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10/1/1992 - Who Lost Slovakia? by Chandler R. Rosenberger

NOT FOR PUBLICATION WITHOUTWRITER SCONSENT INSTITUTEOFCURRENTWORLDAFFAIRS HO LOST 5LOUKI I Chandler Rosenber Slovakiaissosmallthat ifthequestionof wholost iteverarose mightexpectpeopletopattheirpocketsandlookunder tlaecouch cushions Buttherecenttriumphofnationalsocialismhere theimpending breakwiththeCzechLandsandthecomingCommunistcoup willsend shockwaves nottemors throughtheso called Troika Czechoslovakia Poland Hungary It therefore worth taking broke Czechoslovakia where independent Slovak state heading MEIflR S SUCCESS THE FEDERflLISTS DISTRESS Witl Meiar Balkans sarcastic chant federalists heckledatlastsummer smassmeetingsoft Movementfora Sovereign Slovakia VladimirMeb_ iarwasSiovakia ssecondpost Communistprime minister Appointedtohepostbyacoalitionof VPN orPublicAgainst Violence KDH Christian Democratic Movement Meiar moved quickly topullmany oftheCzechoslovakFe deration spowerdotothe Slovak government PrivatJzation originally managed federal level became complicated federal Czech Slovak ministries Trade Economy Industry others Slovakia created Ministry InternationalRelaons Thefederation 968constitution withthevetc itgave toeach nation hadworkedundertheheavyhand ofthe CommunistPar I shifting alliances among splintering Communist partiesrendered itunmanagable Fed Meciar ransigence Prague frighDned overturesto oldstructures athomeandabroad ecoalition raisedhimhighs sftlycuthimdown InApril199I VPNandKDH deputiesin eMoakparliamentismis dhimand hisclosestallies Boparses however weremorllywoundedin ecoup SevenDen VPNdeputesinparliamentleft erleadersof revoluon suchasf echarismaticacrMilanKnazko UnderMe Jar leadership eyesblished MovementforaDemocrac Slovakia HZDS CHANDLER ROSINBF RGERien ICgA fellow thene notions ofthe formerAustro Hungarian Empire epeciallySlovakiaend CzechLrxd Since theInstituteofCurrentWorldAffairs theCrane RogersFoundation hasprovidedlong termfellowships enable outstandingyoungadultstoliveoutsidetheUnitedStatesandwriteaboutinternationalareasandissues Endowed bythelateCharlesR Crane theInstituteisalsosupportedbycontributionsfromlike mindedindividualsand foundations CRR VPN lostthe Prime Minister which KDH chief Jan arnogurskin exchange support Although KDH break upimmediately gursk_hadtoivetopjobstoleaders nationalistwing gradually undermined Who eonceandpresentPremier WhenMeiarvsrecruitedbythe CommunistsecretpoliceintNe1970 agentsnotod lathewasa right opportunist And indeed Meiar revolutionary rhetoric remains favor economic reform But HungarianeconomistJanosKovacsrecently givemethemostradi Anglo American libertarian puthim inpower ofapost Commumstsociety andwithinmonths llbelookingatanout outinterventionist The problem Kovacs explained politicians quickly become seduced regulated deregulation planned steps market Nowmixthisbrewofa strongs forliberalism withthe Slovak federalism Meiar generation As Vacl Havel points Summer Medita laeCzechand SlovakleadersofhePrague Spring quarrelledoverwhehheroreformonlyCommunistPartyor fight federalizing unibarysa based Prague Meiar justbackfromtwoyears ofstudy inMoscow ashenChairman SocialistYouthMovementof Slovakiaandanactivecampaigner federalism To Slovak Me genera representation Praguemeansonething grearac othesamoneyfor governmentprogramsinSlovakia Iftheendofsocialismmeanslesssae money willseekgrea rpowersoguidethemarkettowardhelping count ailing eastern In sense Sl ovaks Me Jar genera reforming Communists achieved Czech rpars leastgot theirfederation albeitato alitarianone Meiarhimself fellvictim 1970s normalization aatsweptclean hecountry politics universities schools newspapers Like Havel forced manual laborer UnlikeHavel histenureatthe eelbarrowwasverybrief In eearly teCommunistPart rehabilitatod Meiar sonthim CommeniusUniversityfacultyoflaw TherestudiedunderMariani Slovakia firstpost CommunistPrimeMinistor andmetttelawyerswl CRR I would future government Katarina Tothov Slovak