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10/1/1997 - Projections from the Heartland by Adam Smith Albion

Projectionsfrom Heartland TASHKENT Uzbekistan October ByAdamSmithAlbion TAMERLANEVS VASCODAGAMA At century authoritative diametricallyopposedtheo rieswereproposed relatinggeography power More specifically compare relative advantages seapower landpower U S Admiral AlfredThayerMahanwastheeloquent apostleofthe former Withhiseye firmly ontheEmpire buildingroleoftheBritishRoyalNavy hepropoundedin1900his thesis thatwhoever controlled lanes couldcommandthe world Navies moved swiftly armies could project theirpower farther They coulddominatecommercialshippingandstrangleacountry strade atwill These obvious conclusions drawat timewhenmapsshowed three quarters oftheglobeunderBritannia ssway Tobesure Mahanpointedoutthatseapower wasmeaninglessunlesscomplementedbystrategicbasesonland butlandpower wasonlyameans navalsupremacywasthe Mahan sideaswerenotloston FirstSeaLordsJohnArbuthnotFisher andWinstonChurchill Admiral Alfred Tirpitz whose competition build Dreadnoughtsuper battleshipshelped precipitate FirstWorldWar Astrikingcounter argumenttoMahan scameoutofOxfordfouryears later whenthe geographer Sir Halford MacKinder forth concept global pivotal Thiswaslaterknownas theory ofthe heartland whichhe situated Eurasian steppes modern Central Asia Here tended ofworldpowerwastobe soughtandfound Withnoma jornavigable riversandnooutlets tothe oceans theheartlandwasimpenetrable toseapower Moreover itsextremeisolationrendereditattack proofbyland It impregnable fortress Air bombing balloons seema feasiblepropositionin Richinresources freetodevelopits strength intotal security theheartlandwastheworld greatestgeostrategic prize vulnerable spotkomwhich dominate Eurasianlandmass conse quently theworld The World Island called Thus starkly contrasting theories cases seapower versus landpower Itmustbeadmitted MacKinder sheartlandtheorysoundsrather extravagant today His identification ofpoor neglected CentralAsia planetmaywarm hearts specialists enthusiasts myself butisnolongertakenvery seriouslybystudents ofgeostrategy Incontrast Mahan snotions stillenjoywidecurrencyamongmilitary security AsResearchAssociate inSecurityatthe InstituteofEastWestStudiesinPrague attended conferences where Mahan concepts frequently invoked whether discussdeploymentoftheUSSixth Fleet modernizationoftheRoyalNavy oreventhe touchy subject possible missions Japanese Incidentally original popularizationofMahan sideasoweda lottothevocaladvocacyofacertainProfessor Robert Albion dayawell known naval historian atHarvard relative experts ofthe starting points thinking about navalpowerinthemo dernage SirHalford sinsightsneednotbedismissedwhollyout ofhand however Theword heartland haspassedinto commonusagebecauseofhim Heprovidesaconceptual analyzing strengths Mongol Timuridempires theirrealmswereheartlandpowers parexcellence althoughthetheoryislessusefulwhen weseekthe reasons their declineandfragmentation Ifweturn contemporary history Soviet Union defensivedepth certainlydidplayanimportantrole itsvictoryinWorldWarII Becauseofitsisolationfrom front CentralAsianfactoriescouldcontinuetochurn armaments supplies after German armies decimated USSR industrialbase Hundreds ofthousands Russians Byelorussians Ukrainianswereevacuatedtoanunvanquishable Soviet heartland fromwhichtocarryonthewareffort Many ofthemandtheirdescendentsliveinCentralAsia still Andin sense MacKinder thesis thatworldpower wouldbetheprerogativeofa richlandmasssecurefrom attackandplunderhasbeenborne Althoughno ritorycanbe consideredimpregnablein ofrock NorthAmericais relativelyinvulnerable Certainlyit conformsmorecloselytoMacKinder description unstormable fortressthandoesCentralAsia The preceding paragraphs introduced preludetodiscussingthegeopolitics seebelow ofCen tralAsia snewlyindependent states Theglorydaysof SilkRoute whenEurasia smajortraderoutespassed throughtheirterritories arelonggone IfTamerlane theherowhomadeCentralAsia temporarily thecyno sureoftheworld hiscontemporaryVascodaGamaisthe villain responsible decline By circumnavigating Africa thePortugeuseseamandemonstratedthe feasibil ityoftradingwithIndia byextension China byship thelong cumbersomelandroutesbecameobso Fromthe sixteenthcenturyon CentralAsiabecame heartland backwater MacKinder CentralAsiawillremainabackwaterifit