© 2007 Institute of Current World Affairs
The Institute awards long-term fellowships to develop a deep understanding of an issue, country, or region outside the US and to share that understanding with a wider public.
Institute of Current World Affairs - Home Page

Below is a hobbled text version of a PDF document.
In order to read the actual document please click the link below and register if necessary.
(One-time registration is free and very quick.)
Read article

2/1/1999 - Peace Fails, War Resumes Why? by Marc Michaelson

Peace Fails War Resumes Why ADDISABABA Ethiopia February1999 ByMarcMichaelson On February Ethiopia Eritrea resumed fighting territories along their disputed border After seven months stalemate gradually increasing artillery exchanges fierce ground battles broke Badime began spreading other fronts Following familiar pattern governments areblamingeachother instigating latestoutbreak ofwar bothare claiming victories earlyexchanges andbothare decrying their ponents attacksoncivilians InMay1998 theborder dispute eruptedwhena confrontation inBadime sparked Eritrea ofmilitary force Badime Zalanbessaand Aliteina areas Ethiopiaprotestedthisinvasionandsubsequentoccupationofitsterri tories Eritrearespondedthat ithadmerelyre takencontrolofEritrean territo thathadbeenillegallyadministeredbyEthiopia Twomonths ofbattles placed Eritrea firmly control lands claimed Ethiopia insistingonEri treanwithdrawalas apreconditionfornegotiations Bothsides proclaimed their desire peace reserved right force defendingtheirsovereignty shouldpeace Sincethewar firstbegan therehavebeennumerousinternationalefforts tomakepeace TheseinitiativesbeganlastMaywithanattemptedU S Rwanda facilitation process ended February United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan Special Representative Algerian Ambassador Mohammed Sahnoun meeting officials Addis Ababa sumed Inbetween anOrganizationofAfricanUnity OAU initiativeledby Zimbabwe Burkina Faso Djibouti moratorium strikes brokered U S President Bill Clinton shuttle missions former U S Na tionalSecurityAdvisorAnthonyLake LeadersfromKenya Djibouti Uganda Libya Japan Egypt Italy conducted peace consultations warring parties Prominent religious leaders nations twice Europe Members press corps countries Germany Even respected Princeton University Linguist Professor Isaac Ephrem attempted tobridge thegapbetweenthetwo leaders Allofthesepeaceeffortshavefailedtoresolve thisseeminglysimpleborder TheBadimeincidentofMay6th isitselfdisputed Eritreacontendsthatthreehigh anking military officersweremurdered coldbloodwhenthey arrived inBadime discuss recentborder areaproblems Ethiopia claims Eritrean officers tempted cross theborder theirweapons shoot outensuedwhenthey refused leave theirweapons onthe Eritrean theborder Regardless whichstory istrue theeventsofMay6thprogressivelysnowballedintoawar between previouslybrotherly neighbors conflict Howcouldthishappen Howcouldthesetwo brotherlynations amongthepoorestintheworld choose divert hundreds millions dollars building their militaries Howcould destruction their noteworthy development nation building achievements How could sacrifice thousands lives petty border dispute How could Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki Ethiopian Prime Minister MelesZenawi previouslyattheforefrontofthenew Af ricanRenaissance leadtheirpeoplesbackdownthepath ofviolenceand destruction Inshort howdidpeacefailandwhydidwarresume FAILUREOFTHEPEACEPROCESS Theseeds offailureweresownintheveryfirstpeace initiative U S Rwanda facilitation process The ledbyU S Assistant Secretary State African Affairs Susan Rice Rwandan Vice President Paul Kagame Following Eritrea May military actions Ethiopia protested loudly mentlythatithadbeeninvaded itssovereigntyviolated Eritrea demonstrated typical pattern silence confidence learned during nation struggle independence The Eritreans insisted theywereontheirownterritory andoffered little ditionalinformation sayingessentially thetruthwill eventually Eritrea initial ctance voice caseturnedouttobea diremistake TheU S Rwanda produced sided peace quiring Eritrea swithdrawalandareturnto status Theproposal called return ofEthiopian administration including militia police interim arrangement