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9/23/1961 - Two Interiors: China and a Geophysical Analogy by C. H. G. Oldham

NOT FOR PUBLICATION INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Two Interiors Hong Kong China Geophysical Analogy September Mr R H Nolte Institute Current World Affairs Madison Avenue New York N Y Dear Dick Last I eavesdropped conference social scientists gathered Hong Kong discuss economic sociological political problems China Southeast Asia They represented experts these three fields throughout world I privileged layman listening The meetings I listened I became struck similarities between symposium those geophysical symposis nature earth interior which I familiar In first place discussants basically For every speaker symposium I could think geophysicist would presented mater similar fashion There extremely mpetent chairman collected straight problem brilliantly concise summaries expert respected Then there asser tively himself speaking putting arguents forcefully though convinced wzong still delight listen I suppose discussions inevitably someone whose chief concern argue about definitions This symposium exception Then again there those become emotionally embroiled discussion whose ration ality completely disappears This happened arely notably connection politics subject renowned prickliness certainly happened geophysical meetings The comparisons could inefinitely perhaps striking similarity people similarity their problems Almost everyone enjoys detective story Whose gination stirred exploits Sherlock Holmes Polrot Maigret Mason How intrigued intrepid about marshalling clues logical order until finally their problem solved The detective nature their appeals 6eologlsts geo0hysicists their efforts unravel earth interior history For geologist clues entirely rocks geophysicist fortunate these clues access He measure earth gravity magnetism radioactivity He study nature earth response external stimulii earthquakes bombs Many I meetings discussed these facts together argued about solution problem earth interior really processes there These processes vitally important because determine formation continents which origin mountains lowlands They dramatic impact peoples lives because volcanoes earthquals which surface manifestations these processes So produced picture earth interio which facts The Jigsaw puzzle being complete geophysicists continue scurry earth surface collectin possible clues At symposiun I discovered another detectives They piecing together clues endeavourin6 learn about conditions interior earth conditions interior China The analogy developed fascinatin The overall problem roups basically namely discover place where cannot really yourself The processes going inside China immediate importance since economic political eruptions inside China likely repercussions throughout world The geophysicist measurements surface earth social scientist collect facts outside Chiua The geophysicist measures different manifestations earth interior The social scientist different manifestations measure He study official reports statistics Pekin However these their quite misleading other clues sought which indication reliability official reports The amount evidence which considered these experts assessing political climate quite staggering A great inclUsion omission paragraph edition another The presence person photograph relative compared someone ublication political undertones placing comma maybe significant It interestin learn precisely studies carried Communist cadres their efforts going headquarters One rather dubious source information refugees reports Some delegates symposium rejected these altogether unreliable nevertheless pieces refuee statements dissected analysed indications conditions interior Another source information occasional traveller manages spend weeks China His observations necessity superficial value social scientist least latter eophyslcist apart H G Wells fantasy Journeyed centre earth The Mohole nearest approach thing superficial layers penetrat It social scientists study China relations outside world irrefutable facts their disposal No questions China occupies Tibet there border incidents India shells Matsu Quemoy The economists amount trade carried between China other countries unfortunate sociologist nothing factual At symposium delegates tried piece toether various clues provide picture economic social conditions mainland China strlkin thing extent which group areed about little really known about these conditions I think perhaps their areement symposium point marked eophysicists aruin about earth although private geophysicists would probably agree about little really known about conditions interior earth It Jolt realize exprts population China anything better minus fifty million whther there labour horta They doubted there forward agriculture really whether communes success qustloned their existence apart places They crtainly longer bellev statlmtics Peking argued about flgurs ceased reliable apparently nothing crtain reported since Sino Sovlet relations another enigma Are relations really strained evldenc muggsts evidence deliberately manufactured mislead world Th experts admitted simply Analogies between different brnchem learning rofltable lessons experiences ideas branch usefully applied other The interior earth interior China different problems would ludicrous persue matter But CHGO useful tools Eeophysicist seismic method which response earth external stimulus carefully measured interpreted In principle approach would application problems studying China In latter external stimulii could series specific proposals economic political China outside world Her response these proposals analysed world basis would likely yield clearer indication political thought China Undoubtedly analysis carried individual Eovernments matters which relate their countries relations China international operation needed International China Year Finally Eeophyslcist friends intent studyin earth interior I point social scientists havin touher tryin ather facts about China But thine agreement about China policy expand I hesitate extend analogy suggest maybe expandin earth hypothesis should consideration other things analogous Sincerely Received New York September