MinisterofJusticeandJancuper nowafederalvice premier Therealso forged alliances legal skills necessary statetohisends ThereisnohardevidencethatMeiarworkedforthe secretpolice onlythathewasa candidateforcollaboration Filesin Treninthatmighthavecontainedhisreportsweredestroyedin ileMeiarwasMini steroftheInterior Buthisexperienceasa company lawyer glass factory Trenin certainly taughthim ropesof tronglyinterventionisttate ItwasMe_iar scommand ofCommunistlaw hisdesire regula regulation andhispastasanadvocatefor Slovakfederalismthatmade pointforce forging winning coalition His party gathered 38percentoftheSlovakvotein makingitbyfarthelargestpartyin Slovak parliament But parliamentary politics success another failure In Czech Lands Vacl Klaus iumphed oldstructures suchasthoseMeiaralignedhimselfwith Admittedly hedidn thave copewiththeresentmentthe Slovak nationalistswl ipped But nonetheless Meiar never faced serious opposition VPNortheKDH ofwhichquarrelledamongthemselvesratherhan build power bases Please withme yingounravel complicated weave Slovak politics necessary examine threads coalition thatfrayed VPNledth 1989revolutioninSlovakia Itnameditself PublicAgainst Violence asasymbolof itsoppositionothebrutalmethodsthe Communisused break public meeting underground church irstanti CommunistrallyinCzechoslovakia Butbythetime VPNs toIkaboutwhatitwasforratherthanWhatitasagainst ithad splintered seven different political pares Firstarnogurskleft Asthemovingspiritoftheundergroundchurch VPNmember established Communistpower Evenduringtherevolutionheusedto commute fromtheVPN ordination center grand Austro Hungarian palace street corner hisother office TheKDHfoughtthe1990elections andearned percent In managed percent NextcameMeiar whoformedtheHZDSinMay199I Inresponseb departure VPNs economic elite cameintoascendencywithinthe movement Jozef Kucerak disciple Milton Friedman close friend Vacl Klaus became party His strong support radical economic quickly alienated Alexander Dubek Dubek however could HZDS feared thatMeiar would endanger beloved federation He instead Slovak Social Democrats whowonfourpercentofheSlovakvoin Finally arnogursk fellvictimtothenationalistwingofhisownparty InFebruary JanKlepac thenamemberofthepresidiumof Slovak parliament decisive againsta constitutional agreement withtheCzechs Aninfuriatedarnogursktook Slovaktelevisiono condemn schismatics having deepened ongoing crisis republic They retaliated forming Slovak Christian Democratic Movement SKDH ministers committed Keynsian revival economy Prague They three percent Butwhathappened VPN famous dissidents close associatesof Vacl avHavel Whathappened tothepartythatcontrolled virtuallytheentiregovernmentandheldtoppostsinPrague Sadly wasitselfdividedwithin Sad still thesplitandinfightingwas acerbatd political style Havel followers RenamedtheObiansk Democratisk Uni ODU CivicDemocratic Union splitroughlyintoapro Havelfactionof dissidentpolitics andone committedtocloser tieswiththeCzech politician aclavKlausand practical politics While Havel sought preserve power unified group dissidents Klaus himself never dissident strying expand emovementandturn itintoa politicalparty Klaus Havel settled their differences Klaus control revoluonary movement Civic Forum turned political party Civic Democratic Party ODS Havel Castle groupofadvisorsdrawnfromthedissidentmovement ButinSlovakia factions simply lined their rival Czech allies fought contol VPN CRR The Havel faction opposed attempts movement party For years dominated executive ittee VPN mpted write constitution reserve unelected seats themselves They depended their positions Castle their power among Slovak elites Thisasnowaytolearnwhatordinarypeople Slovakiawerethinking ItsnotclearthatanyoneintheCastlecared MilanKEa nowofHZDS briefly presidential advisor complaining thathe Slovak andsallocated brief Slovakia Later Slovak advisors weregivenbriefsfor human rights Neimplicationbeingatonenever Kn iqswhattl oseother Slovaks willgetup Ratherthanreachoutthrougha