after which border wouldbedemarcatedbya thirdparty Thispeacepro posal emboldened Ethiopia invalidated Eritrea claims Unsurprisingly Ethiopia accepted U S Rwandaproposal Eritrea rejected Themajorflaw inthepeaceprocesscamenotdur after U S Rwanda proposal public To strengthen initiative U S flexed politicalmuscle lobbied theOAU UNand Euro peanCommunity EC toexpress theirsupport This hadtwoserious implications First theEritreanswere backed corner Theywere aloneandmisunder stood Once again world siding their opponent during liberation struggle whenneitherCold Warpatronsupportedtheircause Thesecond problemwiththeU S Rwandainitia tivewasthat itenabled Ethiopiangovernmenttobe comecemented position Bymakingstatus precondition negotiations further action U S Rwanda Ethiopia upper Over months followed Ethiopia never wavered position Ethiopianauthoritiesrefusedtonegotiateortalk theiradversariesunlessEritreawithdrewuncondition Asa result thepeaceprocess stalled Successive tiatives mostprominentlybytheOAUandAnthony Lake failedtobreakthedeadlock Infact theseinitia tivesmerelyrehashedandrepackaged S Rwanda Theycontainednosubstantivechangesoradditions nonewideas Thatturned deathknell peace process U S Rwanda precludednewideas creative alternativesfrommaking theirway table andleftbothgovernmentsintheir initialpositions The peace process process Rather ithasbeenstuck spinninginplace offeringupa single proposal Eritrea repeatedly fusedand other Ethiopia repeatedly accepted From Ethiopian perspective failure variouspeaceinitiativeshasbeenduetotheinternational community slackofresolve Hadsufficientpressurebeen exerted Ethiopia believes Eritrea would SAUDI SUDAN ERITREA AsmaraO AliteinaArea ETHIOPIA Djibouti AddisAbabaO 150krr Someobserversbelievethisiconflict isnotaboutbordersat butratherareflectionofdeterioratingeconomicrelations internalpoliticalfactorsandexternalconspiracies believeanumberoffactorsripenedtheenvironmentforconflict mainta thatthecurrentdispute stillfundamentallyaborderproblem Forfurtheranalysisofthecausesofthisconflict MM TheEthiopianEritrenBorderConflict Part2mExplanationsICWALetters November1998 Formoreinformationontheactualeventsthattookplaceduringthe firstseveralmonthsoftheborderconflict andarecapof peace process seemyearlier piece The Eritrean EthiopianBorder Conflict Part lmEvents ICWALetters October MM littlechoicebuttoaccepttheproposals Openlyfrustrated onehigh rankingTigrayPeople sLiberationFront TPLF leadercomplainedoftheinternationalcommunity placency Wehavebeeninvaded andyettheworldhas failedtoupholdtheprinciplesandnormsofinternational Theyhave onlyused percent tools their disposal convince Eritreans They other percent Herehewasreferring sanctions diplomatic pressure failed theuseofforce togettheEritreans toaccede Hisfrustra tionisunderstandable butforseveralreasons hisexpec tationswereunrealistic The harsh reality United States Eu ropedon tcareenoughaboutEthiopiaandEritrea sanctions engage military action Repeatedly Decal T shirtfor Eritrea Expo I heard local officials citizens discuss roles S N ifClintonandAnnanwerediscuss Ethio Eritrean conflict their advisers every morning breakfast The Abyssinian worldview places Ethiopia center universe scarcely fathom there other places considered strategically important other crises considered urgent their The TPLF official quoted above equated Eritrean invasion Iraq ofKuwait Sad U S response Gulf wasnotaboutupholdingprinciples itwasaboutoil The merefactthatClintonsentseniordiplomatAnthonyLake theregionfourtimeswasimpressiveandshowedreal concern morethanmanymight expect The TPLF official believed enough Eritrea would relent This assumption fails Eritrean government stubbornness resolve Eritreans aresuspicious ofoutsidersandareun deterredbythefactthat yetagain theinternationalcom Institute Current World Affairs munityhasturned itsbackonthem Themoretheworld tries force Eritrea something likely willbetodo WhenEritreansbelieveinacause ingwills topthemfrompursuing ittothebitterend Another Ethiopia expectations sumes position entirely right Eritrea wholly wrong Justice Ethiopia claims hundred percent onits This claimis partially butonlypartially WhileEritreadidtakenumerousEthiopian administered territoriesbyforce isnotthewhole story