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5/15/2006 - Making Peace with Egypt by Andrew J. Tabler

AJT MIDDLE EAST Andrew Tabler Institute Fellow based Damascus Beirut studying Lebanese affairs Syrian reform Making Peace Egypt By Andrew Tabler May CAIRO Egypt A Egypt should something forward After millions flock every first Pyramids Sphinx Valley Kings ruins perhaps antiquity greatest civilization When I think visiting Egypt shoulders tense I funny stomach Why Because Egypt I abruptly parted nearly years For seven years first student American University Cairo later journalist Egypt education currents running through Arab World Two prominent trends Western oriented economic development increas ingly violent Islamic fundamentalism battled daily basis In early 1990s IMF prescribed economic reform plans began Islamic militants launched attacks tourists Upper Egypt Imported goods flooded country tacks moved Cairo Later mobile phones internet appeared security forces rounded imprisoned Islamists Reigning supreme President Hosni Mubarak power following assassination Anwar Sadat Islamic militants October The primary instrument Mubarak maintain order Emergency Law which gives state broad powers arrest detain civilians without charge prosecute cases military courts allow appeal Interactions everyday Egyptians followed similar pattern When I first arrived I overwhelmed friendliness generosity Cairenes As battle between state Islamists national headlines Arabic improved Egyptians often earful unfair American foreign policy Middle East They always quickly pointed nothing against American people When state rounded militants masse years later I found myself increasingly quizzed Egyptians about intimate details sonal including I converted Islam Then attacks September As I watched planes buildings New York Washington mysteriously crashing earth state Pennsylvania reactions Egyptians surprised Some celebrated streets while smugly natural outcome American foreign policy Sitting American Chamber Commerce Egypt American funded organization staffed Egyptians I shocked single staff member expressed sorrow about attacks So separating governments people I thought The following morning I assignment Syria country Washington state sponsors terror To surprise almost every Syrian I following weeks expressed heartfelt sympathy Thr months later I cleaned Cairo apartment moved secular Levant I grudge against Egypt political Islam since Two U S invasions ongoing bloody Iraqi cupation later Islamic swept Egypt 1990s hitting current Syria Under intense international pressure implication assas sination former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri secularism Bashar Assad Ba athist regime giving Islam And Hariri investigation indirect pressure seeing scores Iraqis Arabic TV channels every Syrians support greater Islam political It remains impact sentiments Syrian politics So invitation wedding Cairo month seemed reason revisit stomping grounds Egyptian experience perspective During weeklong I found country still struggling between modernit religious funda mentalism terrorism presidential succession While Mubarak regime authoritarian Assad implementing economic reforms faster Damascus I discovered shock September attacks caused other Americans differentiate between rising religious sentiments among Muslims growing Islamic extremism Making distinc finding reach Arabs Muslims human level could Islamic militancy sweeping region promote democracy Homecoming As I disembarked Syrian Arab Airways Cairo I noticed progress The buses taking rivals Old Terminal Cairo Airport similar design pitiful Damascus International Airport renovated moneychangers Egypt state owned banks hustled customers A years counter window attendants snoring dingy booth Somewhat strangely country attracting millions tourists immigration officers process around arriving passengers To avoid queue I walked V I P counter caught attention service attendant Ten minutes Egyptian pounds later I through customs Baksheesh tipping still things happen Egypt anywhere After another minutes I streaming autostrade toward center My Sanna Negus friend correspondent Finnish Radio Cairo picked curbside As filled latest gossip I surprised illuminated shell Cairo Airport which month The project still I Egypt Cairenes still horrible drivers behind wheel model Happily traffic moved faster I remembered The signs overhead diverted motorists toward Azhar Tunnel multi million AJT dollar thoroughfare under Islamic Cairo ushers center minutes As headed Za malak upscale Cairo neighborhood island Nile chose tried October Flyover A minutes later standing Sanna riverside terrace I couldn believe Had I really passed through world congested cities A quick around Sanna apartment years While Cairo might hectic foreigners An annual residency permit correspondents after presentinga letter ofaccreditation paying Egyptian pounds under This allows expat journalists apartments receive localrates domestic flights andmost importantly toplantheirlives After living Damascus often I three month multiple entry revoked moment I lived rather expensive short lease furnished