failsto finesse geographical disadvantages Ironically MacKinder throwsthemintosharp relief althoughhisin tentionwas totouttheregion sstrongpoints especiallyfromadefen perspective distance other centers industrialpower itsdearthofnavigablerivers lackofaccesstothe ocean Wemayaddto thiscatalogue ofwoes vertiginousmountainstothe eastandsouth Tien Shan Pamir ranges deserts empty steppes north northwest andtwo theCaspianandtheAral whichmustbeeither crossedorcircumvented Whilethese facts ofgeography maybe desirable areaswhere inhabitants ditionally committed avoiding contact sideworld Tibet orBhutancometo terrific isolation particularly splendid thenew sover ASA countries Central Asiawith ambitions opposite SirHalforddidconsidertheseproblems albeitbypor ingovermapsinhisOxfordstudyratherthansurveying terrain first He recognized heartland wouldwieldnopowerif itweremerely asuperb defen citadel It would require project itself outward inwaysthat could counterbalance mobility andlong distance strikingpowerof ships Hefoundhis answer railroads These maintained would shift thebalanceofpowerbacktoland Thespeedand ciencyoftrainswouldmorethancompensate forthe toricaladvantages ofsea borne forces Power asthewordhasbeenemployedso hasim plicitlyreferredto militarypower buttheargumentwill serve ifwethink terms projecting troops commodities across large distances Central Asia sbiggestheadachetodayisnothowtoconquerthe world buthowto launch goods theworldmar The region landlocked Uzbekistan onlycountryonearthbothlandlockedandsharingallits borders landlocked neighbors Howto overcome suchunfortunategeography Howtoredressthebalance against economic competitorswhoenjoy access These areproblems ofthe greatest strategicim Central Asia Can region based sourcesbemobilizedefficientlyen oughtoposea serious challenge those conveyedby Cast economic terms question closely allied equations powerthatMahanandMacKindersetout solve MacKinderbelieved landpowerwouldcome havetheupperhandinEurasiabecauseofthe expansion ofthe railwaynetwork Althoughhewasmakinga mative statement about superior potential roads military logistical point recast prediction about infrastructure develop As I proposed above imagine MacKinder talking about moving ofbulky goods Central Asia instead soldiers equip Howdo economics transport across Eurasiacomparewiththejourneybysea Aircargo omitted discussion grounds counts forarelativelysmallportionofCentralAsia ports andisimpracticalfortransportinginconveniently bulky cargoes cotton orpetroleum The recent connection ofthe Lanzou Urumqi railway totheTurkestan Siberianl inehasmadeitpossibletocon veyfreightalongthewholelengthofthe WorldIsland bytrain tenthousandkilometersfromLianyunganon Yellow Sea Rotterdam Transit takes through China alone changeofbogies wheel attheUSSR sborders since Sovietgaugesareincompatiblewith allothercountries gauges except Finland Meanwhile average shipping Lianyungan Rotterdam ports termini Thus ships longer InstituteofCurrentWorld Affairs BUTthe ofcargoworks outmuchcheaperperkilo Asaresult itmakeseconomicsensetomove value commodities requiring speedby Trains fasterBUTmoreexpensive Theyarebest suited carrying decomposable products value sender needs deliver promptlybecausealargesumofmoney istiedupin Mycomparisonoflandversus searoutesisadmittedly unnuanced butithelpsbringCentralAsia sfundamen taltransportproblemsinto focus Theregionexportslow value replaceable commodities primarily cotton should economically perfectworldbut areforcedbygeographytogomoreexpensivelybytrain As result profitsmustbe sacrificed tomakeprices tractivetoconsumers Atthesametime theregionfaces competitorswithnosuchdifficulties itwillberecalled thattheMississippiriver afittingsymbolfortheregion cotton rival debouches directly Gulf Mexico LaborcostsinCentralAsiaarelow istrue lower Southeast Asia which clothesandmachine partsmore cheaply andwhich enjoystheadvantageofproximitytotheocean Once again Central Asia value goods expensively order compete world markets Onesolutionwouldbe cutthe costs ofthe railways themselves RailroadsinCentralAsiaarenationalized course poorlymaintainedbyallaccounts andwithhigh overheads precisely fixed terminal costs transport economist would All tates barring tomTajikistan talking about converting those sectionsofthenetworkundertheircontrolfromdieselto electrified