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2/15/2006 - Blowing off Steam by Andrew J. Tabler

ICWA LETTERS Since Institute Current World Affairs Crane Rogers Foundation provided fellowships enable outstanding young professionals outside United States write about international areas issues An exempt operating foundation endowed Charles R Crane Institute supported contributions minded individuals foundations TRUSTEES Bryn Barnard Joseph Battat Mary Lynne Bird Steven Butler Sharon F Doorasamy Peter Geithner Gary Hartshorn Katherine Roth Kono Cheng Li Peter Bird Martin Dasa Obereigner David Z Robinson Carol Rose John Spencer Edmund Sutton HONORARY TRUSTEES David Elliot David Hapgood Pat M Holt Edwin S Munger Richard H Nolte Albert Ravenholt Phillips Talbot Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation Four West Wheelock Street Hanover New Hampshire 03755 U S A AJT MIDDLE EAST Andrew Tabler Institute Fellow based Damascus Beirut studying Lebanese affairs Syrian reform Blowing Steam By Andrew Tabler FEBRUARY DAMASCUS Syria The storming several Western embassies Damascus February protesters enraged caricatures Prophet Mohammed European newspapers grabbed international headlines TV channels Security forces looked demonstrators stoned burned Danish Swedish Chilean Norwegian embassies repel finally assault French embassy hours later The Bush administration holding Syria responsible assault similar protests across Arab World saying violent demonstrations Syria place without govern knowledge support The still state culpability embassies incident excellent study authoritarian states under external stress safety valves internal pressures strengthen regime Blow For weeks Syrians talking about caricatures prophet Muhammad first featured September right center Danish newspa Jyllands Posten By January states throughout Arab World manded Danish government apologize incident Danish Prime Minis Anders Fogh Rasmussen refusal because government control media would violate freedom speech short Syr expectations Pan Arab Al Arabiya Al Jazeera television began running stories boycott Danish products several Arab Gulf countries Student groups throughout Arab world started protesting front Danish institutions notably embassies cultural centers On morning February banner wielding testers began gathering Rouda Sqaure Damascus would biggest diplomatic incident since storming American Ambassador residence response US coalition strikes Iraq Around demonstrators marched toward Dan Embassy located adjacent neighborhood Abu Roumanieh I sensed trouble protests would become I watched Syria position parties signs months spent morning transcribing interviews party members Needing break I cided Syrian colleague Kinda Kanbar newly opened Abu Romanieh branch Kentucky Fried Chicken Syria first Western restaurant As I tucked three piece chicken combo I noticed swelling crowd through restaurant front windows When demonstrations first started formed security services patrolled streets traffic policemen directed across district oughfare Soon however waves protesters could controlled Kinda I rushed going The crowd angry unruly Uniformed Unlike Syr protests English language banners Febru usual spelling mistakes another indication protests geared interna tional consump planned advance curity agents gathered boule where perpendicular street three story villa housing Danish Swedish Chilean embas Realizing something afoot I Kinda ahead toward embassy apart fetch camera recorder Returning I American diplomats Saturday stroll being Charg affaires Steven Seshe highest ranking US diplomat Syria following parture Ambassador Margaret Scobey follow former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri sassination Seshe shook pointed behind where Deputy Syrian Prime Minister State Plan Commission chief Abduallah Dardari architects Sy cooperation European Union standing Dardari simply stared blank somewhat expression More anyone implications protests Syria heavily European supported reform programs As I rounded corner Abu Roumanieh Street pushing through security forces dressed green I began something sounded popcorn popping About yards street testers stoning Danish embassy I stopped tracks photo As I closer embassy calls Allahu Akbar God great punctuated sounds tering glass Around thousand protesters toward embassies packed football field Flags Hamas Hizbollah Islamic Jihad fluttered Banners matic slogans English We ready printed blood dotted crowd I surprised since Syrian banners usually horrible English spelling grammar mistakes What happened helped understand meant little about where coming behind The front church adjacent embassy complex signs forced entry A dozen Syrian between trying scale embassy church garden As crowd cheered climbers I began notice uniformed security agents assembled front church smoking cigarettes Not single officer lifted finger rioters looked nervous A number protesters already climbed apartment block balconies across embassy perfect pitcher mound barrage still under A banner reading It