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8/1/2006 - Op Ed: To Help Israel, Help Syria by Andrew J. Tabler

ICWA AJT MIDDLE EAST Andrew Tabler Institute Fellow based Damascus Beirut studying Lebanese affairs Syrian reform letters Since Institute Current World Affairs Crane Rogers Foundation providedlong fellowships enableoutstanding young professionalsto outside United States write about international areas issues An exempt operating foundation endowedby Charles R Crane Institute supported bycontributions minded individuals foundations TRUSTEES Bryn Barnard Joseph Battat Carole Beaulieu Mary Lynne Bird Sharon F Doorasamy Peter Geithner Gary Hartshorn Pramila Jayapal Cheng Li Steven Butler Dasa Obereigner David Z Robinson Carol Rose John Spencer Edmund Sutton HONORARY TRUSTEES David Elliot David Hapgood Pat M Holt Edwin S Munger Richard H Nolte Albert Ravenholt Phillips Talbot August Dear Steve Hope Attached draft piece I putting together about United States could engage Syria Relations between Damascus Washington rapidly deteriorating To matters worse sides equally defiant demanding party submit other before negotiations start I think unrealistic Washington Damascus embrace other future Each government agenda region defines other enemy I believe United States promote democracy region weather effects Israel Hezbollah Washington engage Syria private sector U S economic assistance Syria forbid since Syria added Washington State Sponsors Terrorism Almost every other trend Arab World Islamism Iranian influence gaining ground American sentiment swelled Most Syrians doubt American intentions because daily reports carnage flowing Iraq As focused Lebanon month Iraqis killed sectarian fighting highest monthly total since U S coalition invaded Iraq March As I wrote piece I doubtful BushAdministration would engage Syria anytime There plans wedge Syria Iran these originated Department State Other foreign policy Bush Administration notably president Dick Cheney office against talking Syria feeling would reward Syria behavior They concerned rightfully Damascus would engagement process Washington reassert influence Lebanon Dealing authoritarian regime dealing mentally patient Redlines encounter consume engaging party Ignoring people option But defying entire country million people something Syria economic social growing Islamist sentiments influence The country borders Israel Washington closest region It seems risky Please Hanover I forward seeing Wash ington meeting December Best regards Andrew To Help Israel Help Syria IT hardly surprising discussing Lebanon crisis President Bush tends couple Syria Iran After Damascus Tehran spent better deepening their minating June military cooperation agreement But United States leverage Syria lacks Iran If reported Washington seeks drive wedge between Hezbollah backers Bush administration would modify democracy agenda include support Syrian reform Syria influence break political deals Lebanon proposed international cease exception In likelihood Israeli offensive southern Lebanon disarm Hezbollah which under noses vulnerable peacekeepers untested Lebanese could easily redeploy range rockets north Bekaa Valley Syrian border From there missiles could still reach Israel Hezbollah could supplied through smuggler Lebanese Syrian frontier Only Israeli pullout Golan Heights would entice Damascus Hezbollah controlled areas ensure fighters eventually disarmed But gotiations could years Meanwhile liners buoyed Syria recent alliance nuclear hungry Iran favor Damascus while reformers scramble cover assistance their programs receive European Union United Nations World Bank doubt their oyalty If Washington wants break President Bashar Assad Tehran should promote economic liberalism wedge It should support efforts combat corruption promote transparency activities nongovernmental organizations Germany already adopted similar approach And American version might Syria economic future Assad regime jeopardy The country weighed style state socialism plagued issues breed Islamic tremism including birth rates growing unemployment lowest productivity rates world State expenditures notably military spending financed production which rapid decline High prices given regime temporary lease reprieve Syria importer within years That likely change state relationship growing private sector At moment rates private sector seldom return accepts having governed When revenues state spread tentacles private sector search which point undoubtedly trade force political rights citizens Unlike Iran which United States diplomatic relations there American Embassy Damascus coordinate assistance Syria reformers Given mistrust between governments however America vibrant private sector should It sharing expertise building strong trans parent market economy This would increase American credibility Syria without violating American sanctions which American exports certain banking transactions direct flights Syria exchange knowledge If Damascus demonstrates ability disarm Hezbolla American economic could follow Yes American support Syrian reform might perpetu President Assad power short would erode Syria reasons backing Iran Hezbollah It would undermine widespread increas ingly corrosive suspicion region Washington democracy agenda cover Israeli inspired spread chaos Arab world break Arab states neuter their threat Israel And would finally demon strate United States committed spreading liberty great adversity Reprinted permission The New York Times August Op Ed Contributor To Help Israel Help Syria Institute Fellows chosen basis ICWA Letters ISSN published Institute Current World Af character previous experience fairs Inc exempt operating foundation incorporated New York State promise They young professionals offices located West Wheelock Street Hanover NH 03755 The letters funded spend minimum years provided charge members ICWA available libraries professional researchers subscription carrying designed programs study writing outside United Phone E Mail valley Fax Web address States The Fellows required report their findings experiences Executive Director Steven Butler field month They write Program Assistant Publications Manager Ellen Kozak subject formally informally Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation The result unique porting analysis periodic assessment The Information contained publication reprinted republished without express written consent Institute Current World Affairs international events issue