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8/15/2006 - No Voice Louder than the Cry of Battle by Andrew J. Tabler

AJT MIDDLE EAST Andrew Tabler Institute Fellow based Damascus Beirut studying Lebanese affairs Syrian reform No Voice Louder Cry Battle By Andrew Tabler August DAMASCUS Syria The Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser famous internationally turning country military defeat diplomatic Israel Britain France Suez crisis defiantly shifting Egypt Soviet during Cold War In Arab World Nasser better known subsequent embrace authoritarian socialism export through Pan Arab revolution across region The domestic political reforms Nasser Free Officers promised seized power postponed until Arab dignity restored Israel defeat The policy which dramatically ended Israel routed Arabs Six Day War June encapsulated slogan No voice louder battle Fifty years later history seems repeating itself Syria High civilian casualties Israeli raids summer Hezbollah Israeli public relations disaster Washington which openly delayed UN ceasefire talks Israel pound Hezbollah submission before sustainable peace could place When ended after neither victor quished diplomats quickly turned Syrian President Bashar Assad possible party could Hezbollah Mysteriously quiet during Assad finally seemed political people Young Syrians donned yellow Hezbollah T shirts masse windows plastered banners featuring Assad Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah Ira President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad The state waved customs restrictions Leba Syrian frontier accommodate hundreds thousands refugees which largely shelte Syria private sector Picking signs U S State Depart officials reportedly aimed drive wedge between Syria Iran AJT High ranking European officials showed Damascus first since assassination former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri February A number articles Western press tried persuade Bush Administration unsuccessfully engage Syria disarm Hezbollah WhenAssad finally spoke onAugust President Bashar Assad clear going radical Assad speech Augustpredictably praised resistance accused following summer Washington Israel planning advance Israeli Hezbollah War indicates massive response Hezbollah abduction Damascus closing doorIsraeli soldiers July Assad unexpectedly Western cooperation accused European countries being involved embracing Iran instead U S Israeli conspiracy against Syria branded Arab leaders positions concern support resistance Assad warned Western embassies Damascus meddle Syria internal affairs admonition could veritable death knell country Western funded designed efforts Like Nasser after Suez Assad pushing country America archenemy nuclear hungry Islamic Republic Iran The question remains however Syrians ready Tehran embrace Political Awakening Nearly years authoritarian Syrians sleep politically On morning July example Syrians country exiled opposition group Muslim Brotherhood announced setting transitional government prevent anarchy event Assad regime collapse When Israel unleashed massive bombing campaign Lebanon later respo abduc soldiers Hezbollah people across Syrian capital crowded around television tuned their radios latest On July Al Jazeera television reported Israel bombed Syrian military installation Lebanese Syrian frontier It finally started Syria enemy approaching gates Did report friend asked I answered mobile telephone I could sense voice panicking Do think asked I Syrians Lebanese socially economically joined following forced withdrawal Syrian Army Lebanon April formal political relations distinct years When comes Hezbollah attack Israel however comes Israel reads return address Given Hezbollah strong support Dam ascus Tehran anyone guess Israel would responsible It clear Assad answer either Syria state dominated media reported Israeli attacks official comment first instead using statements Russian President Vladimir Putin random Italian communist party officials condemning violence On July Syrian Information Minister Mohsen Bilal responded border strike Any Israeli aggression against Syria direct response whose timing methods unlimited Bilal Iran quickly backed Syria warning Israel unimaginable losses struck Syria Tehran added offering spiritual humanitarian support Hezbollah The Iranian regime denied Syria Tehran supplied Hezbollah weapons U S President George W Bush thought otherwise On July Putin openly teased Bush about Washington democracy agenda G Summi Moscow microphone inadvertently recorded muffled candid conversation between Bush British Prime Minister Tony Blair would light Washington crisis What Syria Hezbollah doing Bush blurted Blair lunch table The question In Syria among founding members Washington State Spon International Terrorism Until Sudan added Syria member which US diplomatic relations U S stricted economic assistance items Syria years Washington keeps embassy Damascus primarily reason Syria strong influence Lebanon On February after