Althoughtheswitchwouldsavemoneyin thelongrun theinitialinvestmentsaretoosteep fortheir strappedgovernmentstoaffordwithouthelp Ac cordingly EuropeanBank Reconstruction Developmentisconsideringimplementinga 150million loantoTurkmenistan UzbekistanandKazakhstaninor helpimprove lines repair rolling stock dally cargo cotton andupgrade passenger This however yetbeen approved although attime ofwriting thebanklooks ahead least initial tranches million CentralAsia sremotenessfrom alsomaking itdifficulttocapitalizeonitsmostlucrativeexport Most pipelines presently carryingKazakh crude West transit Russia route course subject tariffs mentionan undesirable measure politi controlby Russia Some transportedby across Caspian Aktau Baku Azerbaijan fromwhere itmayhavetocross dependingonroutes newpipelineshavetobebuilt theterritoriesoftwomore countries before reaching Mediterranean through Turkey Howcomplicatedand expensive Compare circumstances inwhich Gulf States selves Kuwait Saudi Arabia situated theyloadtheir directlyontotankerswithaneasethat makestheKazakhsgreenwithenvy TheUzbeksareinan evenworsefix planstoshunttheir reservesaremod comparedto Kazakhstan through pipeline TurkmenistantoPakistanareonholdaslongastheroute isblockedbyconflictinAfghanistan Turkmenhydrocar resources similarly blocked south Turmenistan though isscheduledtobeginflowing thisyearwestwardsthroughIran andits oilmayfollow seebelow CentralAsiais really singularly fated In additiontothegeographicalobstacleswithwhichitmust contend Providencehaschosentoendowitwithcotton andoil Fortune sgifttoth eregion snewnationsisprov amixedblessing While better nothing these happen commodities competitors pickor pumpalmost cheaply transportmoreeffectivelyand sellmoreprofitably DEEPFORCES VS THEVIEWFROMTHE SURFACE Nowadaysweregardgeographicalknowledgeasanessen tialpartofknowledge ingeneral Bytheaidofgeography andinnoothm doweunderstand theaction ofgreat naturalforces distribution ofpopulation thegrowth ofcommerce theexpansion ontiers thedevelopment ofStates thesplendidachievementsofhumanenergyin various manifestations We recognize geography handmaid history Geography sister science economics politics ThusLordCurzon addressingtheGeographicalSoci etyinLondoninhiscapacityasthe society spresident If claimshemakesforthe utility ofgeographicknowl little sweeping wholly truthful therereallynootherwayofappreciatinghumanachieve ments savethroughgeography shouldremember preaching converted Yet onoto something The concept casting around scribein1912hasbeenformalizedtodayintothe disci pline boldervoicesthanminewouldsaythescience ofgeopolitics Adefinitionofgeopolitics istheinfluence ofgeographyonthepoliticalcharacterofstates theirhis institutions especially relations other states Although Lord Curzon would recog The Uzbeks start The Cabinet Ministers adopted series resolutions On General Program Electrifyingthe CentralAsian Railroad calling conversion kilometers oftrack 540kmhavebeen electrified Pravda vostoka September GeorgeNathanialCurzon SubjectsoftheDay Beinga SelectionofSpeechesandWritings London GeorgeAllen Unwin ASA nized himself doubtless crusty aristocrat wouldhavefoundmodernacademicjargon ghastly wasin factone ofCentralAsia original geopoliticians WriterssinceAristotleandStrabohav etriedtodemon strate differences between communities could accountedforbystudyingtheirgeography Since thisin sight starting point study geopolitics theydeservetobeclassed asthe firsttwogeopoliticians although their successors pounded naive geographical determinism Clearlyitis unjustifiabletobelievethatthedevelopment ofhumanpolitiesisconditionedexclusivelybytheirsur roundin Itisec ually futiletoinoretheroleplayedbsr geographical factors altogether forsometimestheir canbe significant indeed In exceptional circumstances asextreme climates necessity adapt environment canbecome paramount consideration witnesstheLappsortheKalaharibushmen Ifwewiden ourperspectivesfromthoseoftheanthropologisttothose ofthe geopolitician itbecomesapparentthatgeography severe limitations choices available wholecountries AcaseinpointisCentralAsia Ihavealreadysketched thegeographicaldifficultiesthereg ionmustovercometo reach outside world To surmount those obstacles single greatest challenge region faces Therefore Idonotbelieve Iamfallingintothedeterministtrap physical geography Central Asia premely important understanding