politicalparty Haveland hisadvisors complained about Slovakia above In Summer Meditations Havel wrote Slovaks stirring falsehoods abouthis approach ovaKia Indeed rabidly Havel newspapers Koridor Iut complaining about booktebestway combatit The dissidents briefly daily newspaper Verejnost editorspub lishedself congratulatory articlesaboutthemovementrather address Slovaks concerns After selling I0 copies collapsed Havel advisors starting applying grants write analyses Slovak press All while Havel prestige their Castle Thanks neglect practical politics Havel advisors understandingof Slovakgrievances The Slovakstothisdaydonotwant independence Havel musings determination metaphysical Slovaksvotedforamanwhoclaimedtobedefending their economic interests separatist I onceranintoaformerleaderofODU alsoaHaveladvisor atabanquet Slovak academic foundation I mining fromPrae Itoldhimthatordinaryworkerswerecallingforhispartyto protect being fired their political beliefs Sipping heexplainedtomepatient tlaatleavingordinaryODUmembers without would better stand their Could ordinary Slovaks people eriously CRR Such dissidents lostpower atthe movement grass however When KuerakbecameleaderinMay1991 LikeKlaus hehadbeenan economistbutneveradissident LikeKlaus heaspired tostrengthenthe voiceoltemovement sregional cento rsbybuildingonanemerging enteprenurialclass Intheinte restofthereader Ihereannouncemy I worked Ku_erak believe approach democratic thanthatof dissidentpolitics LetmeciteHavelinmydefense In On eThemeofanOpposition printodin Havelwrotoat political programs notborn writers desks inventa stratogy outanarmy Then Havelrecognizedatonlypolitical parties filter complaints concerns ordinary citizens politicalprogramatrepresentseir intorestsandwinteirvotos WhenKueraktookover VPNstoodat2 7percentinopinionpolls When heresignedinOctober ODU asitwasbythenknown hadbetween8 I0percentsupportan asrising ButKuerakwasfrustratedat everyturnbyhisexecutivecommittee atthattime stilldominatedby Havel sadvisors Theydidnot forins sharehistasfort estuffof democracy public meetings Once Me_iar organized rally sovereignty Kuerak turned around brought peopleoutinfavorofthecommonsnte Forhistrouble sattacked thateveningbytheexecutive council othoughtsuchamovewastoo risky Mostimportanly Ku_eraks overtures Klaus regularly sabatoged executive council Hoping federation Klaus leading atcasalreadythemostpopular politicalparty intheCzech Lands seekingacoalitionpartnerinSlovakia Klauswasregularlyheldatarm lengthbytheODUexecutivecouncil until exasperated hedecidedtosetup ODS offices Slovakia Tragically itwastoola NeihherODUnorODShadtakenthetimebefore tteelectionstosetupstrongregionaloffices TheVPNttathadwon29 percent reduced scraping percent ODS earnedesame Neie rpassedtt e5percenttlreshold getinto parliament although would nowbe represented there hadtey formed coalition Taken togeer parties VPN excluding HZDS including minorities parties I discussed would haveamounted to26percent adecentrepresentation Divided VPNand KDH thedefendersof ecommon stateandeconomicand politicalreform wiped THE HD OF THE FF DERflTIOH The elections federation hands Klaus Meiar Inhefirst24hours Havel saidestriedbrieflytoorganizean Meiar federal coalition buttheschemeshowedmorenaivetthan alent Klaus ontheotherhand metMeiarimmediately Almostas immediately heannouncedthathefederationwas indanger Itsoon became clear thathe breaking pointwas expected J currency Some Me allies demanding arypolicyinhopesofinflatingtheCzechoslovakcrown smula consumption wihhin country ButMe_iar quickly discussion It clear nowthat Klaus willing economic collapse Slovakia merely ensure purity Czech reform oomuchbusiness isdonebetween herepublicsforheCzech Landsimply ocutandrun Thetwosideshavesinceagreedtoacustoms unionandacommoncurrencybeeenhhe republics Nor could break Klaus coupon privatization scheme AlthoughHZDSwasand ishostileotheprogram thatwouldbenoreason pushing forhecountry division since ecollapse federation woulddothescheme moreharmeventhatHZDScould