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4/15/2005 - Rally ’round the Flag by Andrew J. Tabler

ICWA LETTERS Since Institute Current World Affairs Crane Rogers Foundation provided fellowships enable outstanding young professionals outside United States write about international areas issues An exempt operating foundation endowed Charles R Crane Institute supported contributions minded individuals foundations TRUSTEES Bryn Barnard Joseph Battat Mary Lynne Bird Steven Butler Sharon F Doorasamy William F Foote Peter Geithner Gary Hartshorn Kitty Hempstone Katherine Roth Kono Cheng Li Peter Bird Martin Chandler Rosenberger Edmund Sutton HONORARY TRUSTEES David Elliot David Hapgood Pat M Holt Edwin S Munger Richard H Nolte Albert Ravenholt Phillips Talbot Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation Four West Wheelock Street Hanover New Hampshire 03755 U S A AJT MIDDLE EAST Andrew Tabler Institute Fellow based Damascus Beirut Lebanese affairs Syrian reform Rally round Flag By Andrew Tabler APRIL DAMASCUS Syria Demonstrations protests Arab World citing watch always indicators actual popular sentiment In places Lebanon Syria however where communal business ances political often built irony paradox demonstrations social safety valves where citizens their spleens politicians demonstrate their legitimacy number heads counted amount spilled In Lebanon world watched Hizbollah organized rally Beirut Riad Solh Square March attracted hundreds thousands Lebanese support Syria Lebanese affairs Since estimated headcount rally surpassed opposition protest February Omar Karami resigned prime minister following February protests accepted tation Syria Lebanese President E Lahoud rescue govern would include loyalist members opposition Not outdone opposition launched counter demonstrations March month anniversary former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri assassina Hundreds thousands protestors throughout country Lebanon religious confessions rallied Beirut Martyrs Square newspapers dubbed largest public demonstration country history The battle whose demonstration biggest therefore which truly reflected people quickly proclaiming victory The Syrian thrown demonstration March following Hizbollah rally Thousands students public sector workers along Mezze Autostrade Damascus largest modern suburb thoroughfare kilometer nearby Malki President Bashar Assad sonal resid U S embassy diplomatic headquarters other Western countries The named after Col Adnan Malki deputy chief staff Ba Party member assassinated sergeant loyal Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party SSNP fascist party advocating creation Greater Syria political cultural union today Lebanon Israel Palestinian Territories Jordan Syria Cyprus SSNP leaders subsequently imprisoned country ending their political influence country This first rally I witnessed Syria certainly largest As I walked rally I could music drums kilome Rounding first corner autostrade I immediately middle class Syrian family modern dress signs No U S A English gling around their necks I couldn resist opportu challenge little exactly meant little countries process As I approached family their widened saucer I stopped front expressionless blurted I American I angry The father instantly extended looked clearly frightened We anything against American people against govern Please personally quite vously I couldn straight laughed little I shook I But makes against whole United States What protesting against Bush meddling affairs He shook walked Until moment I thought march Syrian Lebanese loyalists Lebanese President Emile Lahoud Prime Minister Omar Karami Parliamentary Speaker Nabil Berri least Hezbollah After I thought about Hariri assassination Lebanese opposition attacks Syria Lebanon Instead March rally march against For interference increasingly popular lately Syria Damascus under U S sanctions since placed Washington first sponsors terrorism labeled primary backer various Palestinian militant groups carrying hijackings similar attacks against U S targets throughout region When Syria supported U S ousting Saddam Hussein armies Kuwait while Washington turned blind Syria military efforts Lebanon War U S adopted policy Constructive Engagement Damascus Syria country state sponsors terror which U S diplomatic relations Fol lowing Gulf War Washington encour U S companies ConocoPhillips invest millions development Syria duction Last least George H W Bush Clinton Administrations called Syria military forces Lebanon presence occupation That changed early morning October Israeli bombed Palestinian training Syria handful kilometers outside Dam ascus To Syrians surprise United States ported attack citing Israel right defend itself against terror attack claimed Islamic Jihad earlier October As Syria hosted public relations fices Islamic Jihad other militant Palestinian groups administration Bush claimed Syria should accountable attack A later AJT Bush Administration lifted opposition Congressional Bill lined number penalties perceived Dam ascus transgressions includ alleged support Iraqi insurgents Lebanon support terrorism Called Syrian Ac countability Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act SALSA outlined potential punishments cluding U S exports Syria U S investment Syria Syrian airline flights U S restrictions movement Syrian diplo U S On Decem Bush signed months later slapped Syria U S export Syrian flights U S Bush added other possible penalties including using other legis lation Commercial Bank Syria Syria private sector largest Arab World terms assets money laundering institu An additional sanction allowed seizure property Syrian officials involved