© 2007 Institute of Current World Affairs
The Institute awards long-term fellowships to develop a deep understanding of an issue, country, or region outside the US and to share that understanding with a wider public.
Institute of Current World Affairs - Home Page

Below is a hobbled text version of a PDF document.
In order to read the actual document please click the link below and register if necessary.
(One-time registration is free and very quick.)
Read article

8/15/2005 - The Ties That Unwind by Andrew J. Tabler

ICWA LETTERS Since Institute Current World Affairs Crane Rogers Foundation provided fellowships enable outstanding young professionals outside United States write about international areas issues An exempt operating foundation endowed Charles R Crane Institute supported contributions minded individuals foundations TRUSTEES Bryn Barnard Joseph Battat Mary Lynne Bird Steven Butler Sharon F Doorasamy Peter Geithner Gary Hartshorn Katherine Roth Kono Cheng Li Peter Bird Martin Dasa Obereigner David Z Robinson Carol Rose John Spencer Edmund Sutton HONORARY TRUSTEES David Elliot David Hapgood Pat M Holt Edwin S Munger Richard H Nolte Albert Ravenholt Phillips Talbot Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation Four West Wheelock Street Hanover New Hampshire 03755 U S A AJT MIDDLE EAST Andrew Tabler Institute Fellow based Damascus Beirut studying Lebanese affairs Syrian reform The Ties Unwind By Andrew Tabler AUGUST DAMASCUS Syria BEIRUT Lebanon Walk Levantine street these strike conversation anyone earful As international media focus their attention investigation assassination former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri nationalist sentiments sides Anti Lebanon Mountain Range Lebanon Syrian border boiling Anti Syrian feeling running higher Lebanon cially following arrest August Lebanon security chiefs charges murder Hariri death UN special investigator Devlet Mehlis inquiry toward Damascus depending findings could implicate upper echelons Syrian regime assassination Many Leba believe scenario could international tribunal pursue possible UN sanctions against Damascus Syrians increasingly venting their disdain Lebanese Everyday Syrians mourned death Hariri February increasingly Mehlis investigation particular Syria historical influence Lebanon general being weapons international community further isolate regime President Bashar Assad Anony Syrian government officials describe investigation itself politiciz designed snare Syria The nationalist media campaigns following Hariri assassination Febru popular political backs never before How happen An extra Syrian security measure enforced along borders Lebanon July August Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora forming first Syrian government seems sparked Levantine tendency revenge politics Fueling smolder however varie fears surrounding Washington seriousness pursuing policies pressuring Syria constructive instability Arab World With Mehlis report released October showdown Hariri assassination seems The blockade Trips across Lebanese Syrian frontier process Citizens countries small present their identity papers migration authorities Traffic along Beirut Damascus heavily traveled routes Arab World become brisk tries agreed years consolidate their respective immigration windows customs points jointly administered buildings bound sides It seemed several kilometer neutral directly border itself relic Consolidating immigration customs latest Lebanon Syria special relationship outlined Taif Agreement modifi cation Lebanese Constitution implemented Syria which Muslims ceived greater governmental control The followed introduction special telephone network 1990s calls national calls requiring international Special agreements concluded between Lebanon Syria Jordan standardized paperwork eased passage automobiles On Syria morning Hariri assassination I member sitting outside opened Lebanese addition Syrian immigration building thinking border formalities communica tions between countries increasingly resembled those between US Canada Well least Syrian Lebanon still share country With Hariri assassination progress brotherly projects stopped The finished freshly painted Lebanese addition Syrian immigration complex close covered heavy layer In June residents countries crossing frontier listened intently radios follow accusa tions counter accusations between Beirut Dam ascus murder investigation treated surprise inspection beyond Syrian customs house vehicles coming going Leba I gotten increased security measures earlier friend lunch Dam ascus As I exited Syrian customs route Beirut later I could lined front Plain clothed mukhabarat agents automatic weapons searched opening inspecting their contents One agent New York Yankees baseball What looking I asked driver They explosives But I think killing driver replied Coming Syria strict They looking everything As pointed incoming I denly noticed trucks parked Agents searching incoming could pulling