Ra break question sovereignty Slovakia international recognition withinhe federation HZDS demands Onemightwellaskwhat sovereignty withoutindependence Indeed manydid whenitsproponentwasarnogursk notMeiar But tlietwopoliticianshaddifferentideasaboutsovereigntyand impor Toiarnogur tlenewstateconsitutionhadtosatisfy traditionalSlovakgrudgesagainsttheCzechs Theystemfrom Pittsburgh agreement which Czechs promised autonomy Slovaksthatwasnevergiven arnogur kwassatisfiedwith February 1991constitutionalagreement heMilovagreement thatsaid thetwopeoples eCzechsandle Slovaks acknowledgedeachother sovereigntybutweresimulaneouslygiving ituptoafederalgovernment atwould itselfbetheonlysubjectofinternationallaw CRR I WhatMeiardemandedwasmuchmoreextreme BothSlovakiaandthe Czech Lands would subjects international lawand their treaties Each functioning foreign office federal confederal foreign ministry would merely ordinate agreements Each would sovereignty legal matters federal would subservient republic The justification HZDS claimed Slovakia poorly represented Prague The Slovak government neededmoreof itsowpowers includingthepowertosignseparate treaties inordertoencourageWesterninvestmentandre build economy Hadsuchaloosest everprospered LadislavHohoMe Jar spolitical philosopher Belgium where Flemish French speaking partshaveforeignministers ButPavolBraJnka nowDeputyCzech Foreign Minis Belgium really model sbility whichtoaspire Moreover WhatevercompromisetheBelgiansmighthave comeowitl eirborders therearenotseparateseatsforFlemishand French speaking citizens United Nations Iwonder yweareforced toexplain thisissue Bratinkarecentlysaid TheIo akscouldnotexpectmorerepresentationinthefederal government already Although Czechs outnumbertl eSlovaksbytwooone ecomplicated 1968constitution resembles American compromise House Senate upper house House Nations composed Czech Slovak representaives giving Slovak republic equal affairs ButtheSlovakshaveafurtherpowerofvetonoAmericanstate enjoys halves House Nations separately every requires approval house If Slovak faction House Nationsmusteredamajoritythere theycouldblock legislationwila mandatetorepresent51percentofonethird orjustover I 6ofhe country population Bratinka frustration comes world especially U S decision break squabble which sides fault As result theCzechs likethe Slovaks willhaveore negotiate 600international agreements Bratinka estimates ministry years He askswho fault divorce party unreasonable CRR I conditions union party thatrefuses abide unreasonable conditions TheHZDSargumentagainstsuch politicalcalculations isthatrealbusiness isdoneoutsideofparliament They vegotacase TheFederalForeign Ministry under Jii Dienstbier notoriously Pragocentric His proposal Czechoslovakia should producing forteworld market devasta SlovaktownssuchasMar dependenton 72tank factory Afederalassault onthisindustry howeverperniciousthearms mighthavebeen wasanattackon Slovak livelihoods The Slovakscouldalsoclaimthatsomesortof Prague filter existedina federalgovernmentand politicalculturedominatedbythe sdissident community The Czechoslovak ambassador United States Dienstbier publically Slovaks dangerously prone SemitJsm received serious rebuke Western journalists either Prague further routinely teate Slovakia either notworththetriporaneasyhatchetjob themostglaringexamplebeing Henry Kamm NewYork Times formula piece Slovak Semitism ButtherewasnobasisfortheMeiarclaimthatthe Slovak representatives ODU KDH betrayed Slovakia favor Prague dissident friends Pavol Deme ODU Minister International Relations professional office Bratslava aggressivelysoughtinvestmentfor Slovakia Meiar evidence ODU KDH governments betrayed Slovakia different effect federal economic policy republics Yes foreigninvesnentintheCzechLands shigher But Western businessmen working republics itwas easier Prague because Czech Lands didntsuffer Slovakia Tvlafia connections between bureaucrats factory managers andMe_iar sshadowgovernment WhenMeiarwontheelection afriend atPrice