apart ments I coffee collapsible wooden table which I Beirut Sanna worries normal anyone their early thirties relationships wanting upcoming transfer Jerusalem It I started about problems I realized I lived another planet I because lingering political certainty Syria Making matters worse I emotionally troubled foreign colleague Damascus informing journalists authorities Big Brother Syria doesn phone comes drinks Such worries planning future secondary short survival Estranged Kinship Another planet indeed On surface Egypt Syria Arabs brothers Each ancient civilizations majority Sunni populations In something sibling rivalry claims center Arab World Both countries border Israel fought bloody liberate Palestine solving Palestinian problem pillar foreign policy utilize presidential political systems For brief three years Egypt Syria united country United Arab Republic UAR Each country variant white black Arab color revolutionary banner In green stars still adorn middle white Syrian represent Syria Egypt perhaps remaining symbol marriage Damascus could hoped would workout someday Dig little deeper however fraternity gives INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS pronounced differences Egypt million people concentrated along Nile River delta arable percent total country Around percent Egyptians still engaged agriculture percent industry percent services The capital Cairo boasts million inhabitants world densely populated cities Around percent Egyptians Sunni Muslim percent Christian Ethnically percent Egyptians Arab rounded Berbers Armenians Nubians Greeks Bedouins Egypt majority political system ruling military class Sunni Muslim Arab religious ethnic group majority In sharp contrast population Cairo equals Syria Syria agricultural exporter utilizing relative abundance arable percent total produce Arab World crops wheat tomatoes An equal percentage Syrians engaged agriculture industry percent remainder services percent An estimated percent Syrians Sunni Muslim percent Ala Druze Ismaili Shia Muslim percent Christian Ninety percent Syrians Arab rounded communities Kurds Armenians Circassians Syria rulers military elite Alawites making Syria minority political system All above found quick glance through statistical abstract The story figures cannot leaderships different approaches dealing regional problems international community Both Egypt Syria signed disengagement agreements Israel following October War In years followed Egyptian President Anwar Sadat pursued agreement solve Palestinian problem known Camp David Accords Part Camp David The Egyptian Israeli Peace Treaty survives The months following treaty Egypt The Emergency Law place since Six Day War June lifted Debate among Egypt handful political parties created split ruling Arab Socialist Union intensified Hope deeper democratic reforms flourished environment decreased military threat Egyptian Israeli negotiations never achieved settle Palestinian issue When talks foundered Sadat under intense domestic criticism being duped signing peace agreement before first clinching Palestinians Sadat responded arrests intellectuals dissidents At military parade commemorating victory Oc tober War Sadat assassinated militant group Egyptian Islamic Jihad Sadat successor Hosni Mubarak immediately stated Emergency Law which renewed every three years since Democratic development severely curtailed confronting Islamic extremism Despite early fears Mubarak might abrogate Egyptian Israeli Treaty popular anger continued plight Palestinians Egyptian presi announced respecting treaty strategic choice In return Egypt received billions dollars Western development assistance It receives billions U S military In 1980s regime weathered number economic crises inability reform public sector industries which remain tremendous burden state treasury Western assistance particularly American focused building functioning private sector The domestic political scene rather static Ar rests members outlawed Muslim Brotherhood organized opposition regime continued But Egypt freezing relations Israel after Palestinian talks broke regime gitimacy among Egyptians opposing treaty This situation changed dramatically following Gulf War In return supporting Ameri coalition Saddam Hussein forces Kuwait Western Arab Gulf countries forgave billion Egyptian return Egypt agreeing enter IMF World Bank supported Structural Adjustment Program Exchange interest rates stabilized state industries slated This predict Egypt would Tiger Nile rapidly developing East Asian economy utilizing export growth strategies Progress Palestinian issue raised hopes In September Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin signed Oslo Accords agreement Palestinian autonomy selected areas West Bank Gaza Strip Egypt support peace partner brought Cairo closer Western political orbit Economic reform celerated state industries Such progress coincided sharp increase Islamic militant attacks foreign tourists Beginning raids groups Upper Egypt spread Cairo autumn Oslo Accords international headlines The following twelve incidents involving foreign tourists reported throughout