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12/1/2002 - Thailand and Terrorism After Bali by Matthew Z. Wheeler

ICWA LETTERS Since Institute Current World Affairs Crane Rogers Foundation provided fellowships enable outstanding young professionals outside United States write about international areas issues An exempt operating foundation endowed Charles R Crane Institute supported contributions minded individuals foundations TRUSTEES Bryn Barnard Joseph Battat Mary Lynne Bird Steven Butler William F Foote Kitty Hempstone Pramila Jayapal Peter Bird Martin Ann Mische Dasa Obereigner Paul A Rahe Chandler Rosenberger Katherine Sreedhar Edmund Sutton Dirk J Vandewalle HONORARY TRUSTEES David Elliot David Hapgood Pat M Holt Edwin S Munger Richard H Nolte Albert Ravenholt Phillips Talbot Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation Four West Wheelock Street Hanover New Hampshire 03755 U S A MZW SOUTHEAST ASIA Matthew Wheeler recently RAND Corporation curity terrorism researcher studying relations among between nations along Mekong River Thailand Terrorism After Bali By Matthew Z Wheeler DECEMBER BANGKOK Thailand The bombings killed people In donesian island Bali October short hiatus thinking about terrorism Since leaving RAND September I enjoyed break daily political violence Had Bali attack occurred month would report incident RAND terror database noting nature target number killed injured weapons tactics attack For I filed reports terrorist incidents Southeast Asia I anticipated ICWA fellowship would bring departure regular engagement terrorism The Bali bombings delayed departure News attack I still United States after Ruang I visited ICWA office Hanover I processed coffee detachment which I conditioned previous The number casualties remarkable Rarely terrorist bombing people Recent bombings Indonesia generally small scale often causing nothing property damage The lethality Bali attack indicated degree planning competence About Author With B A Sarah Lawrence College Matt graduate Southeast Asian Studies Vietnamese language Uni versity Hawaii Vietnam National Uni versity Hanoi Foreign Languages Col He received Master Asian Regional Studies Harvard prepared become Mekong River fellow intensive Thai language study under Thomas Blakemore Fellowship Bangkok Now based there newly married Rueangsasithon Sangwarosakun Ruang short Matt intends examine process regional integration Southeast Asia mainland known Greater Mekong Subregion composed Myanmar Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam China Yunnan Province As topic Regional Development flexible circum scribed It offers access aspects change region allows answer succinctly question What studying My intended modus operandi possible about issues problems I examining speak knowledgeable people myself effects change levels report I bombers Now I thought Jakarta action against local terror networks For Ruang prompted rather different thoughts Some premonition caused friend Budsagorn moved Bangkok Singapore months before English boyfriend Tim Ruang reached Budsagorn world found crying inconsolable Tim Bali Singapore Cricket Club rugby minute stitute He called Budsagorn hours before attack saying heading teammates She heard hours since bombing Though Tim listed missing Budsagorn certain would never again We called several times offering encouragement waning sense Finally could offer condolences Budsagorn learned survivors Tim teammates drinking Paddy Bar Kuta beach It later revealed suicide bomber detonated Paddy Bar prior truck explosion destroyed Sari Club where fatalities occurred Tim Paddy before suicide attack standing street truck exploded Seven Tim teammates killed attacks Tim death worked unexpected I I personal grief Yet I sense immediate stupefy I quite account In I blocks World Trade Center Qaeda first attacked truck I Pentagon September window office building Now killed acquain tance other world Perhaps I feeling cumulative effect Maybe realization these events becoming routine Above though I sorry Budsagorn She MZW loved Tim hoped marry Now widow every except might Bali Fallout Since Bali attack stories about corruption Thailand tennis compete space newspapers reports foreign travel advisories Thailand tourist environs Phuket Pattaya appear present ractive targets terrorists killing Westerners By October Australia Canada Denmark Germany Japan Norway Portugal Sweden UK warned their citizens height possibility terrorist attacks Thailand The U S State Department issued travel advisory South Asia After Bali Thailand began tract attention wrong reasons The Thai government public sponse discount warnings downplay terrorist threat Thai The message government unambiguous there international terrorists Kingdom Reacting foreign travel advisories issued Bali bombings Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra declared I afraid shouldn either Trust The Thai Foreign Minister meanwhile