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6/30/2005 - The Tsunami by Andrew J. Tabler

ICWA LETTERS Since Institute Current World Affairs Crane Rogers Foundation provided fellowships enable outstanding young professionals outside United States write about international areas issues An exempt operating foundation endowed Charles R Crane Institute supported contributions minded individuals foundations TRUSTEES Bryn Barnard Joseph Battat Mary Lynne Bird Steven Butler Sharon F Doorasamy Peter Geithner Gary Hartshorn Katherine Roth Kono Cheng Li Peter Bird Martin David Z Robinson Carol Rose John Spencer Edmund Sutton HONORARY TRUSTEES David Elliot David Hapgood Pat M Holt Edwin S Munger Richard H Nolte Albert Ravenholt Phillips Talbot Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation Four West Wheelock Street Hanover New Hampshire 03755 U S A AJT MIDDLE EAST Andrew Tabler Institute Fellow based Damascus Beirut studying Lebanes affairs Syrian reform The Tsunami By Andrew Tabler JUNE BEIRUT Lebanon Riding south rickety Mercedes along Leba coast toward Beirut I could myself think The radio music sounds shouting commotion The station micro phones could heard falling floor After about minutes torture voice suddenly pierced chaos Shut Up boomed The radio silent except muffled sound bodies rustling around microphones The voice Michel Aoun arriving Beirut International Airport following years exile France It I never thought I would Politics often defined possible Following assassination former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri February Syria hurried withdrawal Lebanon April major political reconfigurations since shocked Lebanese political system seems anything possible return nearly Lebanon brink destruction years country disastrous civil 1980s early Following initial outburst Aoun began orating As driver I listened Aoun speak reporters about minutes I watched driver response Aoun rambling speech which claimed primary responsibility Syria withdrawal Lebanon As Aoun ended press ference driver turned radio volume We looked other simultaneously raised eyebrows Well think I asked He speak tivated intelligent driver Mukh jeesh Military But where stands Or Aoun always enigma Preparing return exile predicted impact tsunami Lebanese power structure And indeed after return Aoun pulted himself Lebanese politics initial Thousands Aoun supporters greeted general rally Martyrs Square return success Lebanon recent Parliamentary elections grabbed international headlines Prior return vehemently Syrian In after negotiated forces opposition alliance demanded Syria Lebanon lowing Rafik Hariri assassination Hariri Baha Druze leader Walid Jumblatt Those talks quickly broke however In final stage election aligned himself party Free Patri Movement FPM Lebanon Syrian politi leaders Baha Hariri liamentary majority If loose cannon tsunami Aoun mixed metaphor since Or perhaps always General Michel Aoun Commander Lebanese Army President Amin Gemayal expired In months leading Gemayal departu various Leba factions tried consensus Maronite candi assume Lebanon powerful political Under confessionalism system tional religious power sharing place Christians majority President Maronite Christian Prime Minister Sunni Muslim Speaker Parliament Shi Muslim Consensus building Lebanon issues volves domestic international players however As Lebanon civil raged Lebanese candidates president This submitted informally Damascus whose forces occupied large parts Lebanon Shuttling forth between Damascus Beirut US Ambassador Richard Murphy claimed country preferred candidate Syrian President Hafez Assad refused instead nominated former Lebanese President Sulieman Franjiyyeh preferred ndidate Franjiyyeh jected Aoun Samir Geagea leader Leba Forces LF Christian militia Aoun himself Maronite Christian would stand Presidency would serve elected In reality Aoun negotiated behind scenes United States Syria become president When parties instead settled Maronite MP Mikhail Daher Aoun LF blocked Lebanese deputies assembling Daher August The result constitutional crisis On September minutes office Gemayal issued order appointing Aoun Prime Minister heading military government country confessionally balanced Military Council This broke rules Lebanon National Pact which Prime Minister Sunni Muslim Promptly three Muslim members Military Council resigned sitting Prime Minister Selim Hoss refused recognize Aoun government For Aoun refused recognize Hoss AJT ernment And since Lebanese constitution President falls vacant powers Presidency entrusted Council Ministers Aoun professed believe controlled Prime Ministry Presidency The result constitutional crisis showdown creation governments Aoun Ba Presidential Palace Hoss West Beirut Aoun controlled Lebanese Army which quickly implementing policy bringing Lebanese terri under control government Wars between militias devastated Lebanon various factions fought other behest warlord These conflicts internecine Shias fighting Shias Sunnis fighting Sunnis In early government Aoun gained respect Lebanese throughout country conflicts Divisions faced however efforts A meeting Lebanese Parliament convened Ta Saudi Arabia passed called Accord National Reconciliation Now known Ta Accord agreement