Ethiopia thatOAUandUNprincipleswere violatedwhen Eritreatookthese lands However Ethiopiahas lated OAU charter For example OAU charter states colonialborders inviolable According colonialborders Ethiopia 1997mapofTigrayswallows large tracts Eritrean Ethiopia wrongfully administering tionsofEritreasinceindependencein1993 Thecase isthusnotso clear bothsides valid legal moral claims Referencesto principles canbe andhave disputants thereby served block progress peacefront Itwouldbebettertodealwith thefactsontheground logic common sense creative problem solving skills resolve thorny issue rather sticking positions claiming vering adherence international ciples Ethiopia rigidity counter productive should cloud critical point Eritrea forcible occupation ofEthiopian administered territoriesmust condoned While Eritrea legitimate claims these territories themannerinwhichithas gainedcontrolofthem isunacceptable AsEthiopiahas correctlypointed suchmilitaryescapades gerousprecedent If itwishtoobtainlegalpossessionof these lands Eritrea relent temporarily To legally territory according colonial treaties should Eritrean demonstrate respect international norms The border dispute resolved mittedforadjudicationandborderdemarcationbyathird party And place Eritrea draws Eritrea swallow pride takeone stepbackwardinorder takeone ortwo steps forward Eritrean withdrawal absolute necessity Eritrean authorities openly stated willingness pullback The major sticking pointand Achilles thepeace process surrounds issue ofinterimadmin istration Whowillcontrolthedisputed territoriesdur sixmonthsitwill N cartographic oranotheracceptablearbitrator todeterminelegalown administration Thisiswherecreativityandcompromise ership Eritreawantsathirdpartytoadministerthebor aremostcritical Untilnow noneofthemediatorsseem derareas EthiopiainsistsonthereturnofEthiopian tohavebeenabletobridgethisseeminglyminorgap MM Perhapsmostsimply S RwandaandOAUini tiativeshave failedbecause anypeace proposalmustbe acceptabletobothparties Peaceisatwowaystreet When onedisputantagreesandtheother disagrees newroutes mustbe explored Inanypeace process disputants willneedtocompromise Nevertomyknowledgehasa peacebeen forgedby acceding everything other sticking positions getting demands Bypresentingthesameproposaloverandover andover theinternationalcommunityhasfoolishlyspun itswheels When discussing problem TPLF Iofferedthefollowinganalogy Ifyouare aroom locked butyou absolutelymustget whatdoyou There several options Youcan thewindows climb through check ceiling floor hidden escape route stand thedoor andcontinuouslyturntheknobtosee ifitwill That happened The mediators keptEthiopiaandEritrea standing adoorknob thathasbeen andwill lihoodremain jammed Thereisanotheroption You always force break Unfortunately might break bones process still there antee success Sadly option parties currently chosen pursue Ethio trying military force regain terri tories itlostin1998 Thisisamistake butseemed insomewaysinevitable Nevercana solutionto thisborderdisputebeobtainedonthebattlefield Onlythroughnegotiationsanddemarcationcan theproblembe solved Ethiopiamaytakesome territoriesandlose others Themomentummay shift forth Thousands troops hundreds civilians warthat ultimately leadback tosomeform peace process One onlyhope international community bring innovative approaches Remnants ofcluster bombs dropped Eritrean planes onAyder table parties ready something until refused compromise STEADILYINCREASINGWARMOMENTUM For several reasons momentum provenmorepotentthanthemomentumforpeace While bothpartieswould toblameinternationalinaction responsibility firstandforemostwiththeEthiopian andEritreangovernments Historywilljudgethemmost harshly This Bill Clinton Kofi Annan Neither their constituencies Institute Current World Affairs feelthedeeppainanddestructionwroughtbythis sense violence It thepeople ofEritreaandEthiopiawho willbear themostsevereburden SinceMay1998 anumberofdisturbingtrendshave placedthesetwocountriesfirmlyontheroadtowar They relentlesslybeaten thewar drums agitated public opinion vastly expanded their military capacities Through theirownself destructive policies actions propaganda Ethiopian Eritrean governments havefueled thewarfire Asa result theywillbothlikely