future political economicandsocialdevelopment I should advise readerwhoaccepted tence truism couched ratherbroad terms itagain Iamexpressinganopinionaboutthefutureof region flies almost every study contemporary CentralAsia Ihave Otherwrit consistentlymakeprognosticationsusingaverydif ferentkindofreasoning ThescholarlyanalysesIhavein relyon tangible factors steppes tainsorthelackofrivers Rather theydisplayaprofound knowledgeofforces trends movementsandinfluencesop erantinCentralAsia Oncloserexaminationthese forces andtrendsoftenturnouttobenotfactsperse butsophis ticatedtheoreticalconstructsderivedfrom facts laborated atanimpressive levelofabstraction Theyare models applied delvebeneath surface events andelucidate theirrealimport I acknowledge thatmany analysts asking selves different questions I abstractforms ofreasoning toframetheiranswers Yet I wondernonethelesswhethermycolleagues arenot pernicious Intellectuals since Plato havebeenseducedtimeandtimeagainbytheconviction there simplymustbe underlying ideasand histori calforceswhosedirectiondeterminesthe fatesofhuman communities Ourthirst forworld historicalromance ordeeptheoriesaboutdeepcausesosocialchane howRichard Rorty The egregious centexampleofthis sortofthinkingisthe ClashofCivi lizations thesis gained large following since theendoftheColdWar Itidentifiesthreeblocsofcivili zations Christian MuslimandBuddhist thenewor ganizing principles global society likely comeintoconflictinthefuture Itsscopei saswideas isdeep itpositsamodelforinterpretingsocio culturo political forces acrossthewholeplanet The questions Central Asia scholars abouttheregionseemtometo fallunderthe world toricalromance heading Theyareshotthroughwiththe assumption developments meanings Herearesomeexamples Underwhatsphereofinfluence Central Asia predisposed Extrapolating thearea shistorwhatprinciplesofdevelopmentcanwe discernorpostulate Aretheideasandforces latentinthe region driving toward Turkey secular model Iran Islamic model Will ofbloodandlanguage drawits disparate peoples Turkic collective Orwill stirrings ethnic rivalries prove resistible What trajectories likely violent willthevarious countries traceundertheimpetusofna tionalism Is region destined towards democraticWest theMuslim East Islam orNation alism MarxorMuhammad asktwo recent thoritativebooksonCentralAs It notmyintention newsletterinto lemic Noneofthesequestionscanbe dealtwithinsum maryfashion I least allude reasons SeeRichardRorty TheIntellectualsattheEndofSocialism TheYaleReview Spring hopeamnotbeingtoouncharitableif notethatscholarshaveavestedinterestinDeepMeanings sinceonlytheyarefully qualifiedtoexplainthem Theresult isakindofepistemological circle bymonopolizingtheaccreditedknowledgerequiredto answertheirownquestions theyconfirm theirauthorityandrelevance SincetheBalkans disaster ethnicityhasbecomeafavoritelensforanalystssleuthingthecausesofconflictseverywherefrom EasternEuropetoEastAsia Butoneoftheclearestlessonstoemergefromthewarinex Yugoslavia isthatourcommentators harpingon oldethnicrivalries supposedlymakingconflictinevitable wasoffthemark Post mortemsofthewarbelatedly suggest other prosaic factors political ambition political miscalculation personal jealousies monstrousgreed played crucial roles precip itating inevitable See booklet wrote Woodrow Wilson Center The EconomicRootsofEthnicConflict WashingtonDC AhmedRashid TheResurgenceofCentralAsia IslamorNationalism ZedBooks London andDilipHiro BetweenMarx andMuhammad The ChangingFace ofCentralAsia HarperCollins London Institute CurrentWorld Affairs myfrustrationwiththem Atfirst whenIarrivedinCen tralAsiatwoyearsago Itriedtoorientmyselfbylook issues emphasized books articlespurportingtodescribewhat Iwould My agenda reflected preoccupations specialists But where evidence Turkish influence vauntedroleasbigbrothertothe fledglingTurkic states Barely discernible Wherewas feverish explosion strong Islamic identification I cently advisedan Istanbul basedjournalist eager portonresurgentfundamentalisminCentralAsia notto bother coming Wherewas movement united Turkestan Adampsquib tneverhadahopeofignit ingamong disparate peoples region Where ethnic hatreds andjealousies roiling through Central Asia Yes exist But considerably lessvirulentthaninFrance CanadaorRwanda theyare almostalwaysasecondaryortertiaryphenomenonhing ingon something regularly