complained Foreign governments travel advisories first information receive exclusive intelligence which causing panic among people The takes Thailand government anxious reassure tourists investors public Thailand More million tourists visited Thailand Accord Economist Intelligence Unit brought nearly billion dollars US foreign exchange receipts accounting percent Thailand gross domestic product As begins significant decline tourist arrivals could serious consequences current government Thai economy Thailand alone decry warnings terrorist threat Southeast Asia Other countries particularly Indonesia Malaysia Philippines problems declining tourism revenue investor confidence Early November Eighth Summit Associa Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN Phnom Penh heads state issued Declaration Terror aimed projecting strong stance against terro One provision declaration pleads ternational community avoid indiscriminately advising their citizens refrain visiting other dealing countries absence estab lished evidence substantiate rumors possible rorist attacks measures could achieve objectives terrorists The ASEAN governments complained double standards noting Qaeda U S Europe The November edition Asian Wall Street Jour Economist Intelligence Unit Indonesia Assault Bali October available aigonline content 13674 ASEAN includes Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Burma Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Southeast Asian nations except East Timor INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS AWSJ sabotaged Thai government efforts Hambali presided meeting Arab South portray Kingdom destination terror Asian militants southern Thailand which An article Jay Solomon James Hookway cision taken attack targets night ported Bali attack instigated Janu clubs hotels restaurants This information meeting terrorist group Jemaah Islamiah included FBI interrogation report Mohammed southern Thailand Jemaah Islamiyah JI considered Mansour Jabarah Kuwaiti Canadian Southeast Asian affiliate Qaeda The group tended meeting subsequently extradited light December after Singaporean police U S after arrest Oman arrested members disrupting Western embassies U S military targets Singapore The report Bali hatched The January meeting Thailand appears Thailand induced apoplexy governmen already effort JI regroup Citing Asia based intelligence embattled flood foreign travel warnings Now sources AWSJ story stated Indonesian JI Thailand simply probable target interna leader named Riduan Isamuddin known tional terrorists staging deadliest terrorist attack since September Thaksin denounced report calling groundless crazy Even Indonesian government master minded Bali attack Thaksin It suspects JI behind So ridiculous paper could meeting Bali southern Thailand A senior police officer meanwhile believed report aimed instigating unrest Thailand De fense Minister General Thammarak Isarangkura Ayudhya vociferous denying Thailand Bali attack That paper report It Nobody knows respon sible Bali attacks could Calling This picture published business section Bangkok Post Asian Wall Street Journal tailless November presents unusual local interpretation Western Thammarak ordered investi terror warnings It shows billboard nationalist Pitak Siam gation determine article Safeguard Siam Group attacking foreign financial institutions opposing lated Thai defaming nation Bank Thailand rules capping credit interest rates eighteen percent government It exhorts Thais patronize foreign banks A cartoon Uncle Sam whiskers holds chain yoking Thai people The chain A Bangkok based contributor marked reading The Eleven Laws reference eleven bills offending article Shawn Crispin adopted previous government satisfy itions International Far Eastern Economic Review hadMonetary Fund Thailand height Asian economic crisis singled special atten The bills aimed foster governance opposed heavily earlier Crispin indebted politicians businessmen disparaged colleague Rodney Tasker threat foreign acquire Thai assets cheap subjugate Thai nation expulsion King Several Thai government organizations currently engaged February writing brief campaign repeal Eleven Laws ticle acknowledged tension What interesting about billboard however Uncle Sam between Prime Minister Thaksin oppresses Thai people interest rates threats block King Bhumiphol Adulyadej Thai imports threat spread rumors about terrorism country revered monarc The Thailand Here terror warnings portrayed another means journalists accused majest U S Thailand submission This interpretation terror pointing King warnings complements popular against terrorism pretext licly criticized Prime Minister U S impose region The billboard indication being intolerant criticism The effort nationalist xenophobic themes surfaced during blacklist journalists served darkest economic crisis continue flogged quarters inforce image Thaksin skinned dictatorial The journalists