getburned First andperhapsmostdamaging havebeenthepro pagandacampaigns Asinmany conflicts variousme newspapers radio television manipulatedbybothgovernmentstodemonizethe Most propaganda focused posing government leader The Ethiopianpress comparedEritreanPresident Isaias toMussoliniand scribed mentally unstable psychotic Thiscampaignhasbeencarried effectively thatevenmanyexpatriateshave askedmeif In Eritrea Ethiopian President Meles berated anevil expansionistwhoseexpulsion ofEritreannation ethnic cleansing akinto Hitler extermination Primary School Mekelle Ethiopia Jews This exaggeration hyperbole outra geous itwouldbecomical ifpeopledidn tbelieve Butmanydo snotfunny The former liberation movements Eritrean People sLiberationFront EPLF andtheTigrayPeople Liberation Front TPLF themselves Shabiya Woyane respectively Thesenamesareusedwithpride describe valiantheroeswholiberated theirpeople oppressive former Ethiopian dictator MM MengistuHaileMariam During current conflict twotermshavetakennewmeaningintheopposingcoun tries Shabiya derided Ethiopian press perceived Ethiopians Asmara arrogant pansionist authoritarian ruling clique In Eritrea Woyane considered cruel minority government sucking lifeblood Ethiopia while trying border preparation Tigrayan secession The propaganda against Woyane Eritrean mediaandcontemptfor Shabiya intheEthiopianpress greatly affectedpublic opinion Throughrepetition ofhorrificimageryanddehumanizingdescriptions ofanimosityand distrusthave proliferated For ample after EritreabombedtheAyderPrimarySchool inMekelle killing51 civilians Ethiopiashowedgraphic pictures ofthevictimsontelevisionalmostdailyformore thanfourmonths Whilethis airattackwasinexcusable anddeservedcondemnation therepetitivevisualsserved purpose foment anger desire revenge against Shabiya Eritrea coverage deportation issue ports oftheEritreanswhohavediedi ndetentioninEthio piahavebeensimilarlyrepeatedadnauseam Theseabuses havebeenrehashedoverandovertoemphasizetheruth vengeful nature Ethiopia Woyane Suchpropagandahassteadilyincreasedthepressure forwar Inbothcountries theauthoritieshavesubtly sometimes overtly reinforcedtheviewthattheonlydu rable solution problem destruction Woyane Shabiya installation reasonable rationalandhumanegovernmentinthecoun trynext Thevitriol innuendoand brash posturingbyboth ernments lowed sinker bythepeoples ofbothnations Ethiopians Eritreans Diaspora responded their ernments propaganda paigns unquestioning dedication unwavering enthusiasm Throughout Af people uncritically government controlled media assuming infor mationconveyed print mustibe Throughout months propaganda pervasive repeti expatriate largely bought official their governments Thissuccessfulpropagandizinghaslimitedthescope discussionamongboth locals foreigners Dissent allbutabsent andevenshould itexistbelowthesur rarely expressed openly reprisals This particularly Eritrea where media strictly controlled government censored In Ethiopia significantlymoreopen itsfreepress regularly criticized government However since current conflict started Ethiopia normally feisty independentmedia havehopped national istbandwagon Within Ethiopia Eritrea private citizen peace initiatives campaigns advocacyandactivism beenvirtually nonexistent Thismaybe result aforementioned propaganda general complacency There demonstrations petitions other citizen organizing Therehavebeennopopularat tempts exertpressureon eithergovernmenttobe ciliatory orcompromiseinthe interest ofpeace Feelings ofnational pride people ofboth triesarewar weary onlysevenyearsagotheyfinished fighting liberation struggle Theywerejust becomingaccustomedtopeacetimeliving andweresuc cessftdlyrebuildingtheirwar tatteredcommunities Con sidering background current public silence peculiar particularly diplomat calls stupidestwarin Africa While Ethiopians Eritreans victims their government advised adventures munities living working inEritreaandEthiopiahave EthiopianTVcrewfilmingatamilitarycampinAraAro Tigray Institute Current World Affairs notwithstanding event turned little another propaganda stunt aimed spurring Asmara expatriates action against barbarous regime south Itwasarehashofolddiatribes Ironi cally hanging podium puter printed reading simply peace