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12/6/2003 - The Coming Hydrocracy: Arid Africa as the Water Runs Out by James G. Workman

ICWA LETTERS Since Institute Current World Affairs Crane Rogers Foundation provided fellowships enable outstanding young professionals outside United States write about international areas issues An exempt operating foundation endowed Charles R Crane Institute supported contributions minded individuals foundations TRUSTEES Bryn Barnard Joseph Battat Steven Butler Sharon F Doorasamy William F Foote Peter Geithner Kitty Hempstone Katherine Roth Kono Cheng Li Peter Bird Martin Ann Mische Dasa Obereigner Chandler Rosenberger Edmund Sutton Dirk J Vandewalle HONORARY TRUSTEES David Elliot David Hapgood Pat M Holt Edwin S Munger Richard H Nolte Albert Ravenholt Phillips Talbot Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation Four West Wheelock Street Hanover New Hampshire 03755 U S A JGW SOUTHERN AFRICA James Workman Donors Fellow Institute studying misuse accretion depletion fresh water supplies southern Africa The Coming Hydrocracy Arid Africa Water Runs Out By James G Workman Transcript speech delivered Members Trustees meeting Institute Current World Affairs Cosmos Club December Washington DC Let thank ICWA triumvirate Peter Ellen Brent respectively sound smarter better richer I ICWA Trustees Donors demand three things Fellows demon strate character promise young I thank making exception In Franco American tente Vanessa Paris navigate which I grateful Thanks family taking personally I possible raising ICWA style benign neglect I phrase advisedly favorably Benign caring neglect there They endless bleak articles about Africa water Jamie thought might interest As result those articles I stand today They curious about politics water scarcity specifically What Africans their water This question provokes range responses The succinct truck driver Namibia He heard about research thought nodded I happens We veeerrry suffering And Let worst scenario But first predict something Doomsday warnings Ancient Mariner Water water everywhere drink Malthus As populations expand human consume resources required ourselves starve Ben Franklin writing When worth water Mark Twain provocative Whisky drinkin Water fightin Often coined rainy lands those pithy warnings places sharp serrated Today billion people percent fresh water rivers nearly Scarcity longer thetical possibility It become brutal relentless force daily living hardest So happens modern Africa where already The clippings mailbox painted three tures In article water against nature In March prolonged drought Kenya Sudan border Relief workers rushed water tanker rescue parched villagers When rived large troop usually Vervet monkeys emerged thirst their habitat descended trees attacked piens Try imagine reportedly fierce melee killed eight monkeys injured where primate species fought other cious drops In second article water scarcity against Urban riots broke Cape Town Durban Johannesburg Whites Coloureds Xhosas Zulus erupted violence Crowds burned tires barricades Police fired rubber bullets Innocent But these uprisings nothing apartheid decade The nonracial democratic state appeared fighting multi tribal citizens diminishing supplies water In third article water scarcity against state It unforgettable essay Atlantic Monthly renowned journalist Robert Kaplan titled The Coming Anarchy Kaplan rubbed bleak accurate portrait armed orphans imploding states ruthless superstitious tribalism rising crime rampant epidemics Your average Afri holiday Hell So elevated essay become seminal doctrine foreign policy For first Kaplan indelibly linked warfare nature He wrote Nature become hostile force where democracy problematic scarcity certain Only America violence luxury reserved trust huggers infatuated spotted Elsewhere billions fiercely clawing other simply survive By unraveling nature these women would stress domestic endanger terrorize liberty global security Of diverse threats nature stress stressed Kaplan Water scarcity Of shrivel regions world terrified particular Secular Saharan Africa With society water scarcity meant would break loose within African family between African tribes across borders African nations His prophesy resonated World Bank elons suburban cocktail right night student sessions It united Pentagon officials longhaired ecologists Soon everyone Greenpeace Green Berets preparing future filled water ICWA exception Based proposal Trustees dispatched frontlines driest Africa watch write wonder where these would erupt But ICWA exception important It encourages sensational dispassionate argued essays It When I I discovered current flowing beneath surface equally turbu interesting I found water scarcity rarely tends cause violence anarchy Instead becomes peaceful That catalyst transforms African society thing something terribly exciting albeit