Waterhouse wrote thecount Me iarwasnotthe solution problem CR I Yes unemploymentin Slovakia higher chart I But Slovak industry suffered economic reform because industry beenbuilt notseized byUaesta HadSlovakbureacratsandfactory managers allowed Western companies buildnewfactories ratherhan stifle attempts favour minority share investments their unemployment Unemployment Rate Czechoslovakia Region problem would May mporary endemic The Prague Slovak government recent promise emphasis experienced manage Bratislava Communist I Io elite demonstrates representing V V Wl collars bluecollars Itisalso JFrtrneporter wortl noting Slovak unemploymentis somewhatartificial Unlike Czech Lands sometimes possible claim compensation thefactory firingyouandthegovernment There smuch lessincentiveto NorrasU ereanybasisforHZDS smostdamningclaim thatglovakiawas beingeloitdforsemi finishedgoodsthattl eCzech Lands U completed abroad higher profit Roman Zelenay previously Meiar minister internaUonal relations advocated breaking federal sttucture systems based republics scheme claimed wouldbringinmorerevenuesthanthecurrentsystemoftransfers Asthe chart nextpage shots nothing could fromte glovakia stands billion crowns million USD subsidies oncethefederaltaxsystemisabolished That salotof hidden valuefor qlovak goods tomake Ueir ThefinalblowcamewhenHZDSvotedagainstHavel inthepresidential elections IdoubtHaveleverunderstoodSlovakia buttheactwas nonetheless provocative Czech public opinion swung sharply furtter towards split CRR II Redistributing Income The Czechoslovak TaxScheme crowns crowns crowns crowns Czech Czech crowns Czech Net Slovak Slovak SlOVak Allocation federal taxes republics Total taxes Allocation taxes Total allocation republican federal levels Payment federal taxes totalling billion crowns republics I allocated republics federal level shown proportional terms shows allocation taxes federal level republic proportion their populations shows total allocation taxes republic showing their apean SLOVAKIA TO THE BALKANS ButisSlovakianowheadingtards eBalkans WhetherornotMeiar favorsafreemarketisnowalmostbesidesthe point Hismovement gathered former secret police agents desperate block their activities factory managers federal state subsidies quislings Communist trade unions judges regime unwillingtosentencetheirfriends Itresemblesnothingsomuchasthe CivicUnioninRussia If mehow anindependentSlovakiamanagesto produceamarketeconomy itwillberunbyandfortheold elite Look forinstance atLudovit ernak Me Jar snewMinister ofthe Economy Beforeeelection iernak wasedirector aluminum factoryin iarnadHradom Itmadenoeconomicsensetoproduce aluminum tlere fulfilled Comm unistambition industrializing Slovkin nriclhlrnlnndcon dHrono_m__ absorbed rmllion crowns porcent Slovak budgot Worse still itdependsfor itscoalonamineinneighboringNov kyrather thanmoreefficientCzechmines Costothestate another280million crowns Neitherbusinesspaysmuchattentiontotheenvironmentormuch money waste disposal Nov pollutes Nitra river Hron This isthemanthegovernmentexpectsofulfil itsprogramfora functioningmarketeconomy withroomfor socialpolicyandforecology Or Lubom Dolgo former member Slovak Ani Monopoly Officeremoved forhissuspicious tiestothestatemonopolies Doloisnow Slovak Minister Privatization One first office scrap Colgate Palmolive purchase Slovak Kosmeticka signed arnogursk government He annulled privatizaon nubiaprint Slovakia sonly large scalepriningpress promisinglatero manager instead Dolgo marketeer Kovasc describes ansformation laboratory The problem arnogursk government hetoldme hatitlackeda concepion Raherthansellquicklyand tothehighestbidder asithaddone Dolgo IIdivideheSlovakeconomy intothree sections ategicallyimportantfirmsthatcannotcompeteand require suppor compete Western companiesand there orerequiresomeproction lessimportantfirms atoughtodieinefaceofWesterncompetition Slovaks forinstance cannotmakecomputers letSlovaksbuyIBMs lovakscan however ibutegoods yshould Westerntuckingfirmsbeallowedooperate