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9/5/1967 - The Hong Kong Situation I: Impasse by Anthony R. Dicks

INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS ARD B Chatham Road The Hong Kong Situation I Kowloon Impasse Hong Kong September M Richard H Nolte Institute Current World Affairs Madison Avenue New York N Y i0017 Dear Mr Nolte The disturbances Hong Kong begin suddenness winter riots Macao indications trouble lacking Probably majority Chinese residents Colony expected Cultural Revolution China successful seizure power Macao would repercussions Westerners There evidence months beforehand something noisy strikes finally erupted violence probably drilled police force deployed against rioters world None theless writing careful observers covered graphs marking course China foreign trade confidence balance advantage Colony continued existence prosperity China favour realization activists among local quite prepared jeopardize status considerable shock whole population Four months after first violence broke shock largely absorbed community reacted resilience surprising observers within outside Yet disturbances sight despite present instability nothing damage interests parties concerned Rather passes situation becomes complex possible initiatives breaking deadlock harder harder grasp In Newsletter I shall brief outline course disturbances introducing important factors which control future developments In further Newsletters I shall examine these factors greater detail As Macao appears campaign Hong Kong planned without consent approval alone active participation those authorities China whose business normal cumstances manage relations Hong Kong Ministry Foreign Affairs Commission Hong Kong Macao Affairs which believed exist within beside Peking Provincial Government Canton However seems these bodies known plans political situation China simply precluded their taking preventive action indeed likely extreme party Cultural Revolution least moral support Hong Kong disturbances Certainly early stage development Cultural Revolution divisions themselves ranks Hong Kong veiled though these outside world It question whether influence movement China spread through individual Hong Kong leaders close connexions mainland whether mainland press other Communist Party media enough which blowing At local leftists began present increasingly Maoist facade community behind which pressures individuals ranks revolutionary rebels As Macao there seems natural enough division along lines economic interest function between supporters opponents Cultural Revolution Hong Kong though numerical strength organiza tional complexity makes difficult generalize certainy More personal allegiances played party particularly leftist alignments Broadly speaking revolution there ranged trades unions significant first overt moves teachers their students majority journalsts including staffs local newspapers Hong Kon representatives Hsinhua New China Press Agency On other unexpectedly commercial bankers possibly workers members unionS connected leftist commerelal enterprises The merchants there consider number great small represent interest epitomised Mr Ho Yin Macao though there leftist business Hong Kong acquired dominating position The bankers other means entrepreneurs being salaried officials Either recruited locally often represent Chinese civil service managing vital sector China interests Colony first sector suffer effects Cultural Revolution remittances Hong Kong Overseas Chinese began about ARD Their reluctance support extension Cultural Revolution Hong Kong attributed professional personal considerations Before Mr T Chu first major breach solidity Party establishment Kwangtung Province conservative elements Hong Kong Thus according Mr Lau Yuet former chief reporter leftist en_ei Lp Taiwan November plans implementation Cultural Revolution Hong Kong discussed journalists China National Day celebrations October later decided Chinese Party authorities plans should postponed However Mr T principal connexions Canton conservative leftists without leader their particularly after spectacular leftist success Macao In Kwangtung bureaucracy itself Seems resisted Maoists fairly successfully until summer present strife Canton elsewhere province suggests Maoists still uphill struggle against provincial Party government officials perhaps against weight easily aroused local separatism The decision ahead revolutionary plans Hong Kong probably taken about Christmas It almost certainly local doubtless successes Macao For reasons discussed Newsletter leftist action Macao supported Macao Hong Kong leftist Portuguese public opinion which inflated leftists estimates their popularity The opening phases campaign against British authority largely exploratory The first oblique strike called Hong Kong Seamen Union against Netherlands shipping company which headquarters largely employs local crews Royal Interocean Lines The union number demands respect incident which occurred board SoS Straat Malakka Brisbane December mastewa opened revolver during dispute The company reluctance union demands characterized imperialist February oppression committee formed which organized successful boycott The Chinese Seamen Union cabled support mainland Eventually company union terms which included apology which managing director members C union subsequently published several consecutive English Chinese newspapers There other disturbances ships crewed Hong Kong during April Meanwhile dispute develop among employees Hong Kong Island companies owned family named Wu reinstate dismissed employee belonged union A strike later extended different pretext Wus Kowloon company while joined drivers nonetheless effective enough force owners The Wus closed their Hong Kong business altogether selling terms drivers willing union demands respect Kowloon Similar tactics