anything questioning content It passed checkpoint minutes later I scale security procedure The trucks coming extended nearly kilometers Truck drivers camped shade under their trail sleeping chatting drinking Their vehicles Syrian Lebanese Jordanian Gulf country plates reminiscent Arab Summit instant I witnessing blockade For months Syrian security slowly searched every truck going Syria Lebanon The neutral suddenly transformed parking Two weeks crisis trucks lined abreast almost kilometers Television crews descended crossing Lebanon newspapers erupted country Syrian leaders turns bashing Damascus intimidating Lebanon In storm center Prime Minister Siniora desperately trying government Syrian alliance fragmented Lebanon confessional political system which cates political posts according religious faith While opposed security Siniora struck careful exculpatory addressing block On streets Beirut people pecially Christian East Beirut Statements along lines screw Syria common advocated going alone Lebanon claimed Syria anyway The right Christian Lebanese Forces support saying things Hey Syrian doing Fadi Maronite Christian handyman Syrian Der I Lebanese I Syrian thank God They someone Syrian looking Such Syrian sentiments sharp contrast Siniora conciliatory actions Syrian government How paradox explained Siniora economist training financier fession As Hariri chief moneyman dating 1980s Minister Finance premier cabinets Siniora essentially Lebanon economic maestro His cautious response border crisis largely attributed intricacies forming Leba government input Maronite Chris presidency Syria Emile Lahoud In early August Siniora after forming government Damascus President Assad solve border crisis Both leaders agreed implement proved security regime along Lebanese border The crisis immediately lessened pletely solved until August extra Syrian curity measure lifted Economic realities What Siniora seemed remember political dictum When tight worry about things control At blockade international investigation Hariri death already swing meticulous Mehlis questioned cials Lebanon His investigation reportedly aided considerably defector Col Zouhari Safi worked Syrian intelligence claims explosives Hariri purchased Slovakia Siniora careful political seemed recognition Lebanon heavy reliance Syria Lebanon economic performance since assassination economic growth timated reach In story Lebanese prefer overlook In first Syria Lebanon number export market exports totaling million exports Imports Syrian goods period totaled million representing Lebanese imports overall Syrian exports Lebanon relies Syria products Mutton phosphates fruit vegetables legumes dairy products Syria relies Leba paper products cement aluminum marble sugar juice water alcohol What would happen economic relations short medium The above cates could alone terms import sourcing This would likely increase prices sides however Syrian Liquefied Petro Gas LPG exports Lebanon extremely petitive transport costs Lebanon Syria subsidized prices products Lebanon paper industry example region sourcing paper products elsewhere Turkey Egypt would likely prices Syrian market The economic fallout severed would impact Syria state owned energy sector Leba speculated Syria rapidly growing private sector which accounts around Syria exports Lebanon To offset losses Lebanese Syrian producers could larger alternative Turkey which Syria concluded trade agreement But agreement phased number years while customs products tween Lebanon Syria abolished reori entation Syrian exports currently going Lebanon would process For Lebanon however impact would substantial Last Syria Lebanon third largest export market after Iraq Switzerland totaling million according Lebanese Customs statistics But reorienting Lebanese exports would likely lematic country higher relative production prices result Lebanese Lira current LL1507 US dollar The important artificially inflates public sector salaries benefits essentially dollarized economy Lebanese competitive Syrian market virtue customs environment between countries transport costs Making Syrian export market Arab Gulf stiffer competition global producers other Arab countries Saudi Arabia Egypt where multinationals located production facilities years would difficult Chances Lebanese could their goods effectively world markets without Syria The Damascus chose heighten security restrictions Lebanese frontier Syrian government Beirut taking shape Mehlis investigation shifting should surprise It transit goods Lebanese Syrian economic relationship takes different largely geographic dimension With border north Syria southern border Israel closed since except during periods Israeli occupation western coastline facing Mediterranean Lebanon completely depen Syria exporting goods overland Coming grips Lebanon overland transit INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS involves number crunching According Lebanese Ministry Economy overall Lebanese exports including services