projected byWesternobserverswhoare lookingforethnictensions butareusually lookingatsomethingelse AroundOshintheFerghanavalle3 forexample posedly ahotbed offundamentalism nationalism people minds ethnic tensions butproblems ofland distribution DoworksonCentral Asia mention The biggestbone contention tweenUzbekistanandKyrgyzstan isNOTtherightsof ethnicUzbeks across theborder subject invariably discussedintheliterature buttheamountofwaterthe Kyrgyz releasing ToktoguldamforUzbek irrigation purposes It conceivable casus belli Does anyone mention While analysts fixated Russia inCentralAsi thedragonis stirringonits eastern borders The markets Osh Almaty awashinChinese goods andKazakhstanis doingpipe dealswithBeijing Chinais settobemoreimportant totheregionthanEuropeortheUnitedStates Doesany onementionthis Andthelistgoeson Thetownhallsin Samarkand Bukhara worried about Tajik revanchistclaimsontheir citiesthanthelackoftextbooks fortheir schools ThelocalethnicTajikpopulations mydealingswiththem struckmeas largely indif ferenttoresoundingnationalistappeals theirdailylives filledwithmorebanalconcerns Nevertheless oneof Central Asia astutest observers claims otherwise reawakeningofTajiknationalandculturalconsciousness couldhaveposed athreat toUzbekistan sterritorialin tegrityandregionalambitions thisdevelopmentwould frustrated Uzbekistan project recreating Turkistan CommentatorsonCentralAsiancurrentaffairsseemto clearer strategic vision where CentralAsia going people themselves Of course prognosticatorsby definition mustbe ahead thecurve theirtaskistoextrapolatefromtodaytotomor ButIthinkthe search fortrendsandforcesdefining developmentsintheregionhasgoneastraybecauseCen tralAsia isnotpredisposedtogoinanyparticulardirection Thisisnottosaythatitscountriesaretabulaerasae Imean isunproventhatanyofthem again Tajikistan civilwarmakesitaspecialcase haw6yetplottedcourses thatintersectwiththeconceptualframeworksthatschol arshaveimagined forthem Onelooks invain fordomi socialmovements strongpublic opinions guiding state ideologies notions historical mission states menwithfirm principles Insteadonefinds opportunis leaders willing tomakeanyalliances secure theminpower apatheticpopulationshungrierforbread forbig ideas widespread ignorance ofthe region historyandculture supposedlyimportantfactorscondi tioning people thinking today widespread curiosity about religion counterbalancedbyagenerallackof knowledge ofeventhebasictenets ofIslam If there dominant concern detectable among countriesofCentralAsia itistoimprovetheireconomic situation The reason pervading fascination America gripping masses Tashkent sophisticate Turkmen camel herder encountered nouveaux riches whoprefer glory living sovereign states relative affluence enjoyed under USSR Despitethegovernments paeansofpraisetothemselves independence represents necessary wouldhappilybetradedforareturntotheeconomically secure Brezhnev Amore appropriate slogan MarxorMuhammad tocapturethemoodofthere gionwouldbe MarxandMoney In picture depressing I sympathize withthewishofWesternspecialists tobelievethatthe region animatedbyideasmoreintellectually exciting thanthecraving foracarandsausages Onehopesthese emerge For present Central Asians looki theirleaderstomakethemricher Bycompari fanfare about independence celebrations commemoratingancient cities erectionofnewmuse publication ofKoransandtheworksofnation alistic writers suppressed Soviet regime recastingoftextbooks theproclamationofnewlanguage policies these aregiddy sideshows So confer enceswhereCentralAsiandeepthinkersswapideaswith thinkers about history teleology afternoon break bazaar eveningprogramoftraditionalfolkmusic Localintellec tualsareutterlymarginalized atthemoment Intellectual cultural flourishing It impoverished waitson success failure drive prosperity Thepreeminentillustrationofa bigidea sacrificedon thealtarofeconomicexpediencywasthe ofthe ShireenT Hunter CentralAsia SinceIndependence Praeger Westport discusslocalperceptionsofAmericainASA TalkoftheTown 1November1996 ASA UighursinShanghaion26April whenthe Central Asian countries signed neighborly treaty China Inexchange forthepromise oftrade agreements eachoftheregion spresidentsinturncommittedtostand against threats China territorial integrity fight separatistmovements Kazakhstan supports allmeasurestakenbytheChinesegovernmentformain taining national