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12/1/2004 - Final Report to Members and Trustees by Matthew Z. Wheeler

ICWA LETTERS Since Institute Current World Affairs Crane Rogers Foundation provided fellowships enable outstanding young professionals outside United States write about international areas issues An exempt operating foundation endowed Charles R Crane Institute supported contributions minded individuals foundations TRUSTEES Bryn Barnard Joseph Battat Mary Lynne Bird Steven Butler Sharon F Doorasamy William F Foote Peter Geithner Gary Hartshorn Kitty Hempstone Katherine Roth Kono Cheng Li Peter Bird Martin Dasa Obereigner Chandler Rosenberger Edmund Sutton HONORARY TRUSTEES David Elliot David Hapgood Pat M Holt Edwin S Munger Richard H Nolte Albert Ravenholt Phillips Talbot Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation Four West Wheelock Street Hanover New Hampshire 03755 U S A MZW SOUTHEAST ASIA Matthew Wheeler former RAND Corporation securi terrorism researcher studying relations among between nations along Mekong River A final report delivered ICWA Members Trustees meeting Cosmos Club Washington DC December Unfinished Business Regionalism Nationalism Democracy Mekong Region By Matthew Z Wheeler It Atlantic I raised about drive Baltimore Although I spent years Mary wishing I somewhere years since about possible I still affection Baltimore Washington D C It still feels It great Cosmos Club where almost three years I first Peter Martin At course Fellowship existed dream Today I fortunate grateful about reality years Southeast Asia It enormously difficult distill thoug impressions years short morning especially years ICWA Fellow One great things about ICWA Fellows expected pected Fellows encouraged flexible embrace unforeseen arises cling tightly proposals circumstances interests change As result Fellows often writing about things never expected write about My fellowship followed pattern There about years interest I going focus issues I I excited Mekong Region ICWA Fellow learn about regional integration disintegration which original focus lowship I about national integration tionalism Over course Fellowship I found disintegration conflicts between states often traced conflicts within states I found these problems national integration immediate issue regional integration I going about looking specifically playing southern Thailand Finally I about democracy rather mainland Southeast Asia again special reference Thailand where I based where I spent ICWA Fellow Regional Integration Disintegration First regional integration disinte gration Mainland Southeast Asia Mekong Region includes nations Burma Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam The Chinese province Yunnan usually included contemporary descriptions mainland Southeast Asia In order understand integration Mekong Region interested important remember divided region For Mekong still conjures images insurgency In I first serious attention region still battlefield Indeed region years historians number The First Indochina War began World War II ended It continued until France surrendered colonial possessions Cambodia Laos Vietnam The Second Indochina War began years later It known Vietnam War known Vietnamese American War The Third Indochina War which began Vietnamese Cambodia drove genocidal Khmer Rouge power That already decade I first began study region At Mekong Region seemed perpetual In Vietnamese would known about years official peace Her counterparts Burma Cambodia Laos would known little Let revisit little region Tens thousands Vietna troops still occupied Cambodia where fought grind guerrilla campaign mounted Khmer Rouge other rebels called Vietnam Vietnam The Khmer Rouge remained going spite presiding nearly million Cambodians their return power prospect Vietnam treated international state shunned Asia burdened U S sanctions completely dependent So Thailand Laos fought short border disputed territory The Communist Party Thailand finally collapsed guerrilla fighters hills A military Thailand toppled first elected prime minister almost years Vietnamese Chinese naval vessels clashed disputed South China Sea known Vietnamese East Sea Vietnamese sailors killed The Burmese Army crushed nation democracy movement killing hundreds imprisoning thousands The Burmese Army battling dozen ethnic insurgent groups These rebel groups controlled Burma especially areas But something happened Thailand Prime Minister former general named Chatichai Choonhavan called transformation mainland Southeast Asia battlefield marketplace Al though before Chatichai deposed catchphrase battlefield marketplace struck chord It captured sense world peace prosperity eluded Mekong Region could become reality So I began attention Mekong Region things started change There sense optimism after settlement Cambodian civil focused plans bring economic development region When I first applied ICWA I interested Greater Mekong Subregion GMS This Asian Development calls mainland Southeast Asia In ADB proposed schemes designed courage trade economic growth building infra structure region sorely lacked I especially attracted their proposed transport corridors river links aimed linking resources labor markets across Mekong Region Now I attracted these proposals because MZW I aficionado development schemes because there something thrilling about prospect literally linking together flung parts