still defining itself Today I places where I began profound transformation place I start undeveloped apolitical Central Kalahari Then I developed southern Africa stress points against woman against black against white against nature state against state where water scarcity disturbing status thought would I conclude thoughts about where these emerging waterless orders heading And I managed hopelessly confuse throw floor questions Lost Found In grand ICWA tradition I began focus Africa water through unlikely lenses serendipity stupidity I smuggling Land Rover contraband water dissident aboriginal clans called Bushmen lived hours drive civilization middle Central Kalahari Game Reserve Well I Then break Then I realized I tools Don worry I scolded there limits ICWA benign neglect Like proverbial prisoner facing execution fortnight ordeal concentrated mensely For I stuck there I looked surrounding harsh force nature The Kalahari sands insolently overlap borders seven southern African nations Its shapes region Its aridity defines patterns settlement The Kalahari often described extremely hostile But implies gives To utterly different Its millimeters rains erratically Drought deluge nothing between Even Botswana single river Okavango rushes desert Consider Kalahari store water loose aquifers water boreholes water In these conditions Kalahari flects surrounding subconti South Africa eight percent rainfall which already world average Zimbabwe crops along populated Limpopo River Desert struck Namibia permanent You heard futuris movie Waterworld Call current Waterlessworld Yet despite limits aridity perhaps because diverse indigenous survives there thrives Over millennia plants animals evolved Kalahari including earliest humans Indeed geneticists trace every person including southern African Adam Eve whose DNA closely resembles Bushmen today That night Kalahari while alone I built reflected hours cursing crush idiocy considered options I water If situation worse I could through reserve nearest Bushman lions hungry And Bushmen would still there So during sleepless night under something modern Western began To Bushmen began their romantic stopped being noble savages Instead I pragmatic opportunists offered clues modern society could adapt laughter water dried Some Now Jamie quaint I showers I swimming pools I water Scotch So I Hell matter would Bush given chance So really primitive stone hunter gatherer Of course But called modernists realists entirely point Today escalating water We increase shrinking water With climate change increasingly fickle weather makes evaporate In decades third earth absolute water scarcity In north southern Africa India China Middle East modern future Kalahari Bushmen already today What happen Despite century trying Bush modern begin adopt variations backward vival strategies Man Woman This reversal fortune starts within African house If water scarcity against imagine fluences against woman Africa matriarchy guard their privileged position control title cattle urban surprisingly females control water these depend Females gather economy The African clich gossipy woman walking miles water balanced endure But I posture change rivers dried That gives woman leverage which negotiate future On three fourths African plots decisions females Male tribal leaders authorize government build scrap after explaining their wives To avoid hydrologists insist women attend meetings And Recall Gaugela water carrier I wrote about early newsletter I caught after That tireless single mother currency capital It means Brew cement blocks style start garden extra vegetables But lines negligence entered politics other women nized voting block based securing water She As water wanes woman authority waxes Rich Poor So battle sexes But might water scarcity affect class warfare Few places wider between Africa From Egypt Nile D irrigators Zimbabwe slums Namibia nomadic Himba tribes I already water growing scarce expensive The could swimming beggars outside fence couldn drink That I assumed riots water meters meant Kaplan coming anarchy already In hindsight I began meant something Ironically protests finite water actually creased social stability Scarcity became catalyst level class equality It brought feudal patron order based water ushered interdependence based curately water forever Who wants anything water Years getting water cheap people assume God Does politician wants charge delivery unpaid bills Exchanging cheap water support those officials power Arid forced sides confront reality Voters God water Well She forgot install pipes Belt tightening Governments afford rising costs water Only scarcity decide together What water really worth If water prices people waste Set prices drink puddles sewers So adapted gritty compromise unique South Africa South Africa reserved liters person family first liters month After rates sharply demand accordingly