employed managements number other strikes which place April early May Plants factories closed workers dismissed iable being employed after wards policy which appears tacit approval Hong Kong Government though carries menace unemployment problem serious because leftists would affected The political character these labour disputes apparent beginning It notable several casus allegation personal violence offered Chinese workers European supervisors several cases these allegations apparently uncontroverted companies concerned At meetings works Chairman Mao written banners placards readings together shouting slogans characterized interviews between strikers their employers A further common factor disputes refusal unions accept offices Labour Department media arbitration labour disputes entirely voluntary basis Hong Kong which accordance their earlier practice It noticeable strikers force police agitation began focus directly political issue police actions these labour disputes became little interest leftists settled It seems object these strikes probe various reactions Hong Kong Govern employers right unions labour unrest pronounced political flavour prove power leftist unions Some uncertainty likely reactions British authorities understandable confronted trouble scale eleven years British policy indulgent towards leftist political organization recent years there attempt check spread Communist teachings beliefs The exact nature British response serious challenge would assess accurately particularly people informed Hong Kong leftists about nature processes Colonial Government A further factor which taken account likely loyalty police widely believed before these disturbances include their ranks large proportion leftists Once affair elevated political plane whole became involved struggle Events moved fairly showed considerable degree preparation The Hong Kong Kowloon All Circles Anti Persecution Struggle Committee formed include about leading leftists merchants whose trade China depends redness their public images As Macao demands forward May though rather extravagant Portuguese The Hong Kong Federation Trade Unions demanded Government should I Stop bloody suppression workers Hong Kong Artificial Flower Works where first violent clashes place Release people arrested police during disturbances Punish those respon sible making arrests Make apology confession errors On May Chinese Government presented demands British Government formally espousing cause local leftists These demands Hong Kong authorities should Accept demands forward Chinese workers residents Colony Immediately fascist measures Immediately release arrested persons including workers journalists photographers Punish those responsible bloody atrocities apologize victims compensation losses Guarantee further incidents would occur Various explanations Chinese Government intervention suggested themselves including number unrelated minor sources friction between British Chinese interests continued presence U S warships troops recreational visits Vietnam tightening system comprehensive certifi cates origin other restrictions export Chinese goods unsuccessful lawsuit Chinese mainland against largely British owned company which merits seemed largely Chinese Even without these irritants though seems assume China would bound cause local leftists reasons I suggested prompted leftist action Macao Confident support People Republic exact terms support never clear local leftists seems believed military intervention excluded campaign ahead Demons trations usually accompanied violence against police place various parts Colony culminating widely publicized rallies outside Government House where posters plastered exterior front gates lodges As Hong Kong leftists realise reported authorities China virtually unchecked demonstra tions outside Government House impressive achievement struggle It thing paste posters office quite another cover British authority while military sentries policemen looked mattered little participants whether passive attitude latter prompted indulgence caution violence would wished strength masses armed thought Chairman Mao However Struggle Committee failed advantage potential psychological victory perhaps because planning perhaps because really grasp likely effect British their attack perhaps because misled about nature China support their cause which stage fairly spectacular involving attack British diplomatic office Shanghai Instead mistaking 90rbearance local authorities weakness mounted further increasingly violent demonstrations centre section Hong Kong Island Somewhat clumsy inept attempts Chinese police being subjected severe strains their patience Eventually these demonstrations massive fairly brutal police repression though people killed streets Both solidarity police wholly unprecedented adverse public reactions rioters violent tactics taken leftists surprise their campaign changed emphasis Measures taken object disrupting British administration whole Colony little being convenience otherwise public While leftist statements propaganda continued regard conflict between British imperialists their running patriotic masses other leftist tactics clearly abandoned winning support trying maintain popularity Thus transport strikes June July based partly payment handsome strike often considerably ordinary monthly drivers partly intimidation candidly directed against community rather against commercial interests employers The strike seamen stevedores which intended disrupt workin whole little success though inconvenience caused ships crewing difficulties Besides causing inconvenience expense working public forced crowd private taxis great profit strikes gradual increase violence terrorism directed first strike breakers vehicles continued Bombs began thrown frequently first being little fireworks There never evidence China By