mentioned during entirethree hourprogram Myeyeswerecon tinuouslydrawnto thisvisualmagnet Peace The abuses exposed evening encapsu lated thatoneword unwittinglyplastered directly beneath speaker I wished Citizens Peace Eritrea politi space courage promote sadly ignored In Ethiopia tomyknowledge therehave citizens groups formed Civilian victims Lemlem Aregawi house south ofZalanbessa destroyed during shelling June little momentum Democracy freedom comewithresponsibilities peoplemustspeak press their political interestsandinfluence their govern mentstodowhatthepeoplewant Whileneitherofthese nations historical democratic tradition thetwoliberationmovements theEPLFandTPLF tiallysoughttoempowerthepeople Nowthattheyhold strings power their predecessors demandingunquestioned loyalty InEritrea theinaptlynamed CitizensforPeacein Eritrea CPE iscomposedofahandfulofwell educated concerned citizens They together July marily concerned issue deportations Eritreans forcefullyexpelledfromEthiopia RetiredPro fessor Emeritus Asmarom Legesse colleagues haveconducted detailed studies expose crueland illegalnature ofthedeportations IattendedaCPE sored publicity event Asmara December where Professor Asmarom unveiled second study The Uprooted II One deportee sonal account experience other speakers sentedpapersonwomenandchildrendeporteesandthe media Professor Asmarom rigorous research peace agenda Even meetings between Eritrean Ethiopian religious leaders NorwayandGermany failedtobreakthepatternofpar tisanship posturing In other conflicts throughout Africaandaroundtheworld bishops priests Ima msand rabbis their religious offices boldly scendpartisanshipandreachouttothe other InEthio Eritrea nationalist sentiments powerful these religious leaders proven unable above Both countries invested massive amounts manpowerandmoneyinmilitarybuildups andin doing created additional momentum Both governments mobilized their populations defend their sovereignty Ethiopia whose largely demobilized civil hasrecruitedyoungmenfrom allethnicgroupsandre gions ofthecountry Thesenewrecruitsweregivenrapid training andnowupto300 000troopsaredeployedalong Ethiopian oftheborder Since independence Eritrea insisted months mandatory military traing Eritrean youthattheSawanationalmilitarytrainingcamp Eritrea already maintained degree military Public demonstrations considered unacceptablemechanism political expression inboth Eritreaand Ethiopia Two recentexamplescome At December Citizens Peace Eritrea sponsored event eager participant recommended streets ofAsmaratodraw attention plight Eritrean deportees comingfrom Ethiopia The organizers Stepped suggestion uncomfortably saying theywould consider Likewise February inAddis Ababa ashgw ofsupport Ethiopian troops fighting inBadimewasplanned At4 clock afternoon allmotoristsweretoturnontheirheadlights anddemonstratorsweretogatherinMeskelSquare Atthelast moment demonstrationwscanceled police motorists turnontheir lights Both theseproposed public demonstrationswere favor currentgovernment policy However public political action isaslipperyslope Todaypeoplemightprotestinfavorofthegovernment Tomorrow iftheyaredissatisfied might streets opposition government Hence EritreanandEthiopi authoritieswouldprefernot openthe Pandora Box political activism MM readiness andquicklymobilizedbothold liberation fightersandnewSawa gradu protect their territorial claims Badime along border Eritrea estimated troops about percent country total population mobilizedonitsborder The opporttmity costofkeepingsuchmassive numbers engaged considerable mentiontheexpenseofkeepingthemfed clothedand outfitted During fighting between July January triesspentmassiveamountsofmoneyon militaryequipment Ethiopiahasbought eight Sukhoi SU fighter planes Mig helicopters Russia specifiednumberoftanksfromBulgaria ammunition China communi cationsequipmentfromFrance Thelast SacksoffoodaidawaitingdistributiontodisplacedpeopleinAdigrat Ethiopia shipment fighter planes alone million Eritrea spent similaram ountsofmoney mostrecentlyontheprocure Mig interceptors Eritrea purchasedBM rocketlaunchersfromBulgaria attack helicopters Italy other military supplies Romania which interdicted Bel Qatarand Libya reported bankrolled purchases And since