totaled billion In terms general trade material goods excluding services tourism exports Lebanese Customs figures total billion Of Lebanon export markets Middle East 339bn including Iraq Syria UAE Turkey Saudi Arabia Kuwait Jordan Egypt Qatar Iran How those goods traverse Syria Accord Syrian Central Bureau Statistics which breaks transit trade country origin destination Lebanese transit trade through Syria totaled around million million going UAE Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Saudi Arabia Turkey Jordan million going other tries which include Iraq Iran Combining Lebanese figures exports Syria million Syrian figures transit trade Lebanese origin million means around million around Lebanese general trade overall trade involved goods crossing Syrian frontier Then there growing business transit goods through Lebanon onward Arab World According Lebanese Customs figures which broken country origin country destination making difficult determine directions trade transit goods totaled record million million million The reason Given transit trade quadrupled starting July seems assume Lebanese shippers tapped securely supplying US occupied Iraq In first months transit totaled around million Sanctions busting smuggling Good figures informal trade between Lebanon Syria difficult estimates ranging hundreds thousands millions dollars According Syrian Syrian importers required import goods directly their country origin Syrian seaports The exception concerns current US export goods US content other medicine Syria which element Syrian Accountability Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act SALSA imple mented US Congress President Bush proval May Syrian companies seeking US ponents allowed purchase these goods other markets According Syrian businessmen Lebanon Dubai sources export US goods Syria given country higher standard living sophisticated markets The range ported goods Syria whatever offer export market Syrian businessmen Lebanon largely components vital computers networking Until recently Lebanese Syrians carried stantial quantities goods across frontier sonal reality black market business trade Syria military security presence Lebanon powerful ancillary benefit customs procedures sides border extremely After coming power Bashar Assad historically tight customs procedures relaxed leading first construction several superstores Chtaura Lebanon border where Syrians heading could purchase anything goods Business brisk years Assad cousin Rami Makhlouf constructed massive Duty Free neutral going Syria complete supermarket electronic pharmacy Dunkin Doughnuts The Duty Free facility structed inbound Damascus running Duty Free facilities throughout world passengers exiting country Exactly trade worth unknown systematic enough shopkeepers Dam ascus openly admitted being supplied various US goods officially under Syria import restriction This process become difficult however shortly after security procedures tightened Syrian frontier Syrian customs reverted Bashar Today passengers crossing Syria difficulty bringing bottles Lebanese cases water Syrian Duty Free became thing ghost bustling witnessed there since opening And consumer US origin goods previously available Syr shops disappeared In terms overall informal trade Syria dependent Lebanon market source goods fueling Syria growing appetite globalized products Customs regulations changed however Coca Cola Pepsi KFC available Damascus Syrian suppliers Ready crisis Hariri assassination associated blockade could indeed first toward cutting Lebanon traditional Syria consumer outside world Since foundation Lebanon needed cheap medium skilled foreign labor After civil demand increased carry government ongoing reconstruction plans service private sector businesses vidual homes Since Syrians right Lebanese family members remain Lebanon foreign labor source Estimates Syrian laborers Lebanon between million At Lebanese state introduce other foreign laborers country largely Lebanon lengthy expensive residency permit procedures which inclusive insur total Such increased tandem Lebanese state desperate attempt problem Attempts regulate Syrian labor Lebanon spotty Following Syria assassination pullout Lebanon April Lebanese politicians Syrian laborers should registered given permits This sentiment echoed Syrian President Assad Little seems Lebanese regulate Syrian labor small Sinior weeks battle government June July Somewhat ironically Syria taken steps encourage Syrians In August standard Syrian increased SP SP No explanation given Far attention Leba labor Syria According Syrian Lebanese Higher Council which regulates relations between countries Lebanese currently Syria This figure widely believed inflated Syrian government officials I spoken Getting handle Lebanese labor Syria ficult forming estimates Syrian labor Leba since Lebanese Syrian families house holds overlap This being utilization Lebanese expertise highlighted during recent crackdown illegal Lebanese labor Syria