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5/7/1987 - Pre-election Impressions by Erik R. Guyot

NOT FOR PUBLICATION WITHOUT WRITER S CONSENT INSTITUTE OF CURRENTWORLD AFFAIRS ERG I A Ilongot Layista Subdivision Quezon City Metro Maniia May Pre election Impressions I Election Fever II Broadside Pear Harbor III The PhiIippine Navy IV Croupmorers Mr Peter Martin Institute Current World Affairs West Wheelock Street Hanover NH 03755 Dear Peter Manila currently suffering drought power black rumors election fever After weeks quickly swept military alerts prison escapes renegade soldiers campaign itself This newsletter reflects confusing events I caveat follows first tentative impressions Election Fever After leaving Manila International Airport first election underway coconut trees their trunks bandaged white campaign posters Almost every verticle surface names faces candidates highway overpasses thatch roadside stalls abandoned Jeepneys vintage jeeps converted stretch passenger vehicles career through traffic loudspeakers blaring candidate jingles One popular tunes The Caissons Go Rolling Along On smaller streets congressional candidates through crowds followed their supporters herald their arrival bullhorns Any predictions outcome would foolhardy superfluous since getting results before receiving Yet points drawn hubub Erik Guyot Institute Fellow studying U S security assistance Philippines Thailand ERG For recognition everything With senator candidates running nation seats congressional hopefuls scrambling local districts little wonder average voter naming choices The Senate candidates endorsed President emphasize Cory choice through radio voice overs President pictures candidate President Aquino raising hands together anticipatory triumph Candidates conservative opposition inventive The posters Abul Alonto formerly number muslim rebel leader turned assemblyman feature scowling Time magazine cover encaptioned Muslim Guerrilla Apparently believes getting known through glory outweighs possible disadvantages being associated tabloid headlines scream muslim separatists bringing their terror campaign Manila Second people decisions along other rational party lines For example I three recent school graduates enthusiastically named their Senate choice Wigberto Taada He administration candidates endorsed Partido Bayan which ically aligned communist party They support because program because fraternity brother another university And Taada would Their reply maybe The young receptionist Red Cross office likes opposition leader Juan Ponce Enrile heartedly insists because hails native Ilocos region She likes Rene Saguisag administration candidate particularly terms Enrile apparent contradiction supporting candi dates Amid banks hotels Makati Manila financial district secretaries computer operators picketing front Philippine National Oil Co giggle Agusto Sanchez Aquino labor minister removed being labor Meanwhile waterfront longshoremen strike Sanchez They voting Blas Ople labor minister under Marcos because centrist From random talks people appears group Watching May rally workers cannot impressed their organization discipline three large streams ERG I workers march converge along Manila Large banners flags proclaim Expose Oppose Imperial U S Domination Down With IMF World Bank Com while marchers chant Tagalog The KMU people The leftist Kilusang Mayo Uno KMU labor federation claims about members figure disputed independent sources Arriving rally strict discipline disinte grates however marchers break ranks slake their thirst fruit drinks others wander behind grand stand stroll along Manila Bay Chatting people crowd struck consistency which almost borders uniformity answers Have things gotten better under Cory government No things haven changed Kris construction worker sporting sunglasses reluctant American Who Seven seven candidates Partido Bayan admin istration candidates which supports The elections gauge support Depending sources million supporters liberal newspaper influence villages Department Delense Broadside Pearl Harbor Before arriving Manil I stopped Honolulu interview dozen military officers analysts They diverse ranging colonel basically legal U S security sistance former zoologist clearly entranced minutae Philippine history polit Their critical assessment Philippine military Philippine institutions reflected their position individuals close generals admirals region frustrated their inability affect events The location three headquarters I visited Honolulu tells about their status By water Pearl Harbor which headquters Pacific fleet clearly active andhas largest array radio antennae Despite marijuana breath Marine guard while hours security quite tight entrance secured spiked steel revolving doors monitored guards enclosed control booth Halfway mountain forms Oahu Fort Shafter headquarters Army which something country softball field building On ERG mountain survey entire island perpet ually enshrouded clouds Camp Smith headquarters three services There fitness watchword swarms officers jogging around intervals between showers Sitting office overlooking third analyst claimed Armed Forces Philippines AFP