MZW allowed remain Thailand after Review editor apologized misunderstanding In AWSJ report Defense Minister If reporters Crispin Tasker measures agains If attack Thai should On November ernment censorship committee determined AWSJ article violated Thailand peace honor under printing This however Crispin appears escaped warning careful report about Thailand The AWSJ later published correction explaining sources article believe Bali bombing planned Thailand Even while AWSJ controversy simmered further reports potential terrorist activity Thailand added On November Citibank Hong Kong based gional security office issued travel warning noted presence Thailand Islamic militant linked Qaeda might involved planning terrorist attack place Bangkok between dates No vember The warning specifically mentioned light districts Patpong Road Soi Cowboy Nana Plaza likely targets This prompted Thaksin comes behave intelligence agency That Time magazine carried report based interview Islamic militant Malaysia claimed received weapons explosives train Thai military southern Thailand presence uniformed Thai soldiers Given outland ishness report Thaksin mustered subdued reaction report close fiction Southern Discomfort The government strategy denying terrorist threat appears disconcerting series violent incidents Thailand restive Muslim majority southern provinces Narathiwat Pattani Satun Songkhla Yala On October government insisted Thailand terrorism arsonists schools Songkhla province while bombs exploded hotel Buddhist temple On November gunmen fired police vehicle Pattani province wounding three officers On Nov police Satun defused parcel addressed woman dormitory college Yala The follow police Yala discovered detonated another parcel These latest attacks surge violence started December simultaneous attacks police outposts Narathiwat Pattani Yala provinces killed police officers village defense volunteer Since police ficers killed similar ambush attacks these southernmost provinces There several attacks hotels stations government fices raids government armories On June example gunmen stole assault rifles shotguns thousand rounds ammuni Bang Lang National Park Yala The increase violence appears imprint Muslim separatist activity Vari Muslim separatist groups operated Thailand south since 1960s seeking autonomy dependence southern provinces Malay Muslim separatists southern Thailand inspired history kingdom Patani independent state center Islamic learning tributary Buddhist Siamese kings north Although Bangkok brought Patani under direct administration central government efforts transfer allegiance Malay Muslims their community Thai state incomplete The often heavy handed assimilationist policies implemented Bangkok during century served accentuate ethnic differences strengthening consciousness Malay Muslim Bangkok attempted displace Islamic tradi tional Islamic boarding schools Malay language Thai language education government institu tions directed staffed Thai outsiders Malay Mus responded Bangkok administration avoid Thai institutions including schools One result mostly rural Malay Muslims generally cated relatively poorer Thai Buddhist dwell south economically disadvantaged pared country These circumstances nourished separatist ambitions among Malay Muslims By 1990s however formidable armed separatist movement appeared spent force undone factionalism cross border cooperation tween Thailand Malaysia greater tolerance political religious pluralism Thailand The ernment portrays remaining separatists crimi gangs lacking popular support However alienation Buddhist majority Thai society Malay Muslims entirely abated potential separatist violence remains Indeed after coordinated Christmas Eve attacks Thai officials specu lated separatists seeking attract funding international terrorist groups staging spectacu attack Then Minister Defense current Deputy See Andrew Perrin Thailand Terror Time November available Malay Muslims ethnically culturally distinct dominant central Thai society speak Malay dialect rather Thai Malay Muslims constitute percent population south Muslims percent Thailand population roughly sixty million Indeed southern Thailand marks cultural frontier dividing mostly Malay Muslim world archipelagic Southeast Asia largely Buddhist mainland Patani Malay spelling The English transliteration Thai province Pattani INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh theorized killings revenge death separatist leader hands police during recent battle In short order however government dropped about separatists N after every fresh attack south Prime Minister members cabinet violence criminal political They terrorists bandits Thaksin following deadly assault police outpost May Thaksin ministers describe violence vague terms The attacks forces engaged conflicts interest opportunists seeking create chaos unspecified When speak explicitly might refer cliques corrupt politicians