Beginning July blockade Syrian police showed Syria private sector banks country mobile phone companies All Syrians without papers taken Lebanese border dropped According number personal sources inside Syria private sector banks Lebanese vital training Syrians staffing banks Syrians little experience banking following years state monopoly finance Implementing international procedures major challenge banks deposits piling Private bankers Lebanese vital training credit managers several respects First foremost procedures called credit culture Syrian private banks Lebanese involvement learn first their experienced Lebanese terparts under circumstances Sec course Lebanese Arabic language skills essary explain institu procedures In terms finance Lebanon Syria intertwined While millions dollars flowing Syria private sector banks following their opening years after their nationaliza Lebanon remains Syria piggy estimates varying widely hundreds millions billions dollars deposits And since Lebanese banks volved majority Syria private banking tures between Lebanese Syrian finance seems remain enmeshed foreseeable future In private conversations bankers sides border going alone would difficult economies For example Lebanese institutions known substantial Syrian deposits including Banque Liban Outre Mer BLOM Banque Europ Moyen Orient BEMO Bank Audi Bank Byblos heavily invested Lebanese treasury bills which offer returns Lebanese state whose billion amounts staggering GDP afloat On Syrian regulatory ronment private banks still restrictive since Syr state tries substantial issues concerning interest rates exchange rates introduction quidity facilities A majority Syrian traders still Letters Credit Lebanese banks import goods In bankers separating systems something happen during Leba War would painful process since Leba needs funds Syria banking system still needs substantial overhaul function properly Syrian sentiments More interesting slightly harder Syrian reactions blockade Traditionally everyday Syrians large passive toward political velopments legacy authoritarian Hafez Assad An ancillary benefit Bashar Assad opening country Syrians INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD A FFAIRS speak candidly about political affairs Syria military security Lebanon between Syr swallow By large Syrians ambivalent about Syrian military presence Leba rightfully They attributed political arrangement between US Saudi Arabia Syria Lebanon implementation Taif Accord Syria dirty enforcing Taif working Lebanese allies military operations disarm those Tens sands Syrian soldiers their lives Lebanon civil highest casualty rates coming conclusion At departure ceremony Riyaq military Lebanon Bekaa Valley April Syrian Lebanese military brass political leaders speeches praising Syria stabilizing Lebanon In ceremony surreal Under front French colonial buildings ments dedicated those fallen Levant campaigns World War II squads Lebanese Syrian soldiers dressed green berets respectively sembled formation After every major stanza speech praising Syria Syria soldiers blurted nafdika Bashar spirit blood sacrifice ourselves Bashar Assad The Lebanese formations would respond Lebanese after positive points about Lebanon When formations marched together distinctive cadences The Syrian troops piled transports whisked motherland Elsewhere however cordial Many monuments Syria defaced throughout Lebanon including statues Hafez Assad Even statue Basil Assad Bashar older brother killed automobile accident 1980s removed village Chtaura Damascus Road defacement It replaced Lebanese Army light armor which supports Lebanese Army units manning former Syrian checkpoints At reports Syria workers being tacked circulated throughout Lebanon cases being murdered News attacks resonated throughout Syrian community causing Syrians I Syria Hariri killed Fadi Maronite Christian Syrian handyman So I stayed Syria since colleagues returned Syria being attacked killed I later since I missing It people angry toward The exodus substantial construction sites ground Leaders Lebanon construction companies builder associations quoted newspapers weeks after Hariri saying Syrian labor could replaced future Syrian newspapers picked attacks causing Syrians react defensively accusations Syrian involvement Hariri murder But large Syrians I spoke aftermath assassination sympathized certain extent Lebanon situation We there young entrepreneur early March We selves situation where responsible their security Since happened watch responsible After waves rallies counter rallies between those demanding Syrian pullout those supporting Syria raged February March AJT which Syrian rallies Damascus AJT elsewhere situation calmed especially after Syria nounced March would withdraw forces Lebanon Syrians watched Lebanon Syr alliance broke pieces ahead elections May AJT Most S yrians expressed surprise about appeared shallow roots Lebanon Cedar Revolution We hands owner They others selves together Just Its better