about under Marcoso Although leadership decapitated about thirds present generals replacements military remains basically unchanged According there still input military expertise since promotions under Aquino based professional criteria where officer stood As example pointed Air Force Commander Major General Antonio Sotelo In fastest promotions Philippine military promoted colonel Wing Commander general command about In should pointed Sotelo defection turning point February revolution Regarding Chief Staff General Fidel Ramos analyst criticized lacking leadership skills unable military decisions When faced options Ramos tends waffle decison An incident often cited Ramos critics handling January attempt which general negotiate mutinous colonel However other observers I spoke maintained Ramos tough pinch decisive action necessary One analyst Ramos plays linch spark That Ramos holds together various factions AFP through mediation instead exacerbating tensions dramatic reforms To return first analyst acknowledged Ramos taken important measures field First Ramos moved combat battalions which Manila guarding Marcos provinces And second consolidated isolated units hinterland order withstand attacks New People Army NPA But claimed there gentleman agreement between local commanders NPA peacefully together since AFP power stomp NPA NPA content continue organizing activities uninterrupted When large AFP units maneuvers carefully publicized beforehand leaks through informers result ERG NPA encountered The battalion commander report pacified knowing after enough reports Manila A glance newspaper headlines confirms injunction AFP battle reports healthy ticism Less hours north Manila about troops backed helicopters overrun large NPA train encircled rebels Conflicting reports claimed NPA killed including vincial NPA commander Yet local journalists visiting reported signs fighting NPA commander later appeared televison interview announce death greatly exaggerated The whole affair dubbed refer traditional muslim plays about between christians muslims which christians invariably At recent press conference AFP Vice Chief Staff media partners creating conflicting military reports quested reporters limit their sources official press releases interview AFP field commanders I another pessemistic military analyst office where large computer printout poster cliamed block letters Colonel North proactive Although obser vations Philippines quite cogent seemed might Sandinista commandante Rapidly ticking points The elite doesn seriousness insurgency detailed NPA problem AFP Moreover middle class understand their salvation rests salvation lation They fight willing their perogatives instead U S Finally middle class doesn demand enough government terms honesty impro vements nationalism middle class weaker ideology communists I asked comparison 1950s government wrote dealing insurgency His response In 1950s everyone could leave U S green Mani endangered oasis elite scared would reformist President Ramon Magsaysay encroach their perogatives What about draft would middle class involved No draft would unenforceable would gravely embarrass ernment showing lacks power enforce Thus Pearl Harbor euphoria people power February revolution quickly ERG I In place sense every Philippine institution NPA ineffective effete Whether these observations valid while The Philippine Navy Tucked between Manila modest sized yatch Philippine Cultural Center imposing shaped structure headquarters Philippine Navy The contrast between small Navy buildings neighbors reflects Navy present status The sloops pleasure cruisers yatch appear newer Navy seventeen largest ships And immense cultural center white elephant built Imelda Marcos million pesos dwarfs Navy buildings expeditures flashy Air Force fighters overshadowed spending Navy ships Last I asking Philippine Navy officer about efforts corruption Navy procurement something He pulled photo business check pesos about quarter salary The check thank company which recently Navy contract He returned original check contractor saying Look friend I because lowest If someone cheaper I change He these checks almost weekly photocopies returns report since useless The problem diplomatic without embarrassing So I If I I write It tradition helping friends explained checks slacked since promoted clean Navy chasing None companies which checks American The Japanese companies which checks apparently business personal their style calling checks rebates The officer interesting fellow A former under water demolitions expert trained U S personnel during Vietnam War fiercely nationalistic something anomaly officer A retired commodore handled logistics under investigation military antigraft board He lives officer quarters three children reliable indicator wealth ERG officer house thereof His daughter rently college attending military academy after finishing public school because education expect Both parents school teachers He claimed military officers middle lower middle class since upper class stand military What follows brief rundown state Philippine Navy pieced together demolitions expert counterpart Honolulu deals bolts U S military The