Dolgo proposed holidays other incentives Slovakia compete other EastEuropean countries Western investment All things being equal would appeal Slovakia agreed customs union Czech lands firms access Czechs hrough Slovakia iftheygetshutoutofPrague Butallthingsarenotequal especially Weste firms kinds political necessary businesswill regulatingderegulators It salsonotyetclearhowlonga customsunion betweenthefree marketCzech LandsandDolgo Slovakia willsurvive Ifitcollapses Westernerswillscaletheiroperationsdo fromonesservinga 15millionmarketoonesservingSlovakiafivemillion CRR I The Slovak government eager International Monetary Fund writen admirably responsible firstdraft budget The deficit independent Slovakia within IMF sfivepercentbounds Iutwillpoliticiansof ernakandDolgo leaningshavehhewherewithalosticktolaeirplans Awildcatminers ikeinSeptemberwasinstructive If aeywerecynicalenough Slovakgovernmentmightopenly tellpotentialinvestorsthatthe governmentwascloseenough totheoldstructurestobeabletoensure socialstability ButSlovaksocietyhasopenedupjustenoughtoallowfor independentaction When2O0coalminersdecided independentofe tradeunions tosag eanundergroundstikeinfavorofan 18percentwage governmentquickly Teachers turning increasingly anewindependentunion topresstheirclaims They willhavemoreto pressforoncetheovernmentcutsdistrictbudgetsby 20percentinorder tokeepdown deficit Butcount survived economic times remained democratic GermanyafterheSecondWorldWarisagoodexample Shouldtheworst comeand Slovakia seconomy fallapart willMe Jar sgovernmentremain committedo socie The signs The HZDS genuine democrats chips their shoulders about Pragocentism federal governmentdidsolit eodispel ButMeiarhimself isproneo authoritarianismofthemostdangerouskind thatoftoalitarianlaw A totalitariansediffersfromamerelyauthoritarianonein thatitisbased itsowntwisted rules rulesthatkeepappara hiksfromsppingonone anotl stoesand inaperverseway makes emmoreefficient Their beneficiaries rules Today Slovakia independent newspaper 9nena isthesubjectofacriminalinvestigationpromp color black rather after Mei wasre elected Wehave tofindoutwhytheyattackedme Me iarsaid announcing investigation And before crisis Worsestill theHZDSmaywellfallapart The Partyoftl eDemocraticLeft SDL ispreparingministerstoakepitions inanticipationofHZDS break early Whatever Meiar faults these peopleWhofirstbrandedhima right wingopportunist heformer CRR I CommunistParty ernak Ministry Economy asked Slovakia regional offices write scheme rationing ensuring thenewprivate shops stock supplies thatheoldst aeshopsweresupposedokeepinreserve Whetherthisis aroutinerevision orpreparation forahardwinter isnotyetclear But sadly balkanizationof Slovakiawouldnotbecomplete withouta TheCzechsandtheSlovaks nomatterwhatthetensionsbetween governments fight Iut since Slovakia forged ahead hydroelectric projecton Danube River Hungarians downstreaminBudapesthavebeenseelaing Acollapseofhe Slovak economy would likely HZDS rards protectionism amove thatwould rustrate plansoHungarianarmers outhern Slovakia domorebusinesswithBudapest HowwouldtheHungariansrespond The governing Hungarian Democratic Forum MDF drifting right populism order bolster popularity count yside While itsForeignMinist rhasclaimedtorepresentHungariansonbothside itspost 1918borders hehasnotyethadthenervet tanglewiththe RomaniansortleSerbs ButSlovakiadoesnotevenhaveitsoarmyyet ShouldtheMDFneedasmallvarbeforethe 1994Hungarianelections Sadder still Slovak government despite terrible reputation abroad would probably innocent victims Slovakiawouldnotbeingcareeningtowardsindependencehad itnot electedVlad imirMeiar itsPrimeMinister Iuthewonbecause dissidents Prague Bratislava failed Unfortunately Me Jar movement protectionist policies deservedly reputation among Western businessmen fulfil promises improve Slovakeconomy Buttheironyofanationalistmovementistlatitrelieves thetensionsthatititselfhasraised HoweverdarktheSlovaks futuremay theirs theirs alone Chandler Brati Sqo Received Hanover