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10/23/2005 - Op Ed: How to Deal with Syria: Find out who’s in Charge by Andrew J. Tabler

ICWA LETTERS Since Institute Current World Affairs Crane Rogers Foundation provided fellowships enable outstanding young professionals outside United States write about international areas issues An exempt operating foundation endowed Charles R Crane Institute supported contributions minded individuals foundations TRUSTEES Bryn Barnard Joseph Battat Mary Lynne Bird Steven Butler Sharon F Doorasamy Peter Geithner Gary Hartshorn Katherine Roth Kono Cheng Li Peter Bird Martin Dasa Obereigner David Z Robinson Carol Rose John Spencer Edmund Sutton HONORARY TRUSTEES David Elliot David Hapgood Pat M Holt Edwin S Munger Richard H Nolte Albert Ravenholt Phillips Talbot Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation Four West Wheelock Street Hanover New Hampshire 03755 U S A AJT MIDDLE EAST Andrew Tabler Institute Fellow based Damascus Beirut studying Lebanese affairs Syrian reform October Dear Peter Hope Attached Op Ed piece I written dealing October release Detlev Mehlis report investigation death Former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri If I magazine newspaper correspondent based Syria Lebanon I would written Many questions surround investigation which expected continue until As Mehlis tries bottom Levantine mystery I believe question remains central Washington policy Syria Is Bashar Assad fully control Syria The behind piece years fully surfaced confidential widely distributed version Mehlis report leaked friend October While first glance looked simple report flick tracking function Microsoft Word final showing arkup showed something There margins document final edits A little navigation program showed UN Special Representative Terje Roed Larsen United Nations Office Vienna UNOV apparently changes The corrections hours before report release Also surprise there paragraph deleted names Bashar brother Maher Assad brother Military Intelligence MI Asef Shawkat former MI chief Hassan Khalil former political security chief Bahjat Sulieman Lebanon former S G Jamil Sayyid As I spent morning phone friends trying tracked changes suddenly subtle become Make mistake about Washington trying crack Assad regime I think going smoothly White House might think Syria resources experience But doesn blame George W Bush pursuing Assad regime After president unclear charge Why bother I report I editing reports navigate tracking yourself Best regards Andrew How Syria Find charge U nited Nations investigator Detlev Mehlis implication senior Lebanese Syrian officials Valentine Day Beirut assassination former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri already firestorm debate pressure Damascus comply ongoing investigation As toward Syrian Presi Bashar Assad imperative Washing opportunity deter worth dealing Damascus For nearly years I worked journalist researcher Syria covering country called process Over dinners diplomats other foreign visitors Beirut Damascus question arises frequently every Is Bashar Assad truly control Syria CNN Christiane Amanpur asked Assad question himself Assad answer You cannot dictator control Or Since Bashar power July everything reform Damascus reticence troops Lebanon blamed Assad weakness guard regime remain Bashar father Hafez When affected relations United States notably Washington demands Damascus block insur gents entering neighboring Iraq United States changed Syria policy constructive engage constructive instability This included increased sanctions threats reported cross skirmishes along Iraqi Syrian ntier And notably there conspicuous incentives behavior Then Mehlis report looming U S official confirmed rumors Washington offered Damascus Lebanon accused involvement Hariri assassination exchange halting alleged support Iraqi insurgency ending interference Lebanese fairs cutting support Hizbollah Palestinian groups reject prochement Israel Damascus reportedly turned offer It perhaps understandable proposal nowhere since unclear there anyone Syria enough authority effect write foreign policy years The widely distributed version Mehlis report accurate indicates fragmented regime might actually The possibility president brother brother themselves anize assassination Middle Eastern states shows least Syria might ruled committee We someone committee position tiate United States sanctions process rumbles forward Sanctions themselves could disas trous creating chaos thing America needs chaos another Middle Eastern country Multilateral pressure increase nationalist sentiments regime paranoia hamstring already troubled process Damascus reform heavily assisted sustained UN European Union projects Increased multilateral pressure regime could politicize Syria already limited reform space grinding progress Such situation needs avoided costs Syria lation growth percent combined pitifully labor capital productivity means current unemployment levels would increase something could serve Islamic radical Syria region So instead simply using Hariri investigation Damascus brink through sanctions watch country abyss Washington should Assad chance prove charge Syria It could offer carrot along sanctions stick Allowing reopening pipeline between Iraqi Kirkuk Syrian Medi terranean Banias Assad operating without sabotage would first determining degree which controls Syria guard truly lifting This would Washington troubles porting Iraqi Assad Syrian people material incentive bilize neighbor And perhaps importantly would peaceful solution crisis US region There signs Assad position Following Hariri assas sination February appears Assad consolidating power Several ranking officials tired during Ba Party confer June Interior Minister Ghazi Kanan possible rival Assad officials calling suicide At least America needs someone inside Assad regime But Assad regime necessarily The regime plenty experience surviving sieges however chaotic Damascus under US sanctions since plenty practice sneaking around It about billion reserves equivalent about three years worth current imports Syria Ba athists masters waiting Even Bashar outwit outplay George W Bush history shows Assad outlast Ameri presidents Dear Reader An edited version article accepted Int ernational Herald Tribune Oct PBM ICWA Letters ISSN published Institute Current World Affairs Inc exempt operating foundation incorporated New York State offices located West Wheelock Street Hanover NH 03755 The letters provided charge members ICWA available libraries professional researchers subscription Phone Fax E Mail valley Web address Executive Director Peter Bird Martin Program Administrator Brent Jacobson Administrative Publications Manager Ellen Kozak Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation The Information contained publication reprinted republished without express written consent Institute Current World Affairs