FREEDOM But incitement draped terrace railing Where stones anyone guess their brown earthen color indicated surrounding which completely paved covered asphalt One climbers Syrian early black shortly cropped beard finally terrace embassy complex second floor Swedish mission He diately began tugging Seal Denmark colorful Security forces spent their smoking cigarettes protesters stoned burned embassy complex metal plate under flagpole floor above Breaking loose lifted above slammed earth Momentarily silenced spectacle crowd roared approval chants Allhu Akbar God great echoed Unable reach Danish embassy third floor bearded hoisted green Islam which written allah allah muhammed rusul allah There God Allah Mohammed Prophet God Swedish bassy flagpole The crowd roared again Protesters excited might cause stone building While light brown northern European features would scream Dan friend I Scandinavian I ticed dirty These I sport short cropped beard which could taken Muslim piety Every Kinda called mobile phone I speak Arabic When English words slipped mouth number protesters looked Things turned Protesters began throwing office paraphernalia Danish embassy crowd Suddenly black smoke began billowing protesters first floor ablaze I immediately looked security forces gathered front church They still standing around still smoking cigarettes More flames embassy crowd erupted approval I tried toward Kinda front church beside services I spotted something square INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS resembling pizza sailing through looked might As I ducked object number protesters They package apart plastic raincoat company breast People tried apart found tough stepped ground The convincing In people seemed enjoying spectacle It through dense crowd simple murmured afwan sorry allowed Few least seemed second When little smile I started taking photos They I thought After about minutes struggling phone calls I finally reached Kinda front church What I asked Come Andrew mukhabarat controlling every thing familiar lently secular woman known curity police years I dared anyone crowd But Kinda could local reporter cameraman without trouble Kinda began people questions I started taking photos Inti Ajnabiya Are foreigner group protesters asked Kinda Her physical features Syrian including glowing olive brown brown curly match Kinda jeans jacket hardly crowd Western style clothing Why asking foreign I thought Ana Arabiya I Arab Kinda replied In Syria speak means I first Arab Syrian Muslim They glanced looked before starting seemed rehearsed tirade America behind cartoon group named Mohammed We express anger He looked sheepishly I snapped photo But Denmark Europe The European Union helps Syrian reform What think Kinda The government policy Mohammed The people defend prophet express their anger Pretty I thought interesting Mohammed making distinction between state religion In acting publicly behalf religious senti ments could gotten thrown In could gotten killed disappeared state bombarded Syrian Hama response terrorist waged against state Muslim Brotherhood Moving stopped three other middle including wearing green Islamic headband brought street Down Ba Party exclaime Kinda raised eyebrows Here Assad family Ba Party I heard shout before public They nervous their photos When Kinda asked their names continued shouting Down Ba Party Islamic protesters openly calling destruction Ba Party I thought Pondering deeper I heard interrupted trucks turned Danish Embassy In addition Danish slogans protesters directed their domestic targets shouting Down Ba Party They rolled through crowd lazily tually coasted No firemen sight Pro testers trucks observation decks spectacle A station wagon arrived known protocol direct traffic President Bashar Assad Syrian capital It siren heartedly The crowd quickly parted broke The trucks moved their hoses shooting water flames Street gutters flowed water small streams Everyone remained stood calmly watched firemen their As walked protest friend Kinda businessman named Tarek He smiling joking several black leather jackets expensive polished shoes After minuets Kinda I already realized Tarek talking intelligence ficers Men around black radios AJT Fire trucks without firemen scene observation platforms barking orders All wooden batons So think Tarek asked I think quite I People security services doing Yep Tarek exclaimed People under pressure We Hariri problem government raised petrol prices percent They regime letting pressure Tarek moved turning valve Islamic revivalism international pressure On surface Syria seems secular society Minor rights religious ethnic guaranteed state which dominated Alawites offshoot Shia Islam which Assad family hails The Ba Party secular Arab party The other political aligned Ba National Progressive Front secular Over years increased signs Islamic sentiment Syria appeared At first showed terms Islamic dress Then mosque attendance Islamic study centers In center trend female religious leader Mounira Kubasi organization Syrians Kubasiaat As walked