there While Syrian alliance Hariri porters Walid Jumblatt Druze Popular Socialist Party Samir Geagea right Christian based Lebanese Forces election forming government proved going Saad Hariri Rafik dubbed experienced navigate Lebanese politics In stead Hariri family looked Fouad Siniora Problem Lebanon multi fessional system requires extensive negotiations essentially cabinet filled means quota system Negotiations dragged weeks It Lebanese politics disarray Assad blockade place As Lebanese politicians lashed Damascus closure notably publisher Metn region MP Gibran Tueni pages daily newspaper An Nahar Syrians across social spectrum often appeared almost They think independent anything employee European Union project Damascus And Tueni think We showing exactly needs In middle upper class Syrians weekend vacation Beirut elected spite I house Hamra West Beirut I owner graphic design house We Syria This Tueni control There plenty modern restaurants nightclubs Beirut Why should I there anymore In another month textile imports fashions Syria I closed counts Lebanon moved private sector banks Syria Its alone Fears resulting assassination attacks Syrian workers Lebanon dissipate If I Verdun I something European Union employee Someone might something My Syr license plates after According conversa tions Syrian workers fears might keeping reality least under current cumstances It better right Hariri assassination Rose housekeeper lived worked Lebanon years minority Syrian workers dency permit They things there Maybe because I I speak mostly Lebanese dialect As I heard Tueni resonating throughout Syrian capital reminded things changed Syria An Nahar Syria available decades This around Tueni Syrian rhetoric increased Syria media picked daily reports As speed internet connections spread throughout Syria middle upper class Syrians An Nahar The internet changed dynamics between Lebanon Syria accountant It government wealthy people going outside Syria Now different The people behind Assad because border restric tions emphasized security revenge He proud again Every insult Syria Assad position people stronger Waiting verdict Somehow Tueni realized crossed Syrians After featuring number reports Syria Lebanese officials tables would future Tueni Paris where Saad Hariri living under tight security since shortly after parliamentary elections As blockade dragged Mehlis investigation tinued closer joined LF Samir Geagea Walid Jumblatt After arrest Lebanese Internal Security Forces Major General Ali Hajj former military intelligence Brigadier INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS General Raymond Azar former Presidential Guards Brigadier General Mustafa Hamdan former Sur G nerale Major General Jamil Sayyed charges murder attempted murder their discussions reportedly turned replace Lebanese President Emile Lahoud should forced resign Apparently Hariri Jumblatt working together block Michel Aoun taking position favor flexible candidate See AJT Just investigation implicate Syria remains anyone guess Mehlis questioning Assad inner circle seems dicate could reach As probe continues Lebanese worried United States Syria leave Lebanon While Christian Lebanese probe brings Assad house politically savvy Lebanese pushing Syrian accountability Hariri murder spell future The United States enough forces Syrian reply Mehlis report Sword Damocles hanging Damascus Elie Fawaz Lebanese political observer If Washing Syrians think anything future American threats seriously Then Syr really dangerous Lebanon throughout region They playing dirty forever In Syria people probe leading Iraq instability I afraid divide Syria Syrian consultant writer We happened Iraq happen That Syrians behind Assad They government leader In believe Syria Institute Fellows chosen basis character previous experience promise They young professionals funded spend minimum years carrying designed programs study writing outside United States The Fellows required report their findings experiences field month They write subject formally informally The result unique reporting analysis periodic assessment interna tional events issues Author Tabler Andrew J Title ICWA Letters Middle East North Africa ISSN Imprint Institute Current World Affairs Hanover NH Material Type Serial Language English Frequency Monthly Other Regions East Asia South Asia The Americas Europe Russia Sub Saharan Africa I CWA Letters ISSN published Institute Current World Affairs Inc exempt operating foundation incorporated New York State offices located West Wheelock Street Hanover NH 03755 The letters provided charge members ICWA available libraries professional researchers subscription Phone Fax E Mail valley Web address Executive Director Peter Bird Martin Program Administrator Brent Jacobson Administrative Publications Manager Ellen Kozak Institute Current World Af fairs The Crane Rogers Foundation The Information contained lication reprinted repub lished without express written consent Institute Current World Affairs