country Claiming responsibility Gamm Islamiyya Islamic Group offshoot Egyptian Islamic Jihad Security forces arrested thousands Islamists including members Muslim Brotherhood Emergency Law tried security courts Egypt jails nearly burst seams 1990s regional newspapers political cartoons Mubarak cleaning Islamic extremists vacuum Syria contrast pursue peace When Sadat Damascus Syrian President Hafez Assad Egyptian president would Jerusalem address Israeli Knesset Assad responded Israel wanted peace treaty Arab countries allow Israeli annexation occupied West Bank Gaza Strip When Egyptian Is raeli peace treaty signed Arab countries diplomatic relations Cairo Sadat failure clude Israel Palestinians Assad mendous regional support rejectionist stance Domestically Syrian regime Palestinian issue legitimize The reasoning Emer gency Law which declared Ba Party seizing power ending domestic litical instability national emergency confronting Israeli threat This policy combined brutal crackdown Syrian Muslim Broth erhood essentially ended organized political position regime Even secular dissidents hiding A political order Islamic extremism enforced above national energies focused confronting Israel Like Egypt Syria joined American coalition against Saddam Hussein Instead receiving juicy Syria allowed forces Lebanon implement Ta Accord Saudi Ara sponsored American backed ending Lebanese Civil War With Saddam Hussein crosshairs international community Lebanese issue Syria speculated thatAssad would launch polit economic reform campaign commensurate decreased regional tensions After Syria AJT Israel Madrid Peace Conference Such hopes nothing however The regime allowed members secular opposition parties without arrest activists imprisoned 1980s slowly released Instead regime investment legislation Law which remains Syria legal structure foreign invest It relaxed country currency exchange restric tions allow Arab Gulf money Hundreds millions dollars poured Syria create variety industries producing local market When President Assad 1990s state institutions ground The Syrian economy followed contracting around percent between When Assad June Parliament amended minimum requirement president allow Assad Bashar power A reform process began But unlike Egypt which extensive foreign support economic reform program Syria relied bilateral assistance programs Japan European Union United Nations The world notably United States length The regime strictly controlled information about Syria getting Ameri journalist often regarded spies pulling teeth While things changed system mindset still exist And three years after filing paperwork I still residency permit Terrorism Presidential Succession The afternoon following arrival San I clothes Swiss Club located walled compound within Cairo neighborhood Imbaba Unlike Syria Egypt number vestiges colonialism venues celebrations As I strolled salon wedding present I number familiar faces Cairo Most journalists analysts academics While I I wondered stuck Egypt The topic conversation wedding terrorism Five bombs exploded Sinai killing The targets foreign tourists resort Dahab multinational peacekeepers Claiming responsibility Tawhid Jihad Monothe Struggle reportedly offshoot Al Qaeda Many friends given Sinai close proximity Saudi Arabia where believed Al Qaeda strong support front War Terror could opening More careful observers notably friend colleague Joshua Stacher related attacks Egypt internal political situation Mubarak needs Emergency Law which another three newal month against political opponents The President position strong proclaimed first democratically elected president Egypt after taking percent country first multiparty presidential election September previously presidential nominee chosen National Democratic Party NDP controlled Parliament decision approved referendum The Gamal being groomed succeed father remains uncertain however Questions presidential succession flared before I Cairo Mubarak presi after nearly years office In June civil society activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim published article London based Majalat Saudia entitled The Arab Worl Contribution Political Science It dealt presidential succession SyrianArab Republic where President Hafez Assad succeeded Ibrahim related Syrian example other jumhurriyat republics Arab World including Egypt Instead republic Ibrahim systems should called jumlakiyya hybrid Arabic republic monarchy malakiyya Ten after article publication Ibrahim arrested along center staff tarnish state image accepting European Union funding observe parliamentary elections Ibrahim appeared front state newspapers center staff members arrested country including Coptic Christian girlfriend roommate Ibrahim eventually acquitted under American pressure married American U S INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS eventually faded The succession issue however Egyptians watched Mubarak Gamal first named ruling NDP general secretariat appointed Secretary party Policies Secretariat finally January three party Assistant Secretary Generals He since cultivated personal Washington active