outlined process reform Lebanese political system establish special relationship between Lebanon Syria framework initial redeployment Syrian forces Lebanon Biqa Valley years following hostilities Initially Aoun allowed deputies areas control travel Ta participate Following their return Aoun rejected agreement since Syria required under Ac carry complete withdrawal troops Lebanon Instead Aoun issued decree dissolving Par liament before could elect President Ta Agreement Parliament ignored order elected Rene Mouad president When Mouad assassinated weeks later Parl iament again elected Elias Hrawi While Aoun ignored election calling illegal Hrawi Hoss Parliament passed began implementation Ta Accord In meantime Aoun escalated offensive against militias He began blockade militia ports throwing Shi Amal movement Druze Popular Socialist Front PSP opposition Christian Marada Sulayman Franjiyyeh whose patron Syria Damascus called blockade violation international which Aoun declare War Liberation against Syrian forces Leba March Aoun until opposition Lebanese Forces Commander Samir Geagea threw weight behind Ta This began bizarre ultimately catastrophic phase where Christian fought Christian throughout East Beirut Civilians mountains Aoun forces launched successful offenses control Port Beirut LF material lifeline weapons plied Iraq Saddam Hussein As Aoun massive battles against LF ternational headlines international community Ta Lebanon quagmire As Washington began working behind scenes implement Ta sponsor Saudi Arabia Aoun became agitated In anger Aoun inter attract attention United States kidnap citizens cheeky erence Washington ongoing efforts American hostages Lebanon The Administration George H Bush closed embassy East Beirut Aoun isolated Aoun battles LF ended stalemate situation might continued indefinitely parties patron Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait August Washington needed Syria support isolate Hussein Although Bush Administration never admitted Syria support US effort Ir forces Kuwait exchange Washington tacit agreement Syria implement Ta Accord force On October Lebanese forces under command Emile Lahoud together Syrian Army units siege Ba Presidential Palace After promises fight Aoun escaped French Embassy exile Aoun promptly obscurity In 1990s founded Free Patriotic Movement FPM whose activists began protesting front Lebanese Syr embassies Paris elsewhere Europe By 1990s I first arrived Beirut Aoun laughing stock For Lebanese their vision Aoun something madman barking decrees Lebanese TV newscasts position enforce An Arabic proverb For nothing written Aoun launched comeback campaign follow attacks September especially among Washington growing community As Lebanon problem Syria Lebanese worked Syrians build Civil War order First foremost Aoun Lebanon sovereignty respected meant withdrawal Syrian troops Lebanese From until US invasion Iraq March current Bush Administration cooperated Damascus sharing intelligence Al Qaeda other Sunni fundamentalist groups Simultaneously US Congressmen began drafting legislation harsh sanctions Damascus In Congressional sanctions Aoun featured prominently claims author INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Syria Accountability Lebanon Sovereignty Restoration Act SALSA As US pressure mounted Syria Aoun began about return Lebanon Most observers completely dismissed matter especially since Lebanese government began charg against Aoun various transgressions began preparations abentia That changed around morning Feb ruary Former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri assassinated massive explosion Beirut Lebanese rallied streets holding Syria respon sible blast Despite counter demonstrations support Syria notably Hizbollah Syria Lebanon April tween That Aoun plans return Lebanon tsunami The metaphor strange outset Aoun immediately visited Rafik Hariri grave Martyrs Square where thousands FPM supporters massive rally They orange shirts reference recent Orange Revolution Ukraine On their shirts Greek letter omega scientific symbol resistance Demographically largely either under years We waiting General Aoun return Sonia claimed among human shields around Ba Palace during Aoun power He tried break Lebanon confessionalism charge going again Those under majority Aoun supporters enthusiastic We Aoun change Lebanon Layla There corruption damaging economy There Then named Walid encapsulated would thread running through Lebanese politics weeks The people running litical since Lebanon formed Walid These powerful political families political fiefdoms Its names father passed Aoun different He comes humble origins speaks Leba people political classes Indeed Michel Aoun Born Haret Harayk southern suburb Beirut lower middle class family Aoun entered Leba Military Academy Army training abroad notably France United States When civil broke Lebanon Aoun quickly climbed military ranks In early 1980s appointed commander Eighth Brigade Leba Army which played defending mountain Suq Gharb above Ba Presi dential Palace In Aoun defense palace falling under militia control preserved Lebanese state As reward Aoun appointed overall mander Lebanese Army He mously popular among troops front general mixed easily officers enlisted personnel