So mansion owner cross subsidizes surrounding shantytowns afford flush toilets European tribe Nonwhite Tribe As water scarcity eases tensions between Africa classes there remains legacy strife between races We picture water colorless colorblind In Africa never Water right based might which based white Water flowed uphill toward ruling In Kwazulu Natal white percent Mhlatuze River Nationwide percent south Africa irrigation water white farmers It cheer apartheid untangle distorted legacy How anyone bring balance racial justice without triggering Mugabe style meltdown Each nation orously experimenting reforms these Free Last These Caprivi Strip women Namibia celebrate their tribal village first clear running water released borehole where locked underground Now share after first liters person delivered terventions typically focus Whether redistribute fairly militantly efforts reach modest social goals Land contentious complicated field Bureaucracies change Market economics favors those money The All often fertile reverts whites Meanwhile profound changes elsewhere Throughout southern Africa empower whites state quietly profoundly nationalized single water above beneath ground Interestingly sweeping water national ization caused ripple outrage It failed trigger disastrous economic effect national izing minerals property Why Unlike these resources water dynamic It placeable And government store WUA Old New First Tsamma Melon Strategy which CKGR Bushmen Dissidents harvested water ground melons camouflaged thorn ringed vault through rainless winter Second Today progressive tribal villages unite harvest rainwater locally rooftops access under those built clean tanks through season concentrate place So whites collect their water found state deeply water hydro bankrupt From Cairo Cape water scarce petitive central bureaucracies could longer respond Kaplan point state collapses anarchy reigns Under experience nearly exciting Instead point state grudgingly gives birth democratic autonomous units These based class efficient productive water In called Water User Associations WUAs Egypt extract Nile South Africa established blacks Botswana Namibia water ground Drop borehole borehole planners bureaucrats surrendered water locals costs responsibilities This transfer authority doesn always equity democracy What black white Reds Greens determine their shared It these local hydrocrats federal bureaucrats determining basis colorblind society everywhere every level Humans Nature Indeed water scarcity appears Africa missing social It binds women black white But about nature Do those thirsty Vervet monkeys foreshadow inter species rivalry Or opposite Africa greatest comparative advantage against world extraordinary wildlife Tourism fastest growing industry subcontinent It happily efficient lucrative water So while Booming cities Maseru Maun Masvingo Maputo demand afford rivers African species depend including primates pachy derms This emphatic interdependence rivers caused third mapping subcontinent During Peter Martin 1950s fellowship apartheid South Africa divided provinces During Sharon Doorasamy 1990s fellowship nonracial democracy partitioned provinces This century competition water stressed precarious balance between federal capital these provinces I expected intra state water secession Instead I found government emerging And might sound familiar In Cosmos Club lobby downstairs hangs portrait John Wesley Powell explorer scientist visionary bureaucrat In argued rationally dividing Ameri autonomous authorities would share river His ideas correct ahead their instead those square states constantly fighting Snake Colorado Colombia Rivers In century later South Africa Zim babwe finally putting concept practice They established agencies based governance South Africa catchment management while Zimbabwe seven catchment councils By these institutions power They regulate allocate rivers aquifers They raise revenue operation management based compulsory licensing water leases When I recall water wealth power power destroy emerging Catchment Management Agency power water I sense radical profound shift involves I sense current powerful elite feels threatened So expect overnight arrival Age Aquarius where peace understanding comes based water No giving water control CMAs deliberate process But irreversible process In water world people choice If transfer authority completed state besides ensure national security Nation Nation Speaking which return those inevitable Water Wars That poetic phrase falls fluid mouth Water source War source death United perfect disharmony A decade experts predicted water would erupt Well perhaps running Hydro pessimists reason archy because oppressive power state If trans national rivers state should fight neighbor control water The proph repeat scenario frequently minently become Gospel One Africa leaders warns Water scarcity