terrorism Pressure building since It increased following Syria influence extending Lebanon Syria President Emile Lahoud ational community response passage Secu Council Resolution which demanded Syria withdraw intelligence services Leba Hezbollah Shia Muslim party credited pushing Israeli forces Southern Lebanon disarmed When former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri assassinated Beirut February Syria Lebanese allies direct political responsible slaying France U S agreement negative pressure threats direct penalties offering carrots compliance course pursue Without litical stand Syrian President Assad withdraw military intelligence units Lebanon April before upcoming Leba parliamentary elections whose still unknown The international media covered Lebanese crisis little written about these pressures function opaque world Syrian The Syrian rally March showed interest developments First popular sentiment firmly President The Lebanon crisis every Syrians fully aware pressures bearing their country When U S sanctions announced against Syria Syrian officials media point number points which Washington penalties would little effect Syria trade U S about million Syrian compa would obtain products other sources notably China Europe Besides Syrians argued Europeans divided issue suring Syria numerous European Union programs actively supported Syrian reform United Nations Resolution pressures changed other reason every Syrians their country forces pulling Lebanon masse We trouble frien recently We trouble cause Lebanon anymore without someone attack insult Lebanon offers important everyday everyone knows EXTERNAL PRESSURE AND INTERNAL CONSOLIDATION I number Syrians asked How How could leadership extended Lebanese President Emile Lahoud other Maronite Christians always available It question indeed which there INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS clear answers Bad decisions major level usually smack extreme compromise It generally cepted Syria suffers severe internal political visions popular awareness grown since Bashar Assad Syria leadership following death father Hafez As shape divisions actually The popular terms describe divide New Guard Old Guard The former refers President Assad reformers rounding Old Guard refers conservative officials reign Hafez Assad resist change Exactly member difficult determine A number reform minded ministers State Planning Commission Abdullah Dardari known supported president Presi dential Advisor Nibras Fadel charge judicial reform among other reform issues After things Finance Minister Mohammed Hussein considered New Guard reformer origins Old Guard Ba Party A visit offices cates staff truly believe themselves Assad reform efforts But reform coming minis especially dealing serious issues finance banking reform indicate approach change closer conservatism Old Guard Concerning legendary Old Guard difficult compile suspects The frequently mentioned Vice Presi Abdul Halim Khaddam A former foreign minister dealt extensively Lebanon during darkest Lebanon War Khaddam wields vague power Syria His savvy western businessmen Syria Khaddam close friend Lebanese Prime Min ister Rafik Hariri known opposed extension Lahoud presi dential Khaddam family hails coastal Tartous Syria known Sunni families Foreign Minister Farouq Shara often included Old Guard Like Khaddam Shara Sunni hails Houran south Damascus toward Jordanian border A visit office visit system careful order efficiency tight security While Shara known tough Israel often aggres statements press concerning U S foreign policy Arab World cials ministry including Deputy Foreign Minister Walid Muallem known working President defuse current Lebanon start possible peace talks Israel Beyond short determine which minister falls Every ministerial office I visit person department deals external relations profess following President reform vision They controlled large assistants large graduates Faculty En glish Literature Damascus University speak language foreigners happen through their ministry doors They powerful people especially ministers speak foreign languages between EU UN reform programs countr decision making During every visit whatever ministry I sented number executive summaries reform plans large black binders outline draft legis lation presidential decrees always about signed These efforts borne fruit hundreds pieces legislation dealing variety AJT nomic social political issues passed But implementation counts problems piling Syria private banks which opened January years following sector nationalization continue burdened state inability issues stamp taxes fiscal charges common transactions which remain interest rates foreign currency regulations Following passage private legislation April state dragged implementing getting regulatory environment correct profitable operation banking Two years months duced system Syria private manag would allow profit With every complaint filed Central Bank Syria Ministry Finance promises problems haste Now issues resolved The question Why What holding Syrian To people attending rally March answer simple It Old Guard tester I asked responsible crisis Lebanon President Bashar wants change people around father Indeed today Syrians rallied around president It hardly unique phenomenon When political groups placed under external threat honored dicta decision making centralized hands persons order effectively threats It analogous powers U S President George Bush received passage Patriot Act following attacks Sep tember Centralized command different bureaucratic structures national security Something I learned tatorships popular sentiment still matters certain degree It simply gives leadership