American Chamber Commerce Egypt Am offices I without solace September While groups Washington might Gamal power issue already running against Bush Administration democracy agenda region U S pressure reportedly played large Mubarak allow multiparty presidential elections Egypt September Washington pressed Mubarak allow parliamentary elections following November December For first history members Muslim Brotherhood strictly utlawed Syria tolerated Egypt allowed openly office The Brotherhood seats indepen Brotherhood aligned MPs previous parliament Nearly everyone wedding believed polls subject siderable rigging NDP Some judicial observers agreed launched campaign investi voting irregularities Suddenly brought disciplin charges allegedly leaking details press The government recently postponed local council elections years Brotherhood could enough support field presidential didate The U S might pressuring democracy Egypt Mubarak people masters manipulating rules their The Bush Administration slammed decision remains democratic change Washington pushing Egypt cosmetic Into Streets A morning I jumped Cairo headed downtown search beans favorite breakfast Cairo I speak Damascene Arabic dialect I struggled inject Egyptian words phrases I seldom I chatted driver I flashback Not Cairo Damascus before As usual I waited until wedding present I headed treasure trove Damascus Old City bazaar hours before departure All shops closed however Defeated I piled asked driver possible Where driver asked I American I replied American Muslim asked I taken aback During years secular Syria first driver dared enquire about religious beliefs It happen Egypt however Prying questions total strangers about personal matters somet disdain answers reasons I became disenchanted Cairo No I Protestant I replied What driver asked I explained Christianity denominations lated differences between Sunni Shiite Muslims Unlike Egyptian drivers grilled seemed understand diversity thought belief Like Egyptian cabbies galabiyya loose fitting white cotton beard sandals He I guessed illiterate His toenails yellow twisted fungus That image snapped I watched driver steered along Nile corniche He galabiyya listened Koran stereo system seemed pious Muslim I wondered Egyptians really becoming zealots shock September attacks caused accumulate number incidents years broad generalization Perhaps Egyptians simply making money The state claims Egyptian economy marching ahead percent GDP growth The government Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif Egypt first Information Communications Technology ICT minister I Cairo overseeing swath reforms aimed spurring economic growth Reforms public sector banks insurance capital markets miles ahead Syria major issues dogging Syrian economy overstaffed bureaucracy corruption overshadow Nazif plans I asked nearly everyone I lives everyday Egyptians improving Most pointed proliferation internet mobile telephones A program called Free Internet launched Nazif brought access small minute anyone fixed telephone In Egypt Telecom introduced speed ADSL inter service little Egyptian pounds INSTITUTE OF CUR RENT WORLD AFFAIRS month In upscale neighborhoods Cairo nearly every speed wireless internet access And buildings housing foreigners Sanna number wireless networks sailing innocently through living Manhattan While number fixed telephone lines necessary internet access increased around percent years International Telecommunications Union ITU estimates percent Egyptians percent The information superhighway might making inroads throughout world still Egypt In Syria internet penetration rates little percent The thing mobile phones A little Egyptian pounds various packages would budgets In Egypt million mobile lines combined annual growth percent since Around percent Egyptian telephone lines mobiles spurring telecommunications revolution along Nile Still around percent Egyptians mobile telephone majority still using phone booths overcrowded neighborhood centrale phone exchange Taken together massive outdoor advertising campaigns Western wares dominate Cairo landscape modern goods within reach increasing number wealthy upper middle class Egyptians As Syria opportunities Egypt shrinking middle class social stratum spawned ringleader Mohammed Atta The country massive informal sector including small scale manufacturing handicrafts personal services retailing other defined activities helps mitigate unemployment which hovers officially around disguises unemployment public sector Government subsidies bread other basic commodities remain place peace among My driver looked probably about September But minded And surprise during visit Cairo single driver asked religion personal details other nationality occupation Struggle Hearts Minds The Cairo uneventful I Gold Gym riverboat Giza every morning walked streets during lunch dinner evenings I point spending Abeer Allam former girlfriend nalist New York Times bureau Cairo Talking Abeer being plugged Egypt Westerners understand She middle class family Ismailia Suez Canal father having served supply officer Egyptian Army years With marks school Abeer moved