reliance shared rivers potential source conflict Well loyal newslett readers awake I searched conflict Two years later I offer breathless prediction Those inevitable water between nations Ain gonna happen Not Africa Not Not Convincing disproving conspiracy theory It difficult But I think necessary For international level water scarcity bringing about delicate portant social transformation You maxim All politics stops border Whatever nation partisan differences people unite against foreign Yet politics stops border rivers They right across indifferent thumbing their State A classic Okavango River Gathering flowing Angola sliding along across Namibia finally soaking sands Botswana lifeblood equally indifferent Kalahari The Okavango nation authority making share finite resource This hypothetical Nor unique It thrust every southern African nation sculpted geology history Newly legitimate cratic African nations rightly We charge Only water chortles It mocks defies their It moves It seeps their grasp It dynamic fugitive sovereign authority Yet States fugitive rivers rivers states As result forces cooperation Lacking global government benign petent United Nations teeth might whether water scarcity leads peace cooperation between states The Makgadikgadi basin showing extent basins Okavango Delta Boteti River drainage basin different tributary rivers Ephemeral episodic rivers shown dashed lines while perennial rivers solid lines Source Map redrawn UNDP GEF History offers clues Since AD states signed water related treaties Of seven water related skirmishes began other issues The Middle East peace treaty began water Or consider geography Of trans boundary rivers rarely poten tially fatal conditions downstream state depends heavily river stream state restrict river there legacy animosity between river sharing states finally downstream state militarily stronger All conditions apply Okavango River Uh Looks trouble But Let consider options One river yields verse potential benefits Angola wants river gation power Namibia wants industry sumption Botswana wants lucrative delta ecotourism These mutually exclusive diametrically opposed least potential discus trade So finally consider virtual water A country wheat invisibly imports water So always costs virtual water fight control Alas rational interest guide warmon Some insecure tribal leaders I avenge insult their father Imagine Emotions better perceptions outweigh reality If Namibia diverts Okavango stress Botswana Not because significantly river Delta because people perceive might So Africa taking chances Its leaders confronted their interdependency Aridity Protocol Shared Rivers reinforce inter national regional context The young Afri states experience negotiating water treaties joint water management bodies other region earth Old Europe Still proof these treaties damming Will Angola Namibia Okavango They Some Will doing provoke angry perhaps violent action downstream Botswana Well formed unique avoid chance It called Okavango River basin organization commis OKACOM Like other commissions OKACOM shrouded mystery behind closed secret talks But under pressure aridity water stress desperate options opened wider range interests Including I attended several meetings OKACOM I three nations represented struggling share river None these conflict They insist other outsiders broth African solidarity They argue They acknowledge disputes Each employed different tactic dealing disputes Botswana delay Namibia blustered Angola negotiated None seemed their nation dominion When tient these questioned legitimacy OKACOM Yet stayed table dragged forward realize Na tional sovereignty Recall Kaplan ultimate apocalypse resource First Water First Wash Moments after gaining access water northern strip Kalahari Namibian mother baptizes future hydrocrat would erode state authority collapse exist order between nations Ten years after prophesy years after fellowship I feeling By God He right And maybe thing Africa existing order brought earth longest running violent scramble every resource slaves diamonds ivory rubber hardwood drugs uranium Indeed those OKACOM meetings I observer Ber Powers hovered Africa carved current jigsaw borders But there emphatic differences This Africans cided Africa Rivers abstract borders dividing continent watery seams uniting The indifferent landscape moderator convener water dictated terms debate The Re scramble Africa Why should water prove utterly different Why today scramble scarce water peacefully dragged together families tribes entire nations I answer certainty Water works mysteri I report I emerging Africa Laws require citizens thirsty weeds Scientists harvest Ministers toilets Dam engineers water river needs Cattle herders breed gemsbok eland Swazi Cane farmers leave water Mozambique shrimp From bucket basin water scarcity orders Each emerg order neatly America brand market democracy