unity President Nursultan Nazarbayev Implicitly pledged quash UighurnationalistaspirationsinWesternChina putting paidtothe fictionthatTurkicunityrootedinshared faith bloodandhistorcouldeveroutweigheconomicexigen 1Nazarbayev reward September whenChinasignedagreementsworth 5billiontopur chase Kazakh build kilometer pipelineintoXingjiangprovince Nazarbayev betrayal oftheUighurswasahard headed economically motivatedandimmenselyprofit decision based geopolitical calculations It unambiguously highlights pillars supporting Central Asia Realpolitik economics geography Policy isshapeduandthere isnoreasontothinkthis should change forseeable future considerations muddy waters UnitedStates wheredebatecanbehighlypartisan about desirability oftradingwith pariah nations terrorism countries poorhuman rights cords acategoryintowhichthe CentralAsian states themselves Thesestateswillcooperate theymust withanyonewhowillaidthemintheirgoaltoovercome theirlandlockedisolation Insum thebusinessofCentral Asia isbusiness toparaphraseCalvinCoolidge Ethnic religious nationalistic historical moral factors trampled under Central Asia drive commoditiestohard currencymarkets Canwe eliminate notion forces pelling these countries mysterious directions shipsundertheaction ofunderwatercurrents Oncethe implications ofCentralAsia seconomicimperatives grasped surface geography stands surest pointer togauge future orientation Geographyis readyshapingchoices farmoredecisivelythanethnicor historical factors AcenturyagoTurkmentribesmenter rorized Iran outlying districts flooding market Bukhara Persian slaves Today Turkmenistan warmbilateralrelationswithIran onwhich itreliesas export conduit estimated trillion cubic meters natural Turkmen President Saparmurad Niyazov almost deliberately snubbedtheethnicbig brother Turkey llTherestofCen tralAsia sleadersareequallypragmatic freeof world historical romance comes seizing chance 2Russiaalone asthe colonialpower provokes suspicionandmistrust butallthecountries stillrelyon infrastructure degree another conse quently remained cordial But their interests maintaining cordial relations diminish proportionately opennew routes circumvent Russia ciallytothesouthandwest Nazarbayevisreportedtobe increasingly assertive towardMoscowin thewake pipeline dealwithChina UzbekPresidentIslamA Karimovhasmasterfullyma nipulatedacredulousWest especiallytheUnitedStates unfortunately reaction fundamentalism justifying repressive domestic policies interventions Tajikistan Afghanistan grounds battling Is lamicextremism athomeandabroad Yetthisconcern hasnotpreventedhimfrommakingfriendlydiplomatic demarchestowardsIran whichisUzbekistan sgateway Persian Gulf In likelihoodKarimovwillcoop eratejustashappilywithwhatevergovernmentsemerge fromthewreckageinTajikistanandAfghanistan lords nationalists Pushtunmoderates theTalibanorany otherbrandofMuslimmilitants iftheycanguarantee lawandorder AslongastheterritoriessouthofUzbekistanare inturmoil itscommerce communicationscorridorto Paki IndiaandtheArabianSeaisblocked Turkmen officialsforthrightlyadmittheywillwork withanyonewhocanbring olitical stability Peaceisamoralgoodinitself ofcourse andthegovern Ashgabat likes present itself region peacemaker having hosted number international conferences addressing region intractable civil Lurkingbeneath humanitarian gooding however solid geopoliticalmotivations Peace ghanistan would green light ambitious project developedbythe U S companyUnocaland SaudiArabia sDelta Oil thatwouldbringTurkmenistan revenueandjobs The consortium plans tobuild theDauletabad field nearMary meters across Afghanistan reach consumers Forafulleraccount seeASA TheWarriorsforUighurstans 31August1996 Foradescriptionofthemeeting seeASA PlayingGeopoliticsinCentralAsia TheTurkmenistan Iran TurkeyGasPipeline Project 27January Theiropportunism hardly surprisingwhenone considers climbedto ascommunist party secretaries Kyrgyzstan President Akaye whowas nevertheless important party member The Economist October Interviews Turkmen Foreign Ministry Ashgabat September A typical comment Turkmen newspaper Embodying itsownway themovementforpeacecommonto allhumankind Turkmenistan aimstobe anewpeacemaking center crucial disturbed Asia already succeeded doing lottowards regulating regional conflicts Neutral Turkmenistan 24September1997 spoketooneofficialwhoopined