alike He resisted political pressure Army purposely profile apparently avoid being sucked Lebanon sectarian When consti tutional crisis happened Aoun therefore independent force strong nationalist tendencies While ultimately failed maintain power emphasis Lebanon sovereignty independence still resonates Lebanon especially after Syrian pullout Seeds political message however ground which Immediately following return Aoun quickly dismissed Beirut chattering classes brash charlatan His taking credit kicking Syrians Lebanon through FPM activities efforts AJT capitals other voices calling Syria withdraw within Lebanon New opponents Syria Druze leader Walid Jumblatt Sunni leader Baha Hariri fortable Aoun brash style their opposition alliance It tactical mistake however because important Christians Lebanon without leader guide through elections When Syria pulled Lebanon grouping Maronite leaders against Syrian occupation called Qornet Shehwan Gathering began apart their Syrian withdrawal complete MP Nassib Lahoud respected independent Maronite aligned Hariri bring Christians This quickly broke however widespread concerns among Christians being strong armed Druze Sunni alliance The elections became sectarian Fadia popular woman magazine lives Metn region northeast Beirut Hariri using mufti Sunni religious leader Sunnis opposition This Lebanon How tolerate We democracy democ means choice matter Lebanon Parliamentary elections place stages Beirut seats May south seats June Mount central Lebanon seats June north seats seats June To government capture majority parliament seats In first round voting Sunni dominated Beirut Hariri swept seats The following Sunday Amal Hizbollah alliance captured seats Shi dominated south In third round voting June Christian dominated Mount Lebanon Aoun showed ability rally Christians Issuing secular electoral program called The Alternative Aoun rammed restore state Lebanon Well organized wrapped bright orange cover tailed reforms Revitalizing democratic institutions Re habilitating country armed forces Reforming judiciary Developing economic recovery Cleansing restructuring Lebanese administration Preserving environment Devising national roadmap centered Lebanese citizenship Rehabilitat Education Reviving initiative policy Defending public freedoms Ensuring access health services The might mundane produced erful positive reaction among reform hungry Leba those traditional political camps This first comprehensive I Lebanon owner Metn Bikfaya We normally support Kita Phlangist around Lebanese state needs corruption The motivation voters combat rampant corruption When Aoun arrived exile message opposing Syria Lebanon ensur Lebanese sovereignty independence cally synonymous Hariri Jumblatt position Given Rafik Hariri assassinated believed forces working Syria Hariri Jumblatt followers entment against Syria But Leba began ponder Just Syrian Hariri Jumblatt really During Syria occupation Lebanon Hariri Jumblatt worked closely Damascus sician Mount Lebanon They their Syrian money business deals Hariri built palaces Assads Syria charge To popularity among Lebanese Aoun began opening files Lebanese intelligence vices gathered corrupt activities Lebanese officials during Syrian occupation Such announce ments hailed throughout Christian areas largely counter balance Hariri rising power With Leba INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Forces leader Samir Geagea Aoun quickly became charismatic national leader Christians looking Thus elections June Aoun FPM alliance captured seats The opposition movement ability majority suddenly A turned final round tions northern Lebanon which included Chris Sunni Muslim areas With solid victory under clearly Hariri Jumblatt opposition alliance Aoun decided hatchet before He aligned FPM Suleiman Franjiyyieh perhaps Syrian politician Lebanon When announcement election alliance aired TV I I worked myself To I journeyed north friend Reuters hitting three major communities election We first arrived coastal largely Sunni Muslim Tripoli around Visiting three polling tions surrounded canvassers orange shirts working Aoun Hariri Amal Hizbollah alliances respectively Tripoli would hands Hariri In Lebanon there actually official ballot Citizens required their candidates which contain certain number candidatesfromeach Lebanon sects So example Hariri alliance dominated Sunnis virtue However Hariri contained certain number Maronite Ortho Christian candi dates This ensured matter ratio Muslim Chris deputies would formula outlined Ta Accord But remembering which candidates longed which fession difficult So canvassers distributed printed lists voters could their station Only idealists colleague Reuters their lists In Tripoli solidly behind Hariri voiced cerns about corruption We better lives Mohammed Sunni Muslim engineer I voted Hariri something about thieves government It clean things It hardly surprising since Mufti Lebanon running around Tripoli telling Sunnis their Hariri But I would about corruption meaning Aoun message about opening files getting through In Zaghorta Franjiyyieh there doubt would Photos Franjiyyieh smiling youth stories tered everything light posts buildings Poll station canvassers overwhelmingly wearing orange shirts Aoun Franjiyyieh