rather fitful messy shift water water water Like Kaplan I tempted political earth decades hence Like Kaplan I future water scarcity But unlike I The Coming Hydrocracy I ICWA tireless editor Peter Martin shuffling through dictionaries looking definition ologism No Peter doesn exist Not But describes happening level Single mothers labor unions managers AIDS orphans irrigation farmers diamond miners diplo Africa waiting ICWA devel opment officials should water scarcity They doing Not because because African aridity forcing adapt Bushman I treat water stress ICWA style benign neglect Let people collide other themselves rivers problems impossibili boreholes wells Let endure minor flicts confrontations water organize themselves around shared desperate For southern Africa large shared desper needs reduce single element Eighteen months middle I interviewed Central Kalahari dissident Bush Metsimenong I asked resourceful elder about water needs adapting drought government cutting water He reticent evasive I asked whether enough water family until rainy He wouldn respond I repeated question translator He angry testy frustrated All Bushman responses At I understand Today I think I beginning Despite heroic engineers federal suries powerful states discover regulate water regulate climate clouds rainfall We discover Bushman never forgot We govern water Water governs Thank Return King Molapo leader Seco Ga returned repopulate ancestral Botswana government political terms water immutable INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Fellows their Activities Alexander Brenner June CHINA With B A History Yale Master degree China Studies International Economics Johns Hopkins School Advanced International Studies Alex China focused impact government membership World Trade Organization Chinese citizens institutions regions inside capital Cristina Merrill ROMANIA Born Bucharest Cristina moved Romania Unit States mother father Learning English retaining Romanian majored American History Harvard College there became captain women tennis She received Master degree Journalism New York University worked several U S publications Adweek New York Times spend years Romania watching emerge darkness Ceauscescu regime presumed light membership European Union NATO Andrew Rice May UGANDA A former staff writer New York Observer reporter Philadelphia Inquirer Washington Bureau Newsday Andrew spending years central Africa watching waiting reporting possibility anticipated African Renaissance might begin administration President Yoweri Museveni Andrew B A Government Georgetown minor Theology after having spent semester Cha University Prague where served intern Velvet magazine later traveled experienced wrote about conflict Balkans Matthew Rudolph January INDIA Having completed Cornell Ph D International Relations Matt spending years Phillips Talbot South Asia Fellow looking securitization development Indian economy Matthew Z Wheeler October SOUTHEAST ASIA A former research assistant Rand Corporation Matt spending years looking proposals plans realities regional integration disintegration along Mekong River China Vietnam With B A liberal Sarah Lawrence M A Harvard East Asian studies Blakemore Fellowship Thai language studies Matt examining short conflicts Burma Thailand Laos Cambodia Jill Winder July GERMANY With B A politics Whitman Colle Walla Walla WA Master degree Art Curating Bard College Annandale Hudson NY Jill ICWA Donors Fellow looking Germany through ideas viewpoints contemporary artists Before months intensive study German language Berlin Thomas J Watson Fellow looking communist practice cultural politics transition former Soviet Czech Republic Slovakia Poland Croatia Hungary Latvia Romania Slovenia Ukraine ICWA Letters ISSN published Institute Current World Affairs Inc exempt operating foundation incorporated New York State offices located West Wheelock St Hanover NH 03755 The letters provided charge members ICWA available libraries profes sional researchers subscription Phone E Mail ICWA valley Fax Web Site Executive Director Peter Bird Martin Pr ogram Assistant Brent Jacobson Publications Manager Ellen Kozak Institute Current World Af fairs The Crane Rogers Foundation The information contained lication reproduced writer permission Author Workman James G Title ICWA Letters Sub Saharan Africa ISSN Imprint Institute Current World Affairs Hanover NH Material Type Serial Language English Frequency Monthly Other Regions East Asia South Asia Mideast North Africa Europe Russia The Americas Institute Fellows chosen basis character previous experience promise They young professionals funded spend minimum years carrying designed programs study writing outside United States The Fellows required report their findings experiences field month They write subject formally informally The result unique reporting analysis periodic assessment inter tional events issues