neither Ethiopia Eritreahas pilots trained flysuchhigh aircraftor technicians servicethem technicalcrewsfromRussia UkraineandLatviahavebeencontracted The international nature trade makes these truly international affairs This merely squabbling brothers wrestling alone closed It death match Coli cheering crowds haphazardly throwing mannerofweaponstothecompetitors Insuchcases tradictions abound Russia example injected amounts conflict fightingbroke feeblyurged disputants cease For poorest countries world diversion scarce resources fancy fighter planes rockets bombs beyond unfortunate It downright shameful Both countries remain heavily pendent external development assistance loans grants remittances Diaspora Andneither countryhasdevelopedthecapacitytofeeditsownpeople without consistent infusions Ethiopian Eritreansquandering offundsonexotic fighterplanes akintoapauperbuyingcaviarandfiletmignonwithfood stamps difference being steakprobablywon tkillyou These investments inweaponsandmanpowerhave createdacertainuncontrollablemomentum Afterrepeat edlypublicizing therighteousness ofyourcauseandthe evilways ofyour neighbor spending tremen dousamountsofmoneyonweaponsandharnessingyour population energy effort protect nation becomes nearly impossible brakes around compromise At point compromise perceivedasasi gnofweakness andweakness ispoliti callyuntenable Nationalpriderunshighinbothnations andthus givingin orlosingface isnotaviableoption eithergovernment The stubbornness ofbothleaders understandable althoughnot particularly rableorproductive Theirownmassivepropagandacam paigns effectively cemented their positions andbackedthemboth corners WhenfightingresumedinFebruary thepropaganda machines switched higher Until Ethiopians carefully poised themselves moralhigh ground In theirview theyhadbeen ofaggression butexercised restraintandacommit peaceful resolution With internal pressure mountingandpatiencewearingthin theEthiopiangov ernmentdecided topursue military option Theyare nowattemptingtoregaintheir territorybyforce Eritrean Muchof information contained thisparagraphwas drawnfrom aBBCAnalysis article internet Arms Pour BorderWar Patrick Gilkes February Some numbers ofplanes varyfrom source source should beconsideredroughestimates Also thisparagraphdiscussedonlynewpurchases Bothcountries stillhavesignificant numbersofMig 21andMig 23fightersaswellashundredsoftanksandlargeamountsofammunitioninheritedor leftover liberation struggle thatended Institute Current World Affairs authorities havingbeenburnedbytheirinitialsilence tinuedhostility Conversely shouldlargenumbersofci recognize power information The vilians victimized antagonisms anger might Eritreangovernmenthasgivenjournaliststimelyaccess deepen makingitevenmoredifficulttorestorenormal tothefrontlines andisnowspeakingoutmoreloudly itytothistroubledarea openly before These efforts appear bearingfruit mostobserversseemtoagreethatEthio Asthefightingresumed bothcountriesdisplayed piahasinitiatedthefightingthistimearound characteristicbravadoandconfidenceintheirultimate victory They spent millions dollars WHATNEXT PROSPECTSFOREVENTUAL sandsofhourstoconvincethemselvesoftheiroverpow PEACE eringstrength andtheirbrothers nowenemies pitiful weaknesses However asthecorpsespileup villagesare Afterthiscurrentroundoffightingexpires perhaps burnedandrecentlyrebuiltinfrastructuresareravaged inamonth ayearormore theatmospheremightbemore thisoptimismmayfade I forone certainlyhopeso Only conduciveforcompromiseandpeace building However thenwillthecombatantsputdowntheirguns facethe thatisonlyspeculation Hopesare thetwosideswill dauntingchallengesofmakingpeace andbeginrestor tireofkillingeachother andrecognizethefutilityofcon ingsanitytotheirrelationswitheachother UPDATE March24 This articlewaswrittenand submitted inmid February Since therehavebeen anumber unexpected developments On February Ethiopia launched Operation Sunset massive offensive regain control Badime Three later Ethiopian forces successfully broke through Eritrean defense lines recapture Badime forced Eritrean troops retreat trench positions Therehavebeennoindependentconfirmationsofcasualtyreports butthe totalnumberof isestimatedtototalinthetensofthousands Shouldthesefiguresprovecorrect