neuver This especially useful Syria where facto oligarchy slowly appeared years following death Hafez Assad June In immediate aftermath everything Syria seemed Bashar Assad legislation holding simple conference eyeglasses Dr Bashar trained ophthal mologist U K By Syrians began express skepticism reform would enough reform effectively Such disappointments added similar senti ments crackdown discussion forums sprung country following Bashar power These groups unlicensed toler based President acceptance speech before parliament July In speech Assad asked Syr respect opinions positions other activists believed signaled desire political opening By these groups closed slowly security services grounds advocating changing stitution among other offenses When prominent group tried register under As sociations Law NGO Syria refers NGOs simply associations security authori became alarmed closed group Leading crackdown reportedly Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam He considered Old Guard since When U S invaded Iraq tensions Syria influence Syria security services reased The internal reforms slowed farther ministers employ seemed increasingly reticent sions Syria seven major security agencies including military force political exter security Exactly reform decisions generally unknown hints Security agencies Syria involved monitoring individual activity They INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS insight country economic activities cially growing private sector activities Because Syria legal environment remains rooted socialist doctrine private sector actors learned skirt state officials leading increased corruption years Foreign currency strictions example continue force Syrians black market everyday business This tivity known state When million recently missing inform currency which moves currency between Lebanon Syria matter openly reported Syrian state press Security services police apprehended prits later reportedly returned money rightful owners Strange activity indeed state strictly forbids transferring currency Syria One friend recently since Security vices issues individual agents these legalities illegalities culprits heads making worry about State store Syrians therefore tribute chain command draining profits making business difficult conduct Many businessmen forces chase after larger contracts strings attached perpetu ating corruption circle Much Syria inability reform derives regime inability create positive incentives The ivate banks example higher salaries other businesses Syria They provide solid international training Lebanese Jor danian partners But three banks operat their impact still limited State financial insti tutions which suffer massive overstaffing receiving increased training expertise needed transform these dinosaurs cient institutions serve Syrian market Public salary increases years helped situation amounts employees still short those their private sector counter parts The government failed create incentives Syrians taxes The reasons clear As state relied revenues government expenses years Syrians become quite skillful avoiding taxman Oil production declined barrels depleted years state knows improve collection order balance books future In autumn Ministry Finance issued tically reducing simplifying This piece legislation drafted conjunction commerce industry which formally repre Syria business community While unexpected piece legislation increasing powers Ministry Finance carry inspections setting harsh penalties evasion angered business community The objection strong Ministry Finance forced pedal considerably saying measures would implemented slowly Last least reforms failed address issues accountability We trust state provide services Syrian entrepreneur After state operates It whatever wants Most Syrians greater state accountabil something Washington directly related degree democratization But Syrians spoke March rally while democratiza barrel Reform Syria frustrated protestor But Iraqi style It within outside As U S pressure increased Syrian senti opposing U S intervention Journalists media figures Syria paying attention pressure Washington While I meeting friends party translator local daily newspa approached asked detailed questions about Bush Administration policy constructive insta bility I taken aback The place I website Washington Institute Near East Policy influential Washington think sponsored American Israel Political Action Com mittee AIPAC Two different reports Institute director Robert Satloff describes Assad regime brittle should pressured submission The journalist cited almost verbatim subsection called The Road Damascus It interesting As administration works through daily plomacy Lebanon needs events Damascus The Assad regime probably brittle Middle East while Egyptian Saudi regimes example bristle U S democ efforts there built brakes U S pressure reservoirs institutional support countries Syria however different The United States interest survival Asad regime which itself minoritarian regime built fragile edifice intimidation Cracks Syrian regime quickly become fissures earthquakes cracks other countries could contained Given remarkably puerile Syrian foreign policy under Bashar Asad would useful U S planners studies possible AJT sources domestic instability their likely plications emphasis added It shocked Bureau chiefs foreign Arabic papers Damascus usually aware U S policy translator As I milled around party other Syrians discussing policy denly ignited What sources domestic insta bility asked employee mobile phone company Are planning cause problems I frankly Until recently I always discounted accusations against Washington purposely stirring