alliance A attractive women shirts around their heads doing their Hariri Sulieman Franjiyyieh Lebanese politician tells really Mariam student His father leads Repeating similar statements would waste paper interesting seehow deeply embedded Franjiyyieh minds Zaghorta dents In Aoun emphasis corruption mentioned single voter spoke exiting polls Instead example dressed black friendly wrinkled grabbed Reuter colleague crowd canvassers began hopping spewing gibberish accounts Franjiyyieh virtues We drove mountain Bsharre Maronite Christian stronghold Samir Geagea LF which alignment Muslim opposition As Geagea therefore banned running elections beautiful Strida Geagea stead Massive posters Strida throughout Bsharre dominating otherwise quaint village Geagea support dressed white shirts LF symbols packed streets their sports beeping their horns playing LF marching music sound level Young shaved heads short cropped macho walked streets LF flags often flanked young women dressed tight stylish wraps We demand Samir Geagea released Tony shopkeeper He supported Ta Accord other militia leaders remained He opposed Syria however Since Syria My colleague I returned Zaghorta dinner driving along mountain roads sharp curves As stunning talked impres sions polls Zahorta Bsharre basically political plantations Many giant posters adorn streets northern cities streets visited accented posters candidate ground their father faces figures lightly ciled background We agreed neither would election despite speaking voters As colleague called editor pitch story about father election posters northern Leba I anxiously drove through election traffic Zaghorta snail My tired engag clutch Suddenly there sound multiple gunshots Staring ahead I could Franjiyyieh supporters firing rifles It seemed victory Aoun Franjiyyieh least Zaghorta After taking dinner mountain fajitas while colleague laptop typed story headed mountain towards Beirut The setting beautiful raining streams orange yellow light across mountains green Approaching Beirut tuned Lebanese national radio results Early results close leading radio announcers predict result I stiff drink I morning coffee turned Lebanese radio To surprise Hariri Jumblatt opposition alliance swept seats enough government total seats A Tsunami seemed severe storm blown itself Given mixed reactions found voters exiting polls I surprised about opposition landslide After taking shower shorts linen shirt bearing humid Beirut summertime I headed downtown Casper Gambini I stayed Casper using internet connection sucking lattes receiving friends Everyone I talked election results north Everyone theory about Hariri victory A Lebanese Christian friend information Hariri making payouts north citizens willing opposition The north especially parts Tri Qora Akkar region Lebanon poorest areas During I driven through Akkar Qora stupid there But again I guess voters polls received hundred dollars Hariri would hardly about least anytime Another journalist friend I later heard reports Hariri regional supporter Saudi Arabia purchased large numbers various types machinery delivered Akkar farmers INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Aoun supporters continue sport orange T shirts adorned Omega resistance symbol exchange promises against Aoun When I asked evidence porting claim based reports residents In leading round elections reports circulated Syrian agents specifically intelligence agents running around traditionally Syrian north encouraging voters support ironically Aoun Franjiyyieh alliance If might backfired politically In Damascus Franjiyyieh their strongest Lebanon friend Franjiyyieh matter friend Damascus This course would possible Syrian forces Lebanon But following Syrian withdrawal Aoun might Damascus mortal enemy And Aoun shown quarter pursuing agenda cleaning Leba He clear favorite become Maronite Christian President Lebanon Brace yourselves Tsunami Source Salem Paul Two Years Living Dangerously General Awn Pre carious Rise Lebanon Second Republic Beirut Review Institute Fellows chosen basis character previous experience promise They young professionals funded spend minimum years carrying designed programs study writing outside United States The Fellows required report their findings eriences field month They write subject formally informally The result unique reporting analysis periodic assessment interna tional events issues Author Tabler Andrew J Title ICWA Letters Middle East North Africa ISSN Imprint Institute Current World Affairs Hanover NH Material Type Serial Language English Frequency Monthly Other Regions East Asia South Asia The Americas Europe Russia Sub Saharan Africa ICWA Letters ISSN published Institute Current World Affairs Inc exempt operating foundation incorporated New York State offices located West Wheelock Street Hanover NH 03755 The letters provided charge members ICWA available libraries professional researchers subscription Phone Fax E Mail valley Web address Executive Director Peter Bird Martin Program Administrator Brent Jacobson Administrative Publications Manager Ellen Kozak Institute Current World Af fairs The Crane Rogers Foundation The Information contained lication reprinted repub lished without express written consent Institute Current World Affairs