© 2007 Institute of Current World Affairs
The Institute awards long-term fellowships to develop a deep understanding of an issue, country, or region outside the US and to share that understanding with a wider public.
Institute of Current World Affairs - Home Page

Below is a hobbled text version of a PDF document.
In order to read the actual document please click the link below and register if necessary.
(One-time registration is free and very quick.)
Read article

5/31/1961 - The Population of Malaya: Economic and Political Implications by Gayl D. Ness

INSTITUTE OF CURRENT 7OKLD AFFAIRS Road The Population Malaya Petallng Jaya Selangor Economic Political Implications Malaya 31May Mr Richard H Nolte Institute Current World Affairs Madison Avenue New York New York Dear Mr Nolt The greatest resource nation population Like others rezource varies quality This variation important implications expressed national goals peclally underdeveloped countries where income makes margin error small If these nations achieve their goals heavy claims their people As Malaya embarked total development program useful human resources country available What growths composition Malayan population imply development process political stability For Malaya nations economic growth political economic problem The attainment growthwill depend existence government stable rational enough major entrepreneurial development process Malaya census 19357returned total population million ersons Of these million Ms_lays million Chinese In addition there Indians 112000 Europeans others Numerically itically economically Malays Chineseerethe important groups population The total population growing Malaya Population about millions This means population doubled within generation Medium projections Depart merit Statistics indicate total population about million The Malays Chinese expected increase their propor tions population remain today That there nothing expected popula growth decades alter political balance The Malays continue slight advantage total population polls The current population increase h_igh Malaya During century popuAation growing about There great change however cause growth Before immigr Now Immigratlon cotrlbnted eavily populatio growth completely stopped population growth results great surplus births deaths atural icrease Chinese imigration began large scale altarS British admioistratlon Singapore Straits Settlements especially Peang Malacca The immigrants chiefly young bodied maklnrg returning China The result Sioga O there males female among Chioese As Chinese izigratlon continued migrants settled larger numbers emsles arrived By ratio males female Today sexes alzost equal There immigration Malays Indonesiat scale smaller Chinese Indians Ceylon South India began igrating Njlaya large numbers early century They largely imported rubber plantations Today communities growing natural increase rather immigration Malaya current population growth Just example population explosion reaching almost astro _omcal proportions income countries It results rapid decline death while birth remains From Malaya crude deathsper opulation During period birth increased B3 births I OO0 popula It OOO double population within generation The chaning pattern growth Igration marked effect structure population Malaya popula sgrowing younger The proportion population under increased steadily continue 4ecade proJectlons Per population under years This frustrating ironies nationhood Thirty years Malaya development concerned educating children third population young dependent group More population working Today Malaya commi ttedto economic development finding place school children And today almost population young dependent group Among nderdeveioped countries world Mslaya q0erience exception The contrast industrialized countries great following table shows Per total population under Average Asian countries Average Europe U S With lower manpower productivity wealth Asian countries proportionately dependents fewer workers industrial countries A young rapidly growing population expensive population respects First young consame produce anything decade There betweem expendi tures returns income countries afford More Just involved however income countries death rates especially rates infant mortality Malaya rates lower those countries infants first Despite relatively standard living Malaya expect young beyond This large segment population consume clothiag shelter education contribute elopmea effort A population growth requires rates investment capita income declining Mm assumes ratio investment increased income On assumption country invest least national income simply capita income However Malaya faces additional difficulty having national income closely price rubber The second makes allowance price O pound neriod The price isalready pound With price population increase investment target natiOnal income Eventhen Capita consumptlom declinimg drawing foreign reserves If population growth could decreased would consume increased wealth This would allow greater surplus investment building larger productive capacity alone eliminate poverty As there appears little awareness Malaya costs rapid population growth Expert opinion argues Malaya population problem because there still available A rapidly groing population means large numbers young people added potential force The second estimates thatthe total force increasd persons during period In small measure political stability depend ability economy provide employment these additional orkers What recent changes Malaya force signs coming changes Malaya economically active population those working looking grown steadily throughout century It almost persoas betweea At number males rapidly Thus proportion working latlom economically active declined Malaya economy still marked small family establishments absorb increase working population These returned census unpaid family workers Although thorough survey unemployment levels appear In census force returned looking This appears pleasantly anomolous situation developing nation As population continues younger perhaps another decade proportion working group orklng continue decline However family remains important economic institution perhaps thana decade continue absorb unemployed allevlatSn potentially serious political problem One important differences between communtles Malaya industrial distributioa labor force It useful _customary