demonstration toward Tarek office coffee pointed toward Musali prayer constructed beside cient domed shrine houses notable donated build Islamic school The school razed remains I built Tarek I pious Mus Kinda But surface Tarek looked wealthy westernized Syrian educated United States which happened I shoes stepped inside Tarek through carpeted shrine opened showed sarcophagus By building I around permits Tarek After words prayer sheikh I returned front recov shoes locker Tarek remained joined later office For secular state arrested people praying INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS public 1980s current tolerance religious trend raised eyebrows What could pushing gious state dominated Alawites openly accept Sunni Islamic movements The short answer external sures complex internal tensions create Syrians I interviewed months standards living eroding In terms chasing power Gross Domestic Product GDP capita declining years Syria ranking Egypt Jordan Middle East The reasons behind slide pretty clear general invest largely extremely corrupt legal latory environment creating enough Exacer bating trend political tensions bubbled 1980s Syria endured birthrates world That massive demographic hitting Syrian market force At secular state ruling Ba Party continue socialism economic ideal The public sector ability create enough absorb labor market entrants rapidly declining resulting decreasing production Public salaries lower those private sector Pure simple state running population complacent Enter external pressures Since US invasion Iraq relations between Syria United States rapidly deteriorated Because Washington claims Syrian support Iraqi insurgency radical Palestinian groups based Damascus US sanctions Syria considerably tightened Thus those sanctions effective interrupting international involvement boosting Syrian production state lifeblood While US continues about spreading mocracy Middle East something Syrians necessarily oppose bloody television images US forces waging insurgents Iraq turned Syrian popular opinion against United States democracy agenda After majority Iraqi surgents Sunni Muslims minority Iraq majority Syria Over Syria rapid withdrawal Lebanon following assassination Rafik Hariri subsequent investigation death state under tremendous international pressure Trade formal informal between Syria Lebanon drastically interrupted impacting livelihood unknown number Syrians Lebanese As investigation Hariri death focused attention Damascus Syrian regime hunkered preparing siege including possible UN tions It trying reform economy reducing state subsidies So instead sharing wealth generated record revenues state increased salaries percent January short percent increases respectively Gasoline subsidies recent slashed which caused percent increase prices Inflation currently running estimated percent Syrians feeling economic pinch external pressure The Specter Islamic threat At Syrians cartoons prophet Western diplomats Damascus asking everyone sight question What strength political Islam Syria Their reason asking apparent Policymakers Washington Paris wondering pressures rently orchestrating Syria hands litical Islam which support Islamic terrorist groups highly suspected sectarian politi chaos nearby Iraq Answers question Everyone notes creased Islamic sentiments But unclear trend entered political sphere Religious banned Law which makes bership Muslim Brotherhood punishable death Gauging Brotherhood strength difficult The organization leaders remain exile members Syria moved underground By large however Syrians including Sunni Muslims religious Brotherhood organization bloody history Syria One independent MP Mohammed Habbash Damascus Islamic Studies Center often speaks press behalf amorphous Islamic trend society among clergy members Just Syrians follow Habbash determine seems Habbash because tolerance other religions sects He speaks English offer journalists diplomats US ticians recently refused invitation Senator Hillary Clinton attend National Prayer Breakfast Washington kinder gentler Islamic politics regime would promote West would So without tolerated political parties religious Syria observers forced study political events where religion politics their guesses Evidence armed Islamic groups Syria growing since April authorities foiled attack abandoned UN building Mezzeh district Damascus According January report Ibrahim Hamidi connected Damascus bureau chief Arab daily Al Hayat three AJT assailants Iraq fight US forces before Saddam Many observers including myself diplomats doubted authenticity attacks since while Washington making decision apply Syrian Accountability Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act SALSA which signed December month window implementation Then May authorities announced broken terrorist Damascus neigh borhood Daf Shawq As Syrian TV showed footage depot state announced larger organization Munazama Jund Sham wahda jihad The Soldiers Damascus Or ganization Unity Jihad Subsequent reports dicated group organized tributing