morelivesmay sacrificed these vicious battles during entire thirty liberation struggle While rapid success Ethiopian offensive unexpected startling Eritrean acceptance OAU peace February After months obstinacy changing circumstances defeatinBadime causedtheEritreanleadershiptoaccede ThisEritreanabout mayhavebeena strategicmaneuver asone ofthe coreelements oftheOAUplanrequired Eritrean withdrawal Badime environs Having already withdrawn voluntarily under heavyattack itbecametacticallyprudentforEritreatoaccepttheOAUproposal These events shifted theballbackinto Ethiopia court WouldEthiopia continue militaryopera tionsandtry toregain control ofthe otherEritrean occupied territories orhaltthe offensiveandsubmit thedisputetotheOAU originallyagreed OnMarch14 thisquestionwasansweredwhenEthio forces attacked Eritreanpositions ontheTsorona front Followingtwo ofheavyfightingnearTsorona Eritreangovernmentbroughtjournalists their successful defense Reporterssawhundreds ofcorpseslying along meterstretch scene Ethiopian government asserted staged publicity stunt Since fighting sumed Tsorona Zalanbessa Badime fronts Shambuco village I visited August tointerviewdeportedfarmers Duringthe latestbattlestherehasbeenanear totalnewsblack outonboth sides Eritrea sacceptance oftheOAUpeaceplanhasalreadybecomeanopportunity Theinterna tionalcommunityhasfailedtosecurea cease andprovenunableto reconcile Eritrea sandEthiopia varyinginterpretations oftheOAUframework TheOAU slegitimacyinhandling thisdisputecame intofurtherquestiononMarch22ndatt startofthe69thRegularSessionoftheMinisterialCouncil Eritrea sAmbassador Ethiopiaand delegate theOAU Mr GirmaAsmerom declared persona nongrata expelled fromEthiopiaonFebruary Since Eritreahashadno formal repre sentation OAU The Ministerial Council consideration Ethio Eritrean conflict farce ofthe concernedparties Eritrea onlyAfricancountrynotrepresented Likewise Operation Sunset wasnamedafter acommentby President Isaias Heproclaimed thewithdrawal Eritrean forces fromBadimewas likely sunnot rising MM venue ofthe meeting OAUheadquarters inAddisAbaba canhardlybe considered neutral Prognostication Ihaverecentlylearned isadangerousbusiness I mreluctanttopredictthe direction inwhichthewinds conflict nextblow At themoment fighting continues Thedanger ofshort termbattle victories thattheyboost confidence emboldenpublic opinion thereby encourage ursuit total military victory Thejubilantmoments oftempo triumph Badime Tsorona overshadowed staggeringhumanlosses sides sustained during thepast sixweeks offighting In comingweeks months several questions willbe answered Will thebloodshed tinue orwillrevived diplomatic efforts place thetwoparties firmlyonthepathtoward anegotiated settlement Will internationalcommunitysomehowsucceed inconvincingEthiopiaandEritrea accepta cease Canthe details oftheOAUpeaceframeworkbe clarified satisfaction bothparties Iffighting continues willonepartybe obtaina totalvictory onthebattlefield inflictenoughdamage onthe enemy force surrender Wewillhave towaitand In meantime senseless carnage ofAfrica stupidestwar continues earnest AHistoryofEthiopia Abraham Kinfe Addis Ababa Addis Pharmaceutical Factory Adi Murug Bada Adigrat Adua Aeroflot Afar African Renaissance Afwerki Isaias Agew dependency Aideed Mohamed Farah Air Tajikistan Al lttihad ALF Afar Liberation Front Alga Aliteina Aliteina Ambesete Geleba Andemichael Wereda Annan Kofi Arab producing countries Arap Moi Daniel Ark Covenant Asmara Asmara airport Asmara airport bombing Asmerom Girma Assab Assab economy Assab Oil Refinery Assab Port Assab Salt Works Aweke Aster Axumite empire Ayder Primary School B Bada SeealsoAdi Murug Badime Bagoweini Bahir Dar Gojjam Region barefoot doctors Barentu Barre Mohamed Siad Belgium Berbera blood price BM rocket launchers Bole airport Borama Britain British Council library Bulgaria Burao Burie Burkina Faso C casualties battle casualty reports China Citizens Peace Eritrea CPE Clinton Bill coffee coffee ceremony colonial COMESA Economic Community East Southern African States communications conspiracy theories Constitution corruption counterfeit currency detector culture currency customary I Dallol Airlines Debre Zeyit Decamhare Dembe Jefecke village Denakil Desert deportation