divide economy three broad sectors agriculture manufac turing services TI I distribution looks Industrial distribution labor force Total Malays197 Chinese Indians Agriculture Manufacturing Services unclassified unemployed bring total column A ricultur often primer_ includes ulture forestry hunting fishing Maqufacturin secondary sector includes mantacturing propr construction mining utilities Services tertiary sector includes commerce finance trans6rtation communication governmentr professional personal services The Malays always heavily concentrated agriculture They small holding cultivators holding acres rubber trees They modern plantation agriculture The Malay labor force agriculture concentrated services almost clusively government servlce police armed forces The Chinese represented sectors In agrlcut almost equally divided between cultivation plantations They found parts manufacturln sector where about third employed unpaid family workers In services Chin commerce where labor force majority employed unpaid family workers The small family restau orshop rather accurate stereotype Malayan Chinese There however increasing numbers Chinese government transportation Like Malays Indlmus found either agriculture services Unlike Malays however indians agriculture almos exclusively BO plantation agriculture They services The agricultural slantation workers Indians small keepers drivers government employees personal servants Economic development generally assoc iated decline proportion I0 labor force engaged agriculture This experience Malaya decade communities shared declining importance agriculture It important which agricultural sectcs growi agricultural rapidly If development process labor force going early stages there should rapid increase proportion services labor force engaged manufacturing If services sector expanding rapidly indication reasin employmentor underemployment Though conceled labor force statistlcs thereby eliminated politiaml problem At least period BO Malaya manufacturing labor force rapidly services labor force This was30 manufacturing communities Ihmy estimation single encouraging measure L O Malaya demographic It indicates there sufficient vigor growing modern industrial sector larger larger share T labor force It sector rapidly Malaya transformed modern industrial GDN The current vigor zaufacturing sector largely The total manufacturing sector reflection building almost workers The incresse Manufacturing In construction workers almost creased OOO mining IO OOO utilities The building continues least general appearances newspaper accounts canbe trusted Roads bridges homes buildings scraping office buildings shoot night though buildings faster roads bridges Primitive modern methods Juxtaposed Wooden scaffolding rises fifteen stories beside steel derrick Labor intensive methods explain force sector increased rapidly The growth rapid indicated figures I coTnted workers In constructlon there large numbers omenas Chin glrlson buildings ldlan roads Dressed black flowered paJas faces covered against iense bonnets Chinese building girls carrying poles shovels colonies black They really Joy watch their light chatter gracef though constant movement In evenings roads fleets bicycle gentle laughter banter smiling white teeth strong bared catch evening breeze I remember being presse eerish activity construction workers In Japan passed through early I Naya smile pressio Is totly different There Is great actlvity Is feverish It buslg Jotli chatterinE activity It might could catch splrlt Chinese buldlng girls eerienclag considerable movement population areas Te proporo population living areas places I00 increased steadily I0 period rapid Increas carrying stick wasbetweeni thatgoiththebuildlagboom In there oly20 population excess population I0 today there The urban places I0 O00 dlslocatio second world Japanese occupatlon alzozt brought urban migra between19O Then during Emergency there great flight voluz forced protection rorists Until census known whether I rapid urbanization continues My guess continued movement might increased government prefers believe otherwise It counting ruraldevelopment drive migration There inconsistancy national goals I shall future newsletter Urban Malaya predominantly Chinese Almost thirds total urban population Chinese almost Chinese urban areas Only fifth urban population Malay tenth Malays urban areas All communities shared movement towns Chinese moved slightly rapidly Ns_lays Indians This again reflects exigencies Emergency It principally Chinese squatters relocated toons supply lines terrorists Along urbanizatio there movement population between states Federation The census counted million migrants people state living another census enumerator around In internal movement Chinese again moved Malays Indians Despite interna movement distribution population ambng states changed little between Part change results genere_l urban movement Selangor Kuala Lumpur registered small increase proportion total population There other important effect internal movement The small change distribution population direction deconcentration munities greater_ nationalization communlties The Chinese gained states Kedah Kelantan where under represented They states Johore Perak where represented The Ma That communities become concentrated specific regions beccme truly national ations This rapid I believe significant GDN Both urbanization internal migration impor political implications The tendency communities share cities andthe increasing nationalization pulation augur political stability Other things being equal course never reduces potential regional politics could obstruct national development effort Cue consider regions Southern United States2French Canada Katanga problems regional politics oring For wealthy nations regionaiism income countries Jrmeans chaos In Nalaya demogra phially important consideration foundation national politics being strengthened regionalism being It admitted however there still The total demographic situation 4alaya gives optimism pessimism future economic development In terns movements population changes labor force generally encouraging They future bright There serious discouraging however popula growth apparent concern prcblem among Malayan leadership Unless costs rapid population grovth fully appreciated country could serious trouble despite availability unused Sincerely Oayl D Ness Arrived New York June