vided region One reason I found thrilling because I studying region history especially early before European colonies replaced indigenous I wondered would happen Mekong Region regional order governments ideological commitments obligations super power Would colonial rivalries return bringing region conflict again Would greater commerce interaction between former enemies bring about sense common identity reveal dimen sions conflict competition There great change region since Regional integration evident spheres For example Mekong region countries Association Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN All Mekong countries embraced principle market economics Governments working establish ASEAN Free Trade Area Trade among Mekong countries growing There nascent sense regional identity associated Mekong evident example Southeast Asia Games intra regional tourism This summer example I Thais caravan wheel drive SUVs through borderlands northern Thailand Laos Yunnan Burma It bille Na tions Autoventure alternatively The Chiangs referring Chiang Mai Chiang Rai Chiang Khong Thailand Chiang Rung Yunnan Chiang Tung Burma The organized group Thai companies cooperation Chiang Mai province tourism authority The assess possibilities running tours Na tions It interesting observe attitudes Thai tourists neighboring countries The Thais taken Tais their ethnic cousins Yunnan We Tai village tourist billed Tai wedding ceremony Young attractive Tai women brightly colored ditional dress picked grooms among group Then enjoyed spectacle abbrevi raucous Tai wedding complete dancing playful little competitions The performance played quite strongly skillfully Thai stereotypes Tai women ninhibited freer their Thai counterparts respect sexual mores It played Tai bearers spoiled Tai culture culture common Thai speakers throughout region Thailand largely rapid economic development It Thais Yunnan glimpse their ancestors The Five Chiangs reflects integration concrete This wouldn sible couple years earlier principle obstacle being Shan State In southern Shan state Burmese government control shaky This dominated ethnic group called Wa Burmese control grown stronger during years fellowship In northern Shan State region Chinese border Burmese govern ceded authority Sino Shan militia change cease agreement Although Chinese still through border gamble Mon La there permanent Burmese author other Chinese border execute passport formalities Another impediment travel region state roads In March I Mae Sai Thailand Chiang Tung there Chinese border At plete Chinese construction crews working furious When I passed again caravan June I found tarred Chinese border Mae Sai Thailand That means drive route Kunming Bangkok weather Indeed I after I Thailand caravan Thai trucks begun transport produce China using Shan State route Nationalism National Integration While regional integration enough levels I impressed during fellowship power forces working against regional integration Th powerful these forces fierce nationalism The potency nationalism region onstrated Thai broke Cambodia capital Phnom Penh January An angry rampage attacking Thai nesses burning Thai Embassy What their grievance What driven these young violence They angry because reports Thai tress quite popular Cambodia claimed magnificent temples Angkor Wat belonged Thailand The comments attributed young actress which tearfully disavowed minder western Cambodia controlled Thailand within Siamese sphere influence But comments Angkor Wat belong Cambodia meant Angkor Wat INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS Cambodian national identity The temples reminder Cambodians glory prowess The words ttributed Thai starlet ceived insult Khmer dignity The shocked Thai people They asked other They Cambodia perceive Thais slick businessmen greedy rapacious When Ruang I Angkor Wat young seller child declared matter Thais Cambodians I disturbed Ruang especially because excited there liked place people She turbed friends weren interested about Cambodia contrast earlier trips U S U K But interesting thing about Phnom Penh Several people I talked there probably organized elements ruling party We Cambodian police nothing control until violence already gotten Camb Prime Minister Hun Sen might efited stirring hatred Thailand Hun Sen ponents accuse being Vietnamese stooge Anti Vietnamese sentiment Cambodia Re directing Cambodian xenophobia Vietnam would Hun Sen politically The point I emphasize country tragic recent history Cambodian national identity quite fragile apparently defending This fragility diaphanous imagined quality national identity reasons nationalism remains virulent Why It because leaders states official nationalism If control their territory legitimacy comes ruling command allegiance entire population nationalism forge sense common exclusive identity within states ethnically diverse historically fractious Diverse fractious descri Mekong states In Mekong Region national integration ongoing process I greater depth about happen southern Thailand Nationalism increasingly being advanced government solution festering problem ratism three Muslim majority provinces southern border I understand violence there attract international media attention It certainly story Thailand because Islamist element attracts attention global terrorism Beyond these reasons though I think lustrates quite clearly problem national integra Since