local officials police soldiers former mujahidin recycled hired shooting illegal economy smuggled consumer goods drugs weapons people This national police chief General Sant Saturanond tured media Don separatists Don This organized effort Let group people destroy lives officers create situa appeared control benefit economically chaos One version government theory maintains violence provocateurs uniform threatened their sinecures separatists marginalized In particular dissolve Southern Border Provinces Administra Center Civilian Police Military Command coordinating mechanisms established years implement government security programs south angered military officers faced losing illicit income As former Interior Min ister Purachai Piumsombun March Un violence South senior officials continue provide protection crimi gangs exchange money In April govern scrapped coordinating bodies effort tionalize security efforts south giving police thority The violence military desist blaming other By July Army returned intelligence gathering south National Security Council nounced coordinating mechanisms those abolished There truth government acterization southern violence tween criminal elements The south certainly share corrupt politicians officials A Western military attach Thai officers south often supplement their income outside activities though corruption decreased decade These police deeply involved protection rackets It bullets bombs sometimes settle scores simply message business political rival In Thailand distinction between business politics often super fluous Last month driving Ruang sister visit their brother Nakhon Pathom passed state electric company Two killed there weeks sister They dling employee fired corruption It exploded while showing reporters Last December Tesco Lotus superstore Bangkok attacked rocket pelled grenade dispute store motorcycle concession It likely violence south shares criminal character Yet government insistence there litical aspect murdered police officers arson attacks entirely convincing Though govern ministers often suggest violence unwilling names The government maintains separatists responsible police cited national security reasons shutting website separatist Patani United Liberation Organi zation November The ernment failed articulate exactly attacks picture organized crime explain petrators alleged links police would their lives steal weapons Moreover corrupt cials organized crime unique southern Thai unique south pattern murdered policemen After recent attacks Thaksin reiterated violence political saying The ation serious No problem In radio address October Thaksin explained There group people patriotic private interests fellow countrymen The government gloss recent tacks aimed discrediting govern after repeatedly denied terrorist threat In particular government contends attacks undermine Interior Minister Wan Muhamad Nor Matha Muslim Yala province The notion recent ambush arson attacks carried intention making government appears reflection Prime Minister dency everything personally Yet claim suggests domestic political subtext government position attacks After becoming Thailand millions telecommunications industry Thaksin formed political party Thai Rak Thai Thais Love Thais By combining personal wealth novelties opinion polls groups policy platform Thaksin ushered Thai politics public relations Soon Thai Rak Thai became Thailand largest popular party decisively defeating incumbent Democrat adminis MZW tration election The Democrats party opposition dominant party south which forms their traditional support When Thaksin suggests local politicians officials south violence implication clear So going south Is police Mafia violence Secessionist jihad Thai style politics We Dr Surachart Bamrungsuk security expert Chulalongkorn Univer links between Muslims southern Thailand Qaeda JI conditions certainly there Let three million Muslims south If percent radicalized thirty thousand radicals Even percent percent still three hundred cases prepared violence their cause This analysis points fundamental diffi culty assessing southern violence Is political lence Is motivated profit The observer reduced imputing motives actions about which almost nothing known except general context results The distinc between common murder terrorist hinges gunmen their masters intend complish Are striking against Siamese oppression getting The official version incidents The situation South unclear Those talking No claimed respon sibility attacks demands issued convicted crime Al Qaeda Connection Whatever character violence south widely believed local product There dence suggest recent attacks linked Qaeda local affiliate JI On other connections between local Islamic militants terrorist networks difficult imagine Some foreign terrorism experts insist JI operates Thai Thailand attack Ac cording Dr Rohan Gunaratna terrorism expert University St Andrews Scotland Thai authori