OurpresidentdeservestheNobelPrize Institute CurrentWorld Affairs Pakistan withapossibleextensiontoNewDelhi Anoilpipe linefomCharjouhasalsobeentabled Turkmenistanhasan estimated billion through whichUzbek andevenSiberiancrudecouldtraveltoanewporttermi nalnearKarachi Andonthe table these projectswill untilthatunlikelydaywhentheAfghanssinktheir differencesandorderisestablished TM TurkmenistanisCentralAsia smostavowedlyunprin cipled country inthe sense ofeschewinganyprinciples guidingstatepolicybeyondeconomicopportunism The statedoctrineisenshrinedinthenon doctrineof perma neutrality originally positive neutrality upgradedto permanent special resolution ofthe UNGeneralAssemblyinDecember1995 Despitebeing repeated mantra President Niyazov speeches andfaithfullyechoedbygovernment officials nooneis toosurewhatthephrasemeans Withthedisappearance military blocs Austria likely contender NATOmembership neutrality become concept drainedofmeaning aColdWaranachronism Onemight understandTurkmenistan neutrality apledge aligned Inreality itgivesthecountryafree handtobealignedwithanybodywhocan further terests itsrelationsunencumberedbyconsiderations beyondthebottomline The signal achievement theTurkmen ForeignMinistry situated appropriately Neutral Turkmenistan Street Ashgabat prochementwithIran DuringtheSoviet Turkmen hadnodirectaccessto Iran relationswereconducted throughMoscowandtheborderwasfixmlysealed Now crowds Turkmen women besiege foreign ministry department daily seekingpermission conducttheir suitcase trade acrosstheborder usually bybus TMWhiletheUnitedStatesslaps sanctionsonIran andthundersattheOldWorldimmoralityofEuropeans whodobusinessthereanyway Turkmenistancloaks permanent neutrality forges Iran probablythecountry sclosest allyontheworldstageto politicallyandeconomically Anewrailwaycosting 216millionwasopenedinMay linkingTejen inTurkmenistan toMashad inIran frontiertownofSarakhs whichhas status afree tradezone Cottonthatusedtotravelbytraintothe CaspianportofTurkmenbashi thencebyferrytoBaku thence train across Caucasus Black Sea thencebycargoship nowistransporteddirectlytothe portofBandarAbbasonthePersianGulf Intheopposite directioncome consumer goods Iran orDubai wellasKoreanandJapanesecargoesheadingforWestern Russ previously these loaded Nakhodka portinRussia sFarEast andhadtomakethewholejour neybytrain The railway trumpetedby Ashgabat newIronSilkRoad andevenbilled itasthepanaceato thecountry swoes In thelinesuffersfromanum ofdrawbacks AsIran railgauge compatible withTurkmenistan expensivenewcraneshadtobein stalled atSarakhsforchangingthebogies Moreover railwayon Iranian straight seabutmakesalongdetourviaTehran Nevertheless connection represents Turkmenistan smost signifi cantinfrastructualadvanceto Togetherwiththegas pipelinetoTurke reflectsTurkmenistan sdependence onIran ifthe country escape geographicalisola tionandhookinto awidereconomicnetwork Geopolitically minded journalists Central Asia speculate bottle vodka Pakistan support Taliban military trainingand supplies diplomatic Pakistan officiallyrecognized theirgovernment Afghanist linked Islamabad interest Central Asia oilandgas TheTaliban untilrecentlyappeared likely victors thewar Towardthebottom ofthe secondbottle ofvodka conspiracytheoriesbegin arrive postulatingCIAcovert assistance Taliban behalf Unocal American hydrocarbon giant Washington endorsement fundamentalist Taliban wouldbe politically embarrassing doubtless tomyknowledgeCIA support ofthe Taliban remainsanunprovenrumor 16Thetradersare90percentwomen interestingly askedonegroupwhytheirmenfolk oftenunemployed tparticipate BecauseTurkmenmalesarelaz3 wastold Theyrelyonustodoeverything Another intutivereasonisthatsingle womencantravelmoresafelythanmen Theyare lesssubjecttoattackbybandsofthievesandtoshake downsbycustoms officials Wecancharm Weremindthem oftheir mothers ASAo25 A Abdullakhan Afghanistan agama agate Agro Forest Amelioration Station Aktau Alma Ata Almaty Arabian Sea Aral Sea archeology Aristotle arkhar Bukharan mountain sheep Ashgabat Azerbaijan B Baku Baliqchi BandarAbbas barkhan barley basmachirebellion Beethoven Beg Ulug Bekobod Bishkek Black Sands Desert22 black saxaul BlackSea Bog Garden Ravens Black Kites Bukhara C camel camel thorn camels Caspian Sea Central Mionqol canal Chan Chun Charjou Chimkent China Chopin civilization Clash Civilizations thesis commodities communism