former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri assassinated US Ambassador Syria Margret Scobey marched office Syria foreign minister presi Farouq Shara announced going America chief representative Damascus Deputy Chief Mission Steve Seche whose scheduled July As journalists West tried transcribe candid Bush Blair lunch exchange US embassy Damascus Steve going party around When I arrived U S Ambassador residence recent remodeling which ironic given historically relations between Damascus Wash ington Steve greeted garden entrance along Bill Roebuck embassy political officer After about minutes discussion folded looking ground I despite rhetoric I thought I heard conciliatory gestures Hezbol leader Hassan Nasrallah TV address Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert speech earlier Perhaps situation would I Are kidding Seche WE wrote speech And turned greet garden visitor Steve message diplomatic U S support Israel But there something about spoke something totally happy about Proxy War That something turned proxy Leba between United States regional nemesis nuclear hungry Islamic Republic Iran From first small stories reported Israeli generals before briefed U S officials about military response expected Hezbollah attempt capture Israeli soldier Such expectations nowhere Hezbollah attempted Israeli soldiers January Hamas Islamic resistance organization parliamentary majority Palestinian Authority successfully captured Is raeli solider June leading massive Israeli military response So Hezbollah tunnel under ceasefire demarcates southern border Lebanon Israeli diers abduct others July surprise Israel struck Unexpected Hezbollah ability fight Aweek after bombardment began including strikes civilian targets Israel claims Hezbollah using facto human shields diplomats attending garden party surprised Hezbollah continued hundreds rockets northern Israel every Syrians seemed surprised pleasantly Day Hezbollah flags appeared across Syrian capital young people lined shops Nasrallah T shirts Homemade decals I noticed early April showing busts Assad Nasrallah Ahmadinejad arranged together suddenly appeared professionally printed posters windows The Syrian media Hezbollah propaganda paign determine depth popular resistance State owned Syrian television morning evening programs Syrians watch besides operas Arab TV satellite stations video footage women children being pulled rubble Lebanon Marching music played ground complete drums The ruckus suddenly stopped followed audio recording U S Secretary State Condoleezza Rice statement July Lebanon birth pangs Middle East The linkage between Washington democracy agenda Israel death destruction clear Rice dictum repeated every Syrian television weeks which Syrians parroted addendum Sykes Picot secret agreement between Britain France division Ottoman empire Arab states today Better Devil You Know The question remained Syrians would state version After years Syria reform process Syrians unhappy ruled Ahost European countries stepped forward support Bashar Assad assumed presidency July following death father Hafez The primary reason engaging political Syria bordered Israel controlled Lebanon Hafez Assad nearly signed peace agreement INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Israel three months before death The ondary related reason reform corrupt authoritarian systems Arab World bring Western orbit arrange smooth transition toward democracy Overly centralized decision making combined Syria continued socialist ideals decade after Soviet Union collapse weighed heavily Syrians Their innate Levantine entrepreneur spirit ensured private sector survived however distorted triple bookke eping system bribes substitutes taxation Europeans headway spurring economic reform political reform stalled A brief opening after Bashar power dubbed Damascus Spring flowering discussion forums tackled Syria myriad political economic social problems A later state rounded opponents imprisoned tight Syria small disorganized opposition since When United States invaded Iraq March ridding weapons destruction images American tanks pulling Iraq orchard Saddam Hussein statues spoke million words Syria Many speculated similar effigies Hafez Assad throughout Syria Lebanon would tumbling Almost months after Baghdad Israel bombed Palestinian training Ain Saheb outside Damascus response Islamic Jihad terrorist attack Haifa President Bush Israel justified because Damascus continued offices Islamic Jihad other Palestinian militant groups He announced longer opposed U S congressional sanctions against Syria awaiting signature Since Eu ropean positive pressure failed change Assad regime business perhaps negative pressures sanctions verbal threats would bring Damascus around The Bush Administration implemented sanctions May president selection U S exports already existent flights between U S Syria little shake regime Assad responded using Syrian influence Lebanon extend Lebanese President Emile Lahoud September Washington Paris countered Security Council