making fatal mistake Jemaah Islamiah frastructure there there doubt Phuket considered targets before Bali The Thais having their Bali As West diplomat Bangkok explained I knowl south removes Muslim separatism potential factor This meant reassuring However government dismisses Muslim separatism cause replace general lawlessness instigated local officials Even government version accurate Thailand still serious problem Those charged ensuring order instead subverting Terrorists circumstances inviting Explaining Southeast Asia traction Qaeda Zachary Abuza writes S outheast Asian states I countries convenience terrorists tourist friendly minimal requirements financial oversights established informal remittance ystems overseas workers porous borders often central government control endemic government corruption illicit Although government trying erase connection between Thailand terrorism minds potential visitors Thai authorities taken measures improve Thailand capabilities counter Thaksin antagonist Democrat Party former Prime Minister Chuan Leekphai Chuan hails south province Trang Thaksin Chiang Mai principal northern Thailand Thaksin attempted score points Muslim southerners complaining Northerner difficulty Central Thai dialect which explained press often misunderstood Quoted Simon Elegant Unmasking Terror Time November available Zachary Abuza Introduction Tentacles Terror Al Qaeda Southeast Asian Network Forthcoming Lynne Rei avail 4corners stories s711740 INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS terrorism The government knows attack scale Bali bombings damag Thai economy decline tourism stemming prospect attack On October Thailand signed Memorandum Understanding Australia counter terrorism cooperation addressing border control identity fraud traffic weapons After Bali bombings National Security Council proposed establish hotline drivers report information about potential rorists At Eighth ASEAN Summit Phnom Penh Thailand acceded Agreement Information Ex change Establishment Communication Proce dures already signed Indonesia Malaysia Philippines This agreement facilitate greater coordination among these states fighting transnational crime Late November government announced establishmen domestic counter terrorism combining police units On No vember Bangkok staged first terrorism response exercise simulating attacks theaters stadiums capital Late November brought first acknow ledgement level Thai official foreign terrorists recently entered Thailand The preme commander Royal Thai Armed Forces General Surayud Chulanont We intelligence reports indicating foreign militants either sneaked entered Kingdom However country Surayud maintained these militants planning Bali bombing It worth noting Malaysia asked Thailand eight Qaeda suspects recently October Of course surprise terrorists passed through Thailand Surayud acknowledgement impor revelation indication spite public relatio campaign threat interna tional terrorism being entirely discounted Thai authorities Indeed international terrorists targeted Bangkok before In March Israeli Embassy foiled moment Bangkok torious traffic A truck loaded massive struck motorcycle short distance Israeli Embassy When crowd started panicked terrorist leaving police discover along murdered driver Police similar device attack World Trade Center The terrorist Iranian citizen arrested several months later He Malaysia apprehended after crossing border southern Thailand No Good No Problem It unfortunate Thaksin constituency campaign minimize terrorist threat Thai people foreign governments tourists The Thais I spoken largely nperturbed warnings terrorist threat Thailand On Saturday night Bangkok famous backpacker ghetto Khao San Road crowded mostly young mostly Western tourists Here Bangkok equiva Bali Kuta there apparent relaxed I speak woman selling rubber masks monsters superheroes Also offer latex likeness Osama Laden It pretty tells Who buying Farang Western foreigners Who would rubber Thailand dubious drollery impersonating Laden The staff Suzie Pub unmoved terror warnings I guess could happen young tender shrug He interest contemplating truck outside place employment Rather wants I about latest American scholarship Atlantis At Banglampu police station around corner Khao San Road tells orders after Bali bombing security district The visible signs enhanced security portable metal barriers either Khao San Road blocking entrance vehicle larger motorcycle There explosive sniffing officer tells plainclothes police mixing Too uniformed police would unnerving foreigners He confident there attack Khao San Road Across Soi Cowboy Cowboy Alley three small enclaves Bangkok catering Western tourists girls bored Given symbolic value Soi Cowboy seems contender terrorist attack No worker asked about effect Bali bombing No custom Look around there Security It stands reason General Surayud should official willing acknowledge Thailand immune