Cairo joined elite Kulayat Al Faculty Tongues Ain Shams University After graduating degree English Spanish Abeer fought family Cairo alone forge career there Independence price family financial support however Abeer first little after covering shared other girls would evenings talking friends Cairo Tahrir Square little Egyptian pounds little pocket Abeer fasts during Ramadan shuns outlook distinctly secular During Egypt withIsraelin1967and Abeer sfamilyfledthe fighting along Suez Canal moved relatives Nile Delta When returned after peace talks began Abeer drawn toward American programs Sadat ordered broadcast state TV She named rabbit Steve Austin after Six Million Dollar Man Intelligent tenacious Abeer decent paying reporter Japan Kyodo News worked another shift rival Sankei Shimbun Opportunity knocked became reporter New York Times Reporting often thankless particularly bureau chief calls hours search quote story While byline reporters silent heroes heroines bring everyday INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Arab World American public Abeer decided early wanted become correspondent Western media Amid chaos ringing phones being beaten physically while covering Egyptian parliamentary elections reporting first U S invasion Iraq Abeer tried writing stories And while going rough first better First wrote local English language publications later Times business section Realizing writing needed Abeer plied Columbia University Grad School Journalism To surprise Abeer accepted awarded scholar ships young international journalists After Columbia internship Times New York Abeer Cairo bureau writing stories planning future rapidly changing increas ingly violent world For final afternoon Egypt decided visit Azhar Park million project sponsored Agha Khan Development Network Islamic Cairo The Agha Khan leader Shia Islam Ismaili Syria families religious minorities I heard about Syrians I myself Constructed former garbage Cairo citadel stench I driving Azhar Park amazing For Egyptian pounds visitors enjoy landscaped lushest gardens Middle East Its theme Islamic management calls Western tradition A drawing excavated Ayyubid Dynasty It ruled Saladin charismatic reportedly merciful commander expelled crusaders Levant Century after building power Damascus Strolling through Abeer I discussion about recent events Egyptians reacted There economic opportunities middle class people Egyptian company wages Abeer A friend ahead university works Vodaphone mobile phone provider customer service Our grades still makes Egyptian Pounds month She career cannot velop herself alone apartment For Abeer avoid track foreign companies If foreign media An artificial Azhar Park newly opened green space overlooking Islamic Cairo built former garbage The handiwork Agha Khan Development Network tinational there chances advancement Abeer At least judged merit related Nepotism doesn happen public sector pervasive private sector It crack Arab culture Such reports common throughout theArab World For young financial burden expected apartment before marriage which allows family Young women entering workforce often victims sexual harassment Abeer system major reason middle class Egyptians choosing Islamic fundamentalism instead The middle class Egypt middle secular religious We during Ramadan minds Abeer Now these people becoming lower middle class Arab Gulf money flooding Egypt those working becoming middle class They intellectual cannot change They villas Throughout Egypt I wondered whether West Islamic extremism theArabWorld InAbeer seyes military approach INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS adopted Washington Iraq cause radical terrorism solve I reported invasion first The U S messed because listen anyone Abeer They would greeted water The mayor would American commander local weapons cache secure The commander would reply orders secure weapons would The chaos started later These stupid mistakes Iraq could I still understand American couldn Americans I worked normally careful Abeer problem Washington Iraq project badly promised democratic payoff countries Egypt Syria seems flash As Hamas Palestinian elections everything stopped Abeer Now Iraq disaster because there signs U S going supporting authoritarian regimes before What Washington doing before Egypt Saudi Arabia perfect They regimes change Egyptians freedoms there elections Now Washington needs Egypt Iraq confront Iran control Hamas The regime feels confident started arresting threatening beating people again With Iraq model democratic change rocks question remains What United States promote liberal reforms countries Egypt For Abeer answer bottom Egyptians USAID country Abeer They replaced sewage system Cairo claimed accomplishment Mubarak plans The Arabic U S assis tance Ma Amerikaniya translates American relief This insulting Arabic language would anyone choose So Mubarak claims victory Egyptian people begging Painting Peacemaking As strolled paved walkway toward tificial south I asked Abeer Egyp tians Azhar Park because historical reference Saladin pushing Western crusaders image Al Qaeda other Islamic extremist groups They