Resolution which demanded withdrawal Syrian troops Lebanon disarmament Hezbollah After Hariri killed following Febru Syria withd troops three months later Nega pressures particularly concerning investigation Hariri murder seemed working least Lebanon They worked Syria different The after Hariri killed civil society activists Syria began organizing exiled opposition groups notably Muslim Brotherhood Opposition parties around Damascus Declaration manifesto democratic change Syria Its announcement delayed state pressure promises great forward reform June Ba Party Conference When vague promises parties short expectations continued declaration leading announcement before first results Hariri investigation nounced October The Declaration leaders might working directly Washington certainly working concert diplomatic pressures Damascus See AJT After skillfully rebuffing Syrian opposition moves democratic reforms during height diplomatic demands resulting Hariri investi gation regime began cracking opposition activists following defection opposition former Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam Decem Some regime feared Khaddam contacts country ability trouble Others regime regained authoritarian confidence democracy agenda burner Washington following Muslim Brotherhood impres showing autumn Egyptian parliamentary elections Hamas routing Fatah January Palestin polls Hezbollah ability remain Lebanese government Chaos Theory What Syrian people autumn rioting streets demanding downfall Damascus regime perhaps weakest point years Fear arrest security services serious doubts Washington intentions Assad Syria The Hariri investigation coincided rapid increase bloodshed neighboring Iraq If television footage slaughter civilians enough raise questions Syrians minds about Bush agenda reinforced waves Iraqi refugees flooding Syria Some brought suitcases money The Syrian government offered Iraqis basic services budgets earlier Charities international relief agencies trying The chaos raging Iraq accident Syrians again again They Israeli inspired forged conservatives prominent Bush Administration smash Arab societies through military action create sectarian strife cause civil While I argued Levant crazy conspiracy theories Syrians reply think happening Iraq three years mistake No policy The Syrian regime exploited Iraq fiasco suing daily statements attributing region problems Zionist American conspiracy implicated Syrian opposition arrests earlier following signing another opposition manifesto Beirut Damascus Declaration The regime making Washington worst nightmare letting Islamic genie Syria secular bottle The permitted burning Danish Embassy Damas response caricatures Prophet Mohammed published Danish newspaper AJT along reports radical takfiri Islamic groups carrying operations Syria American weapons fitted nicely regime newly strengthened liance Iran So Hezbollah Israel perfect regime safety valve releasing popular gression enemies Hezbollah Shiite Islamic movement Syria majority Sunni population supporters Muslim Brotherhood cannot control It helps people fighting Western powers support Israel oversee carnage Iraq Last least because Israeli American threat Syria turned violence Lebanon allows regime reform until enemy defeated dignity restored Battle Hearts Minds The first government organized demonstration resistance July indicated popular Hezbollah lukewarm When I called Syrian friends journalists morning going rally still shortly before kicked Only thousand state workers given hours leave attended The giant television camera booms I first Syr counter demonstrations Damascus March AJT TV cameras close images crowd exaggerate This scene repeated multiple Damascus rallies The demonstration uninspiring group journalist colleagues I decided visit nearby Rouda Caf opposition hangout adjacent parlia As sucked strong Syrian colleague leaned table whispered behind Sitting three Houssam Taher Houssam something witness cited first report Hariri investigation recanted testimony against Syrian regime November There brief comical moment excitement I snapped photo Houssam stealth shoulder The patrons extremely seemingly unconcerned about raging As civilian casualties increased Syrians behind resistance For months I noticed friends cells phones ringtones featuring excerpts Nasrallah speeches Some bothered longer clips which traded among friends As dragged Syrian friends began including emails AJT Early government organized rallies indicated popular support resistance lukewarm showing photos women children being pulled bombed buildings Lebanon occupied territories Some arranged PowerPoint presentations They badly notably photo captions horrible English Arabic spelling grammar mistakes They genuine expressions popular concerns however state clumsy propaganda Such sentiments after Lebanese refugees began A candid photograph Houssam Taher Houssam infamous Syrianwitness Hariri investigation whorecanted damning testimony against regime Syrian TV November INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS flooding Syria econd See Iraqis colleague Obaida Hamad approached swarm Lebanese piling across Syrian border crossing Jdaida Iraqis continued stream Syria Iraq every The Obaida regime parrot connection helped realize popular senti ments regime quickly merging This notion reinforced genuine hospitality extended Lebanese refugees arrival Syrian society While official organizations Syrian Arab Red Crescent passed water private sector delivered truckloads supplies Aphone booth mobile phone provider Syri owned President Assad cousin Rami Makhlouf offered calls anywhere Syria Lebanon As Lebanese waited immigration procedures young activists Lawyers Syndicate Syrian Pub Relations Organization Nizar Mahyoub Ministry Information official responsible foreign journalists canvassed arriving trucks asking passengers place Damascus Those shelter touch Syrian families placed their names canvass We names canvasser baseball pointing clipboard stuffed papers All Lebanese refugees found Syria Around percent those housed private Syrian homes In cases moved parents displaced As I walked among throng vehicles making their Syria I imagined power Syrians gener osity I sadly realized United States world superpower champion globalization absolutely nothing offer counterweight Assad sitting pretty friend later evening If regime legitimacy doesn people obtain response external threat High civilian casualties seemed helping regime among opposition We denounce Israeli aggression against Lebanese civilians Hassan Abdul Azim secretary general opposition Democratic Arab Socialist Unity Party leader Damascus Declaration later Israel cannot attack Lebanon without approval support United States We Syrian leadership strengthen national unity through opening Syrian opposition Syria stronger Israeli threats Misha Tummo Secretary General Kurd Future Party violence against civilians We Kurdish people condemn kinds aggres violence against Lebanese civilians Tummo We sympathize Lebanese because people Kurds massacres killing civilians The Lebanon regional between Syrian Iranian Lebanese Hezbollah front Unites States Israel Arab states which follow American orders The change rules Middle East Even Riad Turk Syria outspoken opposition leaders nationalist criti cally Lebanon world fight Turk Lebanon Arab Israeli conflict Israel US capturing Israeli soldiers pretext against Lebanon The Syrian stance border Lebanese civilians humanitarian acceptable Syria should support Lebanese using In regard Syrian official stance A Window Opportunity With civilian casualties skyrocketing Hezbollah showing signs surrendering profile Americans regional experience began talking about Bush Administration engage Syria From early New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman argued Washington inter ested ending bloodshed discuss Syria He whistle through Israel Jordan Syria about conflict theory The writer Lee Smith friend three American refugees Beirut staying apartment arranged meeting Friedman arrival Damascus I Friedman there Assad To something which I pertained engaging Assad patriotic environmentalism Friedman ready Syrian Minister Expatriates Bouthaina Shaaban former translator Hafez Assad member Assad Alawite When asked I immediately called handler Deputy Premier Abdullah Dardari Syria primary reformer My contact would evening answer The reply minutes later Dardari would Friedman following night before airport Friedman Assad So Lee I nized dinner following night rooftop terrace restaurant Damascus Old City introduce Friedman Syria Today owner Kinda Kanbar staff members Obaida Hamad Dalia Haidar Dalia brother Ziad AJT correspondent Al Arabiyya Television As Safir newspaper Al Hayat newspaper Ibrahim Hamidi joined After pleasantries Syrians crowded around Friedman whose notebook computer always table Friedman popular columnist great writer largely because excellent listener His earth friendly helps people night exception Some table railed against Israel others praised Hezbollah talked pride militia resilience Obaida always oddball talked about resistance other important domestic issues reform democracy I I camera evening because meeting turned closest thing Ameri Syrian reconciliation during conflict As I escorted Friedman Dardari office little later handler called mobile The minister called emergency meeting My watch cabinet session You these What Friedman I State Department leaked earlier New York Times which sought drive wedge between Syria Iran already floundering According another Times report weeks later Secretary State Rice Steve Seche Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moualem around Friedman visit Syria willing negotiate While meeting place report Moualem indica Syrian regime would moderately structive No other overtures taken place since Nevertheless Friedman column which quoted extensively rooftop dinner turned first articles tried unsuccessfully convince Bush Administration engage Syria another Friedman spoke about dinner NPR Meet Press following In New York