propaganda throughout Syria According Hamidi analysis group pamphlets group seeks establish Islamic Emirate caliphate Syria Jordan Lebanon Iraq Early December security forces attacked takfiri group unilaterally declares other Muslims apostates Members groups known inflict their punishment among other things strap explosive belts walking western hotels region While attack Syr media Hamidi privately attack first instance authorities helicop against civilians Syria since state bombard Hama In subsequent article Hamidi cited informed sources forces surrounded hideout members fused prior government They accused security forces being infidels Playing West worst fears When Tarek office after prayer looked relaxed We glass talked business merry But We learned demonstrators moved Norwegian embassy burned since country papers reprinted Jyllands Posten cartoons A couple phone calls confirmed anticipated moving French Embassy The French newspaper France Soir carica tures It arrived Jisr Abyad Damascus neighborhood French Em bassy Security forces finally assembled themselves force Kinda continued shout sahafa journal approached uniformed security agents They through without batting When plain clothed security agents tried peated sahafa moved At French Embassy tension Police soldiers mixed freely before mission stone walls joking smoking cigarettes Two trucks front complete firemen uniform They adjusting water cannons firing trucks compressors Out front engines about yards street uniformed security agents donned looked green football grasped clear plexiglas shields I photos minutes before police Water cannon about seconds filling heavy When firemen turned cannon briefly I stream I behind braced myself another soaking It never however The called Muslims rampage without fight Kinda I walked street headed nearby Damascus Journalist Club oriental salads stiff drink But wheels inside already spinning Why would Syria security apparatus which civil rights activist journalist friend sends agents every protester human rights march stand little burning number Euro embassies The answer seemed simple Bush Administration Middle East democracy agenda unexpected problems Syrian regime knows The Muslim Brotherhood scored Egyptian elections probably would better without widespread government rigging Shiite parties dominated December elections Iraq Fatah routed Hamas January Palesti islative elections Hizbollah remains Lebanese government Direct regime involvement embassies incident INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS determine The state issue permit peaceful demonstration Ac cording student activists Islamic centers Damascus which owned state received instructions centers sheikhs organize protests against cartoons Denmark general January The protest conducted Short Message Service SMS known messaging United States In front Danish embassy protesters carried letter their which found their front doorsteps windshields The following Copy letter SMS friends about onstrations February Don Danish goods The following afternoon violent protests raged outside Denmark embassy Beirut Sy state agency released statement confirming armed Islamists killed security outside Damascus lasted minutes As nalists combed streets Syrian capital seeking evidence state involve riots authenticity shootout larger complex question remained Are West pressures Syria really weakening regime spurring country liberal democracy simply pushing Syrians growing Islamic sentiments toward Syrian state strengthening power Now words Islamist television producer Iraq waning Saddam Hussein jihad against US forces His uncle thousands members Muslim Brotherhood disappeared I Sunni While leader country might Alawite Muslim I anyone suitable president Bashar Assad Insti Fellows chosen basis character previous experience promise They young professionals funded spend minimum years carrying designed programs study writing outside United States The Fellows required report their findings experiences field month They write subject formally informally The result unique reporting analysis periodic assessment interna tional events issues Author Tabler Andrew J Title ICWA Letters Middle East North Africa ISSN Imprint Institute Current World Affairs Hanover NH Material Type Serial Language English Frequency Monthly Other Regions East Asia South Asia The Americas Europe Russia Sub Saharan Africa ICWA Letters ISSN published Institute Current World Affairs Inc exempt operating foundation incorporated New York State offices located West Wheelock Street Hano NH 03755 The letters provided charge members ICWA available libraries professional researchers subscription Phone Fax E Mail valley Web address Executive Director Peter Bird Martin Program Administrator Brent Jacobson Administrative Publications Manager Ellen Kozak Institute Current World Af fairs The Crane Rogers Foundation The Information contained lication reprinted repub lished without express written consent Institute Current Comments questions about story World Affairs should andrewjtabler yahoo