because beautiful Abeer Egyp tians about religious They proud haven thing proud They being taken respected The Agha Khan foreigner Islamic Sunni fundamentalists region apostates How projects could United States lions spent Iraq Near group children sitting grass seemed reading newspa As closer I realized painting I reading newspapers A older adults helped child right color pyramids airplanes hearts balloons images American children paint their I tempted children about their lives religious beliefs their feelings about Iraq Palestinians U S pressures democracy Egypt But I remembered prying questions total strangers Egypt So I minded business respected their playtime snapped photos memories One favorite films Steven Soderbergh Traffic popped A desperate enlightened narcotics struggles screen cocaine across Mexican U S frontier A clever natured Mexican narcotics agent named Javier turns evidence against Mexican security general working violent ubiquitous traffickers In return participating sting operation Javier U S government build baseball Mexican border local children instead getting sucked trade It gives Javier becomes Mexican narcotics immense moral capital community For Washington project solution problem billions dollars thousands lives solved For Mexico small right direction INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Current Fellows their Activities Richard D Connerney January INDIA A lecturer Philosophy Asian Religions Philosophy Rutgers Iona College University Hawaii Manoa Rick Connerney spending years Phillips Talbot Fellow studying writing about intertwining religion culture politics India described former U S Ambassador John Kenneth Galbraith functioning anarchy Rick B A M A religion Wheaton College University Hawaii respectively Kay Dilday October FRANCE MOROCCO An editor New York Times Op Ed years Kay holds M A Comparative International Politics Theory Graduate Center City University New York Bachelor degree English Literature Tufts University graduate Universiteit Amsterdam Netherlands Co Civilisation Sorbonne She traveled written Haiti began jouralistic council reporter Somerville This Week Somerville MA Cristina Merrill June ROMANIA Born Bucharest Cristina moved Romania United States mother father Learning English retaining Romanian majored American History Harvard College there became captain women tennis She received Master degree Journalism New York University worked several U S publications Adweek New York Times spending years Romania watching emerge darkness Ceauscescu regime presumed light membership European Union NATO Nicholas Schmidle October PAKISTAN Nicholas freelance writer interested intersection culture religion politics Asia He spending years Pakistan writing issues sectarian national identity Previously reported Central Asia Iran published Washington Post Weekly Standard Foreign Policy Christian Science Monitor others Nick received M A International Affairs Regional Studies American University December He lives Rikki Andrew J Tabler February SYRIA LEBANON Andrew lived studied worked Middle East since Rotary Foundation Ambassadorial Fellowship enabled begin Arabic language studies toward Master degree American University Cairo Following Master editorships Middle East Times Cairo Times before moving Turkey Lebanon Syria working Senior Editor Oxford Business Group correspondent Economist Intelligence Unit His ICWA fellowship bases Beirut Damascus where report Lebanese affairs Syrian Jill Winder July GERMANY With B A politics Whitman College Walla Walla WA Master degree Art Curating Bard College Annandale Hudson NY Jill ICWA Donors Fellow looking Germany through ideas viewpoints contemporary artists Before months intensive study German language Berlin Thomas J Watson Fellow looking communist practice cultural politics transition former Soviet Czech Republic Slovakia Poland Croatia Hungary Latvia Romania Slovenia Ukraine Institute Fellows chosen basis character previous experience promise They young professionals funded spend minimum years carrying designed programs study writing outside United States The Fellows required report their findings experiencesfrom field month They write subject formally informally asthey The result unique reporting analysis periodic assessment interna tional events issues Author Tabler Andrew J Title ICWA Letters Middle East North Africa ISSN Imprint Institute Current World Affairs Hanover NHMaterial Type Serial Language EnglishFrequency MonthlyOther Regions East Asia South Asia The Americas Europe Russia Sub Saharan Africa ICWA Letters ISSN published Institute Current World Affairs Inc exempt operating foundation incorporated New York State offices located West Wheelock Street Hanover NH 03755 The letters provided charge members ICWA available libraries professional researchers subscription Phone Fax E Mail valley Web address Executive Director Steven Butler Program Assistant Brent Jacobson Administrative Publications Manager Ellen Kozak Institute Cur WorldAffairs The Crane Rogers Foundation The Information contained publication reprinted republished without express consent Institute Current World Affairs