cotton Lord Curzon D Gama Vasco dancing barkhans Dargom canal Darvaza Dauletabad field Debussy defensive depth Delta Oil desertification Dobrangeldi Madirayimov agriculture Dubai Dubyanskii Vladimir dutar E Egypt empires Mongol Sumerian Timurid endangered species environment Ersari tribe European Bank Reconstruction Development excessive cutting F Farhad Farhad Shirin Ferghana Canal Ferghana valley fundamentalism G Galaba G allaorol Grain Island pipeline Geographical Society geography geopolitics geothermal energy global pivotal Gokdepe government Gulf States gumbaz cupola H Halt Harappans hashar Heyerdahl Thor Hippodrome market history Hungr Steppe hunting hydrology Hydyr India Indus valley infrastructure development InstituteofWaterProblems Iran Iron Gate irrigation Islam Islamic extremism J Jetysai region Jizzak Jizzak steppe Jomboy K Kalahari Kal caravansarai Kamaliddin Binay Karachi Karakalpakistan Karakalpaks Karakul sheep Karakum Canal Karakum desert Karamet Niyaz Karimov Islam A Karshi Karshi Land Development Project Karshi steppe Kashi Main Canal Kazakhstan Kazanjik Kerki Khiva Khokand Khorgos Khusro Shah Persia Konye Urgench koshmas Turkmen Koson Krasnovodsk Kugitang Nature Reserve Kumli Kushans Kuwait Kuz menko Vladimir Kyrgyzstan KyzyI Orda L Labi Hauz LakeTuzkan Lanzou Urumqi railway Lapps Lebap district Lenin Lianyungan expectancy lifestyles M MacKinder Sir Halford Institute CurrentWorld Affairs Mahan AlfredThayer Mahsidi marinki Marjonbulok mines markhur Marxism Mary Mashad Masson M E medicine health Mediterranean Sea Merv Mesopotamia MinistryoftheEnvironment Mirza Rabat canal mountains Caucasus Molguzar Nurota Pamirs Tien Shan Murgab oasis music N Nadir Divanbegi madrasa Nakhodka natural naval supremacy Navoi Navoi Alisher Nazarbayev Nursultan Nebitdag NewDelhi Niyazo Saparmurad Nizomov Asror aligned O Omonqo Safe Sheep Pen oqsoqol Oriental Despotism Osh overgrazing Ovid Epistles P P highway Pakistan Pauli Wolfgang permanent neutrality Persian Gulf Petra phytomelioration pipeline poems poetry population Princess Shirin Q Qaydarko Qo quduq quduqchi R railroad railway Rakhmanov Jora Red Book Red Sands Desert Repetek Repetek Sand Desert Research Station rhubarb rivers Amu Darya Black Chirchik Euphrates Jaxartes Mississippi Sangzor Sokh Syr Darya White Zarafshon Rombonis opimus Rorty Richard Ro tterdam S Sahel salinization Samarkand Samarkandskiigidrouzel acacias Ammondendron Conollyl Saqqara pyramid Sarakhs sardoba Saudi Arabia saxaul bushes Scylla selin A ristida pennata shaduk Shaybaniy The Book Shaybaniy sheep shuvoq Silk Route slaves snakes cobra shitomorknik yurza salinization Soviet irrigation programs sphere influence Sredazgiprovodkhlopok Stalin Strabo Strauss Richard subsurface water suitcase trade T taganak Tajik Tajikistan takyric Taliban Tamerlane Tashkent Tashkent University Tehran Tejen Tejen oasis Teotihuacan theoryofthe heartland TohirandZuhra Toktoguldam Torugart To sinsoidam tradition trains Trans Caspian Railroad Trans Caspian railway Tsurikov Gennadii turanga trees P diversifolia Turkestan Turkestan Siberian Turkey Turkic states Turkmen Turkmen Foreign Ministry Turkmen tribes Turkmenbashi Turkmenistan Tu yaTortar U UAZ general purpose vehicle Uchajy Uighurs Ulysses UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Unocal Ur Uzbekistan V Vargsar W water management pollution water table watermelons wells wheat Wittfogel Karl World Island X Xingjiang province Y YakkaQuduq yantoq Ye llowSea Institute ofCurrentWorld Affairs Fellows their Activities InstituteofCurrentWorld Affairs Institute ofCurrentWorldAffairs FOURWESTWHEELOCKSTREET HANOVER NEWHAMPSHIRE 03755 ADDRESSCORRECTION REQUESTED Chosen basis character previous experience promise Institute Fellows young professionals funded spend minimumoftwoyearscarryingoutself designedprogramsofstudyandwritingoutsidetheUnited States TheFellowsarerequired reporttheir findings experiencesfrom field oncea month Theycan write anysubject asformally informallyasthey Theresult isauniqueform ofreporting analysisand periodicassessmentofinternationaleventsand issues Author Albion Adam Smith Title ICWA Letters Europe Russia ISSN Imprint InstituteofCurrentWorld Affairs Hanover NH Material Type Serial Language English C Frequency Monthly Other Regions East Asia Mideast North Africa SubSaharan Africa South Asia The Americas