international terrorism Surayud appointed Chief Army previous Democrat administration earned tation professional soldier Army politics However Surayud Thaksin adminis tration policy toward Burma Surayud tough stance against traffickers along border irritated Burmese government undermining Thaksin placatory approach Rangoon In October military reshuffle engineered Thaksin Surayud promoted largely ceremonial Supreme Commander replaced general known receptive conciliatory Burma policy MZW stepped after Bali workers universally happy about In practice hanced security means police riving AM enforce legal closing Otherwise police Farang police woman The residents Soi Cowboy cerned about terrorism frightened They speak possible attack resignation seems compass prospect rorism I little scared there I about woman front called The Long Gun daughter Terrorism least worries right another woman manager neighboring Drugs biggest problem Echoing hopeful logic Prime Minister young woman plains Thailand peace world We Thais enemies I think rorists attack Her friend disagrees She reading about Jemaah Islamiah Internet worried about It dangerous world I school years I going At around corner Soi Cowboy young woman explains threat terrorist attack wouldn Soi Cowboy there cating point INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Fellows their Activities Martha Farmelo April ARGENTINA A Georgetown graduate major psychology minor Spanish Master Public Affairs Woodrow Wilson School Princeton Martha Institute Suzanne Ecke McColl Fellow studying gender issues Argentina Married Argentine economist mother small focusing genders which immensely important Italo Latino machismo Martha involved Latin America professional having worked Catholic Relief Services Inter American Development Bank Costa Rica Human Rights Watch Ecuador Inter American Foundation El Salvador Uruguay UN World Conference Women Beijing Curt Gabrielson December EAST TIMOR With M issouri background MIT degree physics Curt spending years East Timor watching nation create education system ashes Indonesian system Since finishing MIT Curt focused delivering inexpensive culturally relevant hands science education minority income students Based Teacher Institute Exploratorium San Francisco worked youth teachers Beijing Tibet Mexican agricultural Watsonville California Andrew Rice May UGANDA A former staff writer New York Observer reporter Philadelphia Inquirer Washington Bureau Newsday Andrew spending years Uganda watching waiting reporting possibility anticipated African Renaissance might begin administration President Yoweri Museveni Andrew B A Government Georgetown minor Theology after having spent emester Charles University Prague where served intern Velvet magazine later traveled experienced wrote about conflict Balkans Matthew Z Wheeler October THAILAND A former research assistant Rand Corporation specializing South Southeast Asia Matt spend years looking proposals plans realities regional integration disintegration along Mekong River China Vietnam With B A liberal Sarah Lawrence M A Harvard East Asian studies Blakemore Fellowship Thai language studies Matt short conflicts Burma Thailand Laos Cambodia account lives writes learns about region James G Workman January SOUTHERN AFRICA A policy strategist national restoration initiatives Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt Jamie ICWA Donors Fellow looking south African nations South Africa Botswana Mozambique Zambia maybe Zimbabwe through their utilization conservation fresh water supplies A Yale graduate History spent junior Oxford Jamie journalism fellowship Poynter Institute Media Studies wrote New Republic Washington Business Journal before years Babbitt Since served Senior Advisor World Commission Dams Cape Town South Africa Institute Fellows chosen basis character previous experience promise They young professionals funded spend minimum years carrying designed programs study writing outside United States The Fellows quired report their findings experiences field month They write subject formally informally The result unique reporting analysis assessment interna tional events issues Author Wheeler Matthew Z Title ICWA Letters South Asia ISSN Imprint Institute Current World Affairs Hanover NH Material Type Serial Language English Frequency Monthly Other Regions East Asia The Americas Europe Russia Mideast North Africa Sub Saharan Africa ICWA Letters ISSN lished Institute Current World Affairs Inc exempt operat foundation incorporated New York State offices located West Wheelock Street Hanover NH 03755 The letters provided charge members ICWA available libraries professional researchers subscription Phone E Mail ICWA valley Fax Web Site Executive Director Peter Bird Martin Program Assistant Brent Jacobson Publications Ellen Kozak Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation The formation contained publication reproduced without writer permission