claims Sha She Genral Governmen preparing evacuate Hankingo Canon Taiwan Chungking Hengyang mentioned possible places refuge various branches government This rumor obvious military hreaZ Zo Banking simulaed widespread discussion happen people believei quesZion raher Nanking fells CommunisSo Will Central Governmen Souh Will reorganize continue resistance Communiss geographical bases If answer questions affirmaiwe chances success ApreseniappearshaifheNaionaliss decideoshif capi7 fighting decision minul disorganized scramble safey I wasinCanonlasweekandsano evidenceacarefulpreparations dbeen under receive influx govern personnel Reports preparations possible evacuation ceners conspicuously lacking press dispatches In Nanking furZaermore Governmen spokesmen under consideraion These faczs necessarily indicate haheCenZralGovernmenwillnoaemp1Dmoe Theydosuggest however disorderly uncoordinaedo The possibility continuing military acign agains Communiss Naionalis capi1ul depend success which public suppor mobilized spiri resisence revived In short general morale people Souh Yangtze River become element political siaionn Chinai Nankingfalls I recently completed through provinces Kiangsu 9hekang Kiangsi Hunan Kwangmngo Political demoralization areas I visited almost universal morale incredibly Almost spirit resistance agains Communiss remains faith Cnral Governmen seems vanished I alked people businessmen educators rickshaw coolies civil servants echniclans merchants All psychologically prepare basic political control chane regime This morale difficuly ordinary living longing peace sailiy growing mlsrus Central Governmen ominous reports ighing frons This Any change Remarks accompanie solemn shsking expressions The people I alked prospect CommUnis dominaed gvernmen supplanting present Na1ionalis regime emotions reslgnaion relief apprehension varying degrees The people intangible canno descrbe formulas measurable In China diflicul defining politics maified scarcity media public expression Whatever validity where concep public opinion generally applicable China because majority population inariculaeo Furthermore lions people access reliable informa clear opinions national political evenlm They emoionally simuli which include grapevine rumors incomplete disored reports local price They raher underslmmd political rends people I between S hanghai Canon major poli1ical change China Even change accep inevitability helpless resignaiono politically conscious minority Naionalis China obtain accurate informa1ion curren events seldom newspapers elsewhere The Government Indirec censorship watever mo1tves dlscredied Press Governmen iself When Central announces saved engineer suspec Cynicism tnased experience widespread Ick inforion spredo W Nor Cina group Clumgsha professors doctors asked I They eager repor someone access reliable information They nohing Comunis cap1are ukden 1aken place previously Chinese believe anything Governmen Wen GeneralissimoChiangadsaiwillImkeeigayearso defea Commniss people remember irresponsible saemens promising victory months An increasing number people Central Governmen deceived cheated The collapse recen economic reform program anything perhaps public disrus governmen policies people regard reforms clever fraud device wereb paper money substi tuted another means gathering silver foreign currency savings public The number people willing excuses overnmen mistakes failures decreasing overnmenz officials hemselves pazerns Zhinking acing persist general situation deteriorates public oleran Self delusion rationalization wishful hinking among officials ohers closely allied Naionalls regime often prevented aacking problems honestl solving efficiently Inepresen gloomy political amosphere wishful hinking disappearing delusion rationalization continue disaster One characteristic manifestations paerns search scapegoats refusal accep blame political failures recognize failures There causes present economic chaos China young government worker anchang capital Kiangsi Province One President Tru refusal recognize Chinese currency The other manipulation black market large ciies Russian agents traitors hired This young refused believe Central Government economic reform measures might poorly conceived plemented He supporte4 facts unquestionable proof In speec previously prominent Kuominlng leader Kiangsi explained whole situation Ordinary people conneced wiheNaiona GovernmenZ however ullible openly snowing disapproval honesty frankness officials politicos Facs explkin faith Central Governmeno They explain increasing credibility claims reports favorable ComnisSo Communiss reaed people after Tsinan capital Smnlmng bsinessman In conditions proved remarkably after A between Hankow Canon described morale adjuslefinorhCina HecontrastediwihCommuni8morale The Communiss partial explanaion families military Sha personal worries Saemens people would called absurd propaganda I people Souh Nanking would welcome National Governen enthusiasm packs moves Government psychologically vulnerable If evacuation southward Governmen iself region where people already faith fight It encounter distrust I encounter inlense resentment active opposition Wih public morale mobilizing suppor reviving spiri resistance againsl Comniss colossal possible Sincerely yours Dak Barnet Recei New York