Times August I advocated allowing U S private sector involved Syria wedge AJT So Washington defying Damascus Tehran versa conflict dragged weeks As United States France argued ceasefire texts Security Council Syrians later Lebanese Washington simply giving Israel finish expense Lebanese civilian lives The positive pressure specialists Europeans stepped diplomacy chance On August Spanish foreign minister Miguel Angel Moratinos arrived Damascus talks Assad His arrival seemed promising Damascus February Hariri murder marked European official Syria Moratinos reporters after meeting Assad willing influence Hezbollah statement quickly denied state agency European newspapers reported certain EU countries Germany primary supporter Syrian reform preparing package incentives Syria supplies Hezbollah Among these carrots report German effort member countries European Union delayed Associa Agreement Syria Once ratified agreement would Syria schedule reform steps aimed liberalizing trade promoting investment bolstering respect human rights The Divine Victory Finally August month after conflict began Security Council passed Resolution which called ceasefire deployment international force south Lebanon The ceasefire which Hezbollah Israel consented effect hours resolution In clumsy attempt public relations grace Israel quickly launched largest airborne opera since throughout south Lebanon They hoping capture would great surprise Hezbollah extensive network tunnels concrete reinforced bunkers hundred meters Israeli frontier where daily rocket INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS barrages launched during Their construc limestone completely undetected Israel UNIFIL force south Lebanon Lebanese government One UN commander friend Hezbollah bringing cement spoon Eager Lebanese about I passed through crossing point Syria Lebanon destroyed Israeli bombing minute ceasefire effect morning August The usual journey Damascus Beirut little Israeli strikes roads bridges I quickly rented drive around Beirut including Hezbollah headquarters southern neighborhood Haret Harek Israel precision bombing impressive Israelis destroy building little damage adjacent structures Their intelli gence information targets seemed fallen short however nearly thousand Lebanese civilians Israeli strikes during In south Israel cluster bombs unexploded ordinance claimed lives almost children wounded hundred Hezbollah banners buildings southern suburbs their point Extremely Ac curate Targets banner hanging Haret Harek adorned photo bandaged child missing It footnoted slogan The Divine Victory That afternoon New Yorker Magazine posted article website veteran journalist Seymour Hersh citing credible sources Washington indeed planned Israel response Hezbollah kidnapping advance The reason To destroy Hezbollah ability Israel during possible future U S preemptive strikes Iran which August UN deadline enriching uranium As Iran program literally underground Hersh U S wanted understand effectiveness weapons Israel arsenal against targets The report Bush Administration hoped would further democracy strengthen government Lebanese Premier Fouad Siniora could assert authority south country which controlled Hezbollah Slamming Doo The President Assad finally broke silence address Syrian Journalists Fourth General Conference Damascus The brimstone speech which featured conspiracy scores times dashed hopes peace The illusive realization peace becomes important necessary other methods become Assad The whole world inter Heavy damage Beirut southern suburbs Hezbollah responding immediate media campaign designed point Israel targeting civilian areas during Assad profile interviews since support regime embrace resistance Iran putting reform burner ested Middle East after War West moves Israel Resistance Assad added necessary achievement peace While Assad Hezbollah rhetoric pected swipe Europe supports Syr reform efforts unprecedented The countries concerned peace process mostly European responsible happening We might wonder motivates officials these countries messages about prisoner Syrian What nobility What humanity What great We might where these officials concerning massacres perpetrated Lebanon And fellow Arabs leaders Assad mixed words One other positive sides completely uncovered Arab situation If asked Arab citizen about Arab situation before which Arabs situation under makeup reality This prevented cosmetics classi positions clear There solutions where unveiled people positions those waiting where scales would fallen along their positions This INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS important outcomes battle Less after Assad speech German For Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier cancelled Damascus scheduled later He dubbed negative contribution justified current challenges opportunities Middle East One Country One Voice When I returned Damascus after Assad speech I found nearly Syrian friends supported Western oriented reforms terribly depressed looking leave The problem