Navy personnel heavy commissioned officers about ships which operational according Philip officer Some U S officials igure lower claim operational merely means leave carry mission Back early 1960s Navy operational readi Fate perhaps An American officer ascrib decay Navy declining funds U S technicians Currently Navy stretched trying requests support troop transport trying interdict various smugglers runners These argued should expanded country islands strung miles As people refuse understand Philippine Navy plays vital shifting troops support Over years Navy likely increase Two weeks Admiral James Lyons commander U S Pacific fleet reporters there question Soviets supporting NPA Last March Pentagon first ioned unconfirmed reports weapons shipments possibly North Korea Vietnam At present Admiral Lyons statement reported press appears premature General Ramos declined confirm whether there shipments Man people however assize matter before NPA receives abroad Two after Admiral Lyons statement spokesman communist National Democratic Front Lybia NPA expected receive external imperialist forces without specifying vidual countries ERG With statute miles coastline patrol Philippine Navy faces formidible If Navy U S requested repairs construction interdict possible shipments The demolitions expert laughed called longshot U S increasing mobility Philippine Armed Forces rather headlines recently The House Representatives military million coming AFP spokesman Colonel Honesto Isleta summed frustration AFP They U S bases basic concern So cough The demolitions expert dramatic expressed urgency shared other officers There still because three years useless You fighting Whether Congress later reverses decision vagaries congresional budget making understood appre ciated The Philippine Navy planned about S14 million repair construction patrol boats Over years purchase these craft With naval officer maintained while U S practically gives everything there difference between giving receiving As measure Navy putting outboard motors I00 bancas tradi tional wooden hulled boats Each banca people about pesos approximately The officer smiled noted sastisfaction horsepower motors Japanese built North Manila Subic Naval Base Philippine U S personnel jointly overhauling Patrol Craft Escourts These sized ships length fully loaded rather maximum speed knots They being repaired about million After jointly repairing ships Subic Philippine Navy hopes retool repair about labor But amount U S Philippine officer pointed process These ships neglected fifteen years repaired overnight The being repaired built ERG I The military appears added strain normal U S Philippine negotiations ilitary hardware Honolulu conducting mobility study Philippine Navy entire AFP recommended streamlined ships According U S officer Navy should spend million dollars three dation teams which U S technical assistance would inventory immedi ately From Honolulu perspective perfectly logical there puzzlement Phi lippine Navy enthusiastic Like instituion Philippine Navy reluctant inventory The Philippine officer emphatic U S study wrong adding relying numbers According officers throughout AFP mobility survey military holding throat balls Another contention involves amphibious tracked vehicl LVTPs The Philippine Marines number The Marines repair putting diesel engines troop transport million Honolulu mobility study however found there An American official involved program several reasons LVTP wrong vehicle troop transport heavy cross bridges armed howitzer which useless against guerrilla force rocket propelled grenade knock A truck would efficient claimed He believed reason request officer wants favor Marines It would better bought helmets On Philippine amphibious vehicles vital Philippines terrain The request sudden For several years Marines pushing LVTPs In there plans years LVTPs loaded transport battalions anywhere archipelago within hours As disputes there arguments sides cultural factors complicate issue Part turnover U S military sonnel Manila whose function smooth discord It problem demolitions expert explained really culture environment every I After while however things themselves He spoke warmly recently departed American officer relationship ERG Croupmorers By receive undoubtedly received ongoing attempts Manila Reporters receiving incessant anonymous phone calls describing impending coups which makes tension gives government jitters Although these serious covered later croupmorers At recent press conference Colonel Honesto Isleta AFP spokesman displayed Filipino penchant verbal wizardry depending perspective He blamed reports rumor mongers croup morers As colonel explained The strategy I I croupmorer immediately Do Ramos ambushed Santa Mesa Manila And receives prised What What What happened How And caller Well Lucy She Wait minute Lucy Oh I sorry wrong number immediately phone And Lucy Hey I something I should I better another friend And friend calls another until I better Rod Navarro Marcos radio announcer And calls Rod Navarro without confirming And Mindanao hears General Ramos ambushed Such stuff coups The trick seperate makers croupmorers Sincerely Received Hanover