middle August quite powerful bombs being gelignite stolen construction sites danger which Government piece unusually crass incompetence overlooked Together large number suspicious looking objects designed police these powerful bombs various places usually public buildingspresumably object causing inconvenience rather At times during August police military explosives experts called fifty times After police first determined action against rioters Government perhaps agreeably surprised public reactions began pursue firmer The Governor confident enough situation leave eight weeks ostensibly because previous leave curtailed A number emergency powers conferred police courts enable effectively disturbances Riots demonstrations confronted suppressed whatever force seemed necessary wherever place large numbers people arrested Many rioters severely beaten after arrest ourage autres caused great bitterness among ftiss which sudden retirement health grounds Commis sioner Police The police started premises organizations schools shops cinemas order prevent these being sanctuaries arsenals weapons sharpened files lengths steel piping order round large numbers leftists questioning detainees received better treatment where police entry resisted cases there considerable sieges Although after consideration statement effect Government policy tried careful distinction between regarded permissible impermissible leftists Thus placed dissemination works Chairman Mao while police posters which carried inflammatory statements those which simply quoted Chairman sayings which carried merely patriotic message intact There orders violate pictures busts Chairman Mao though doubtless always obeyed The Government immunity leftist newspapers three principal still operation their premises never having searched though notice possible action served authorities closed three minor papers after series proceedings against papers their editors sedition other offences suspended months The carefully respected immunity given banks however which course Hsinhua Press Agency offices premises Hong Kong Chinese Government institutions These limitations sphere Government action imposed primarily object impinging least possible extent direct interests Chinese Government while making clear actions local activists would tolerated Although there senior officials opposed Government would averse tiations Chinese representatives local leftists seemed possibility existed negotiations could prove fruitful At events clear authorities tried leave lines approach tried avoid creating situation which negotia impossible How successful policy another matter Throughout first months disturbances moreover Government continued address requests Chinese authorities additional water Colony which suffering effects season The fixed annual amount supplied under standing agreement already further supplies until October The Chinese authorities requests stringent water rationing imposed supply every fourth As success disruptin order social economic Colony eluded leftists sheer expense their operations began seems decision taken probably China shift focus attention Hong Kong internal affairs border between Colony China The first serious incident place there July Three Chinese constables Hong Kong police killed light machine hinese after surrounded without firearms border police small township Shataukok where frontier middle street After British units moved positions along border their first involvement situation called earlier rioting situation quietened while there other border incidents nothing serious place there until Y August Subsequent border incidents included bizarre occasions British soldiers policemen disarmed crowds under instructions greatest restraint agreements signed first following reasonably amicable parley between British Chinese officers circumstances which never quite clear The second agreement result rather uglier situation which several British officials police officers civilian District Officer under threat physical violence throughout whole night The District Officer finally wrote signed letter apology commander detachment signed receipt after return weapons seized The apology repudiated Hong Kong Govern having signed under duress The object these exercises humiliation probably score moral victory would divert attention discomfiture leftists Colony there seemed while grounds thinking border incidents formed which would withdrawal leftists after further spectacular victories British perhaps miniature version invasion India prevented great forhose armed themselves thought Chairman Mao There certainly indieations something planned though seems plans subsequently abandoned least storage They would offered parties leftist advantages For Chinese authorities there advantage being control course events rather closely possible Hong Kong itself place redit final victory mother country For pacific wings there advantages former supportive action would taken latter action would taken which would responsibility offering possibility whole affair The British authorities dealt events border extreme caution while maintaining altogether realistically entirely civilian troublemakers Red Guards soldiers People Liberation Army trying restrain crossing rontiero Had really incidents would about certainly local peasants border Chinese authorities could certainly prevented others reaching chosen nonetheless there probably disagreements between commanders broad masses about nature extent various actions times seems soldiers actually performed which Hong Kong Government spokes Whether Brit caution border impossible unwise implementation which I referred increasingly apparent confusion Canton August unfathomable manoeuvres authorities Peking there variable factors assessment possible Chinese foreign policy permit confident analysis The August important develop ments situation