president strong support Hezbollah Syrians agreed Instead pervasive feeling dogged Bashar presidency beginning simply block Can imagine Hafez would situation blurted norma Assad league I understand being United States Israel Europe Arabs Hafez would situation bring Syria Now isolated Tehran President Assad doesn problem A later interview Dubai TV Hamdi Kandeel Assad tried fences Arab leaders nearly refuse speak Syrian president Assad insisted Iran strong region Iran country existed region centuries Assad It Arabs absent political arena whether decision making shaping region future If strong countries positive would serve stability region Iran wants nuclear project peaceful means There nothing Iran Kandeel asked Assad about concerns Is lamic Republic influence would lready religious current could undermine regime Arab ideological bedrock The president responded could handle Syria secular country problem operating Iran Assad If looks happening Iraq Western which propagating secularism working consolidate religious radical current Arab World When Kandeel asked Assad point blank Syria adopt resistance model championing region Assad mapped Saddam Hussein insur gency strategy event We there siege imposed Syria U S backs Israel hundred percent Assad So changed duties preparing least first phase defend territory Israel expansionist state peace achieved natural future region The resistance public process resolution people overtake their governments carry And while Syrians resist Israel Assad Nasser clear political reform would remain burner until enemy defeated restored We steps toward greater freedoms vision Assad But exploited outside which pening enter framework chaos dependency cheat domestic situation Loyalty country means accepting foreign inter ference embassy Work continues parties accomplish under circumstances INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Richard D Connerney January INDIA A lecturer Philosophy Asian Religions Philosophy Rutgers Iona College University Hawaii Manoa Rick Connerney spending years Phillips Talbot Fellow studying writing intertwining religion culture politics India described former U S Ambassador John Kenneth Galbraith functioning anarchy Rick B A M A religion Wheaton College University Hawaii respectively Kay Dilday October FRANCE MOROCCO An editor New York Times Op Ed years Kay holds M A Comparative International Politics Theory Graduate Center City University New York Bachelor degree English Literature Tufts University graduate Universiteit Amsterdam Netherlands Cours Civilisation Sorbonne She traveled written Haiti began jouralistic council reporter Somerville This Week Somerville MA Nicholas Schmidle February PAKISTAN Nicholas freelance writer interested intersection culture religion politics Asia He spending years Pakistan writing issues ethnic sectarian national identity Previously reported Central Asia Iran published Washington Post Weekly Standard Foreign Policy Christian Science Monitor others Nick received M A International Affairs Regional Studies American University December He lives Rikki Andrew J Tabler February SYRIA LEBANON Andrew lived studied worked Middle East since Rotary Foundation Ambassadorial Fellowship enabled begin Arabic language studies toward Master degree American University Cairo Following Master editorships Middle East Times Cairo Times before moving Turkey Lebanon Syria working Senior Editor Oxford Business Group correspondent Economist Intelligence Unit His ICWA fellowship bases Beirut Damascus where repor Lebanese affairs Syrian reform Jill Winder July GERMANY With B A politics Whitman College Walla Walla WA Master degree Art Curating Bard College Annandale Hudson NY Jill ICWA Donors Fellow looking Germany through ideas viewpoints contemporary artists Before months intensive study German language Berlin Thomas J Watson Fellow looking communist practice cultural politics transition former Soviet Czech Republic Slovakia Poland Croatia Hungary Latvia Romania Slovenia Ukraine Current Fellows their Activities INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS ICWA Letters ISSN published Institute Current World Af fairs Inc exempt operating foundation incorporated New York State offices located West Wheelock Street Hanover NH 03755 The letters provided charge members ICWA vailable libraries professional researchers subscription Phone E Mail valley Fax Web address Executive Director Steven Butler Program Assistant Publications Manager Ellen Kozak Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation The Information contained publication reprinted republished without express written consent Institute Current World Affairs Institute Fellows chosen basis character previous experience promise They young profession funded spend minimum twoyears carrying designed grams study writing outside theUnited States The Fellows required report their findings experiences field month They write subject formally orinformally The result unique reporting analysis periodic assessment internationalevents issues