Derg dictatorship Entries refertoICWALetters MM andpage withLetternumbergiven beforeeachpageentry Institute Current World Affairs Derg government Derg Dhu Nwas diplomat recognition Director General Marine Department Ministry Transportation Communi cation Djibouti Dubai EC European Community economic development economy Egal Mohamed Ibrahim Egypt Ephrem Isaac Ephrem Sebhat EPLF Eritrean People Liberation Front EPRDF Ethiopian People Revo lutionary Democratic Front Erde Mattios Eritrea Eritrea Profile Eritrean Defense Force Eritrean Pride Eritrean Public Health Program Eritrean women Eritrean Women Association Eritrean Youth Association ERREC Eritrean Relief Refu Commission Ethiopia Ethiopia Eritrea border conflict Ethiopian Airlines Ethiopian Enterprise Petroleum Ethiopian mobilization Ethiopian Orthodox Church Ethiopian Telecommunications Authority ethnic cleansing ethnic groups Amhara Oromo Expo Fatzi Fessehai Habteab Yemeni style Follina France Freemen Montana Gash Barka Region Ghebray Tekeste Ghebretnsae Woldemichael Gondar Province Gouled Aptidon Hassan Grassroots International Greater Hanish Greater Tigray green Guinea Bissau guurti elders conferences Guurti House Elders H Habtekere Gebrenguse Hanish Islands Hargeisa Heret village hydroelectric power ICRC International Committee Red Cross injera bread mented batter Inter Governmental Authority Development IGAD intermarriage International Committee Red Cross ICRC International Court Justice It alian colonization Italy J Janmeda Japan Kagame Paul Kenya Khartoum kickbacks King Caleb King Ezana kitfo ground spiced butter Kombolcha I labor supply Lake Anthony lakes Bishoftu Latvia Legesse Asmarom Libya livestock machiato espresso Mahdi All Marcus Harold Mariam Mengistu Haile Massawa media Mehare Zait Mekelle Mekonnen Yigzaw Menelik Mengisteab Dawit Mereb River Mig helicopters Mig interceptors Ministry Defense Ministry Information Mitchell Leslie Mogadishu Mombasa Mubarak Hosni Mulki Museveni Yoweri N nakfa nepotism NGOs governmental organizations Nigeria Nile R O OAU Organization African Unity OAU initiative OAU peace Ogaden Region Ogaden War OLF Oromo Liberation Front Entries refertoICWALetters MM andpage withLetternumbergiven beforeeachpageentry MM Operation Restore Hope Operation Sunset P PACT Petros Col Bezabieh PFDJ People Front Democ Justice pickpockets police Djibouti press propaganda Qaddafi Muammar Qatar R Ras Mikhael Seul Red Sea Red Sea Airline refugee repatriation religion Republic Somaliland Resolution Rice Susan Rift Valley Fever Robinson Mary Romania Rubattino Shipping Company Russia Rwanda S Sahnoun Mohammed Sawa national military training Selassie Haile Setit Shabiya Shambuco Sheba Shewa traditional Somali congress Sierra Leone Sifreye Genet Solomon Solomonic Dynasty Somali clans Abgal Dulbahante Gadabursi HabrAwal Habr Ja HabrYonis Hawiye Isaaq Somali National Movement SNM Somali oratory Somali Salvation Democratic Front SSDF Somalia Somaliland Somaliland Republic constitution elections government history independence NGO private sector Protectorate secession Sudan Sukhoi SU fighter planes T tabot barley honey telecommunications Tesfaye Mikael Worku Tesfazion Afeworki sauteed Tigray Province Tigrayan nationalism Tigrinya Timket Ethiopian Orthodox Church celebration Togdheer Region T PLF Tigray People Liberation Front tradition transportation Tsorona Tuur Abdirahman U U S Embassy travel warning U S Marines U S Rwanda facilitation process U S Rwanda initiative U S Rwanda Peace Plan U S U N interventions Uganda Ukraine UN Cartographic Office UN Cartographic Unit UN Commissioner Human Rights See Robinson Mary UNICEF United Nations United NationsOCHA Office Coordination Humanitar Assistance United Nations Security Council United Nations Task Force UNITAF United Somali Congress USC United States USAID OFDA Office Foreign Disaster Assistance Warsama Abdi Ibrahim Welo Province Western Somali Liberation Front WSLF White Horse Whiskey Woyane Y Yemen Yirga triangle Yo hannes IV Z Zagwe dynasty Zaire Congo Zalanbessa Zenawi Meles Zimbabwe Institute Current World Affairs MM NOTES Institute Current World Affairs Institute ofCurrentWorldAffairs THECRANE ROGERSFOUNDATION FourWestWheelock Street Hanover NewHampshire 03755USA