trouble Arab World Iraq excepted I always pressure usually placed regimes through sanctions letters protests Given crowd intimate knowledge Wash Institute website article phrase The Bush Administration policy constructive stability Middle East opening argue otherwise Whatever message getting through Syrians before The Jasmine Revolution How these pressures impact Syria It anyone guess point there interesting indica tions The rally March distinguished there hardly Ba athist sight For response rallies neighboring Lebanon where protesters their party flags favor tional unity under banner Even statue Adnan Malki which Presidential residence without Ba athist decoration Ba athist marching songs completely replaced songs famous Lebanese singer Fairouz often sings Lebanon Syria natural beauty The Syrian party flags rally those SSNP which atures black field adorned white circle swastika insignia It reference Nazism rather indication Syria Ba athist dwindling Ba athism itself Arab doctrine Arab political unity confronting problems facing Arab World notably issue Israel Now symbols seems shifting toward something limited specific The SSNP vision politi unity authoritarian stigma represent Ba athism SSNP doctrine something Syrians Lebanese understand Syrians greater democracy American Iraq In background Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party SSNP party present March rally support Maybe political union these something emphasizes historical culture guistic undeni Syria Lebanon gether A lesser Greater Syria Damascus rumors about upcom Ba Party conference which regime announced would early June While remain pessi mistic conference produce anything President Assad reportedly about launch dubbed The Jasmine Revolution Some media groups already planting aromatic flower native Syria Lebanon Damascus anticipation event The movement include among other things changes constitution allow multiparty elections parties based ethnicity religion expansion NGOs similar other associations The latter works under auspices First Lady Asma Assad The former however something riously discussed years INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Current Fellows their Activities Alexander Brenner June CHINA With B A History Yale M A China Studies Johns Hopkins School Advanced International Studies Alex China examining country adapting economic cultural globalization following accession World Trade Organization Richard D Connerney January INDIA A lecturer Philosophy Asian Religions Philosophy Rutgers Iona College University Hawaii Manoa Rick Connerney spend years Phillips Talbot Fellow studying writing about intertwining religion culture politics India described former U S Ambassador John Kenneth Galbraith functioning anarchy Rick B A M A religion Wheaton College University Hawaii respectively Cristina Merrill ROMANIA Born Bucharest Cristina moved Romania United States mother father Learning English retaining Romanian majored American History Harvard College there became captain women tennis She received Master degree Journalism New York University worked several U S publications Adweek New York Times spend years Romania watching emerge darkness Ceauscescu regime presumed light membership European Union NATO Andrew J Tabler February SYRIA LEBANON Andrew lived studied worked Middle East since Rotary Foundation Ambassadorial Fellowship enabled begin Arabic language studies toward Master degree American University Cairo Following Master editorships Middle East Times Cairo Times before moving Turkey Lebanon Syria worked Senior Editor Oxford Business Group correspondent Economist Intelligence Unit His ICWA fellowship Beirut Damascus where report Lebanese affairs Syrian reform Matthew Z Wheeler October SOUTHEAST ASIA A former research assistant Rand Corporation Matt spent years looking proposals plans realities regional integration disintegration along Mekong River China Vietnam With B A liberal Sarah Lawrence M A Harvard East Asian studies Blakemore Fellowship Thai language studies Matt examined short conflicts Burma Thailand Laos Cambodia Jill Winder July GERMANY With B A politics Whitman College Walla Walla WA Master degree Art Curating Bard College Annandale Hudson NY Jill ICWA Donors Fellow looking Germany through ideas viewpoints contemporary artists Before months intensive study German language Berlin Thomas J Watson Fellow looking communist practice cultural politics transition former Soviet Czech Republic Slovakia Poland Croatia Hungary Latvia Romania Slovenia Ukraine Institute Fellows chosen basis character previous experience promise They young professionals funded spend minimum years carrying designed programs study writing outside United States The Fellows required report their findings experiences field month They write subject formally informally The result unique reporting analysis periodic assessment interna tional events issues Author Tabler Andrew J Title ICWA Letters Middle East North Africa ISSN Imprint Institute Current World Affairs Hanover NH Material Type Serial Language English Frequency Monthly Other Regions East Asia South Asia The Americas Europe Russia Sub Saharan Africa ICWA Letters ISSN published Institute Current World Affairs Inc exempt operating foundation incorporated New York State offices located West Wheelock Street Hanover NH 03755 The letters provided charge members ICWA available libraries profes sional researchers subscription Phone Fax E Mail valley Web address Executive Director Peter Bird Martin Program Administrator Brent Jacobson Publications Design Management Ellen Kozak Institute Current World Af fairs The Crane Rogers Foundation The information contained lication reproduced writer permission