First Severe Tropical Storm Kat____e brought Colony inches augmented later further inches easing threatened critical water shortage For immediate future Chinese authorities deprived considerable bargaining point possible discharge their contract obligations respect water October without appearing local leftists Second appeared somewhat futile campaign terror bombs assumed tragic aspect small children blown pieces package which picked politically insignificant street Such public revulsion anger editor leftist Ta Kung Pa unprecedented calling press conference apparent intention denying responsibility outrages His efforts might spared The planned exceptionally brutal murder popular radio figure Lam Bun satirizing leftists daily programme probably leftist cause other There disowning either T Kung Pa_o rivals which given little space press conference announced attack Lain cousin justified punishment enemy people It against background Hong Kong attack British Office Peking place extent which attack related careful appreciation Hong Kong events doubtful The ultimatum Chinese Foreign Ministry expiry which assault began related closure three minor leftist newspapers which I referred besides demanding lifted called release various journalists arrested connexion In released before ultimatum impressions outrages Peking communication possible miscalculation indeed whole episode easily explicable terms Chinese internal politics Since Mr George Brown letter Peking suggesting found improving relations between China Britain there spectacular developments Hong Kong It fairly widely assumed present assumption could change leftists various factions authorities community settlement difference between London Peking understanding inevitably precede local peacemaking At present little being either Colony explore lowering tension The Government reason GII police pressure leftists raids leftist premises occur proportion incidents caused attributed leftists prosecutions going ahead solemnity The lefists maintained continuing trickle incidents enough public demonstrations instant disperse within minutes usually before police scene maintain semblance struggle Sometimes there almost complete quiet several these reflect furious altercations known divid leftists There indications comrades already being criticized instance authorities mainland group inspectors Hong Kong provide accurate assessment situation reports rival local factions Some leftists believe criticisms prelude public criticism leftists Hong Kong whole possibly editorial Peking P eople their failure study learn thought Chairman Mao before launching their British struggle Such criticism would effect being actual struggle tactics though continuing vendetta campaign against Hong Kong police cannot ruled It certain Chinese authorities their represent atives Hong Kong would control activities supporters British struggle Many people Chinese authorities would resolve present problem Hong Kong before October optimists still doing However little Peking seemed economic matters during Cultural Revolution there indications considerable effort being usual Autumn Trade Fair Canton normal The Fair times great importance China economy prestige developing country deeper implications cancellation postponement would tantamount admission Cultural Revolution hindered rather helped national growth While reports Canton Premier Chou En ordered Fair costs price restoring order Canton there reports invitations being issued Hong Kong troubles closely bound probl Canton Fair Quite apart create climate confidence important local buyers Chinese produce great majority foreign business coming Fair through Hong Kong tombs hotel lobbies could deterrent buyers Moreover question whether water turned season supply becomes Ist October interest everyone makes contracts Chinese repudiation importance weeks before beginning Fair would little create right confidence In terms Hong Kong internal politics there reasons resolving whole problem before October On National Day China traditionally appears benevolent point population policy surely demand tradition maintained There already speculation posters decorations appear event people wondering whether various leftist organizations restaurateurs willing provide accomodation National Day dinners Meanwhile Canton where Hong Kong leftists subject amount criticism weeks there posters attacking their plans expend valuable resources feasting during current imperialist struggle Beyond these immediate considerations Trade Fair great importance Colony structure volume China foreign trade factors perhaps principal factor which determine Hong Kong future The Colony provided market China exports consequently source foreign exchange Economic disruption inside China besides weakening foreign exchange earning capacity likely increase oreign exchange requirements Government increase grain purchases abroad parts country Yet longer present situation continues Hong Kong Colony likely satisfy these require ments Beneath surface appears relatively static impasse there several dynamic factors situation Apart movements China foreign trade trade Hong Kong Hong Kong trade outside world considered together fluctuating supply which already serious price rises serious problem unemployment those workers discharged after striking employed acquire genuine economic social basis their political discontent These factors together erosion Colony commercial confidence shaken might expected first dramatic disturbances point possibility gradua deterioration situation which unchecked could serious threat Colony economic viability future In respect these problems Hong Kong authorities something though None wholly solved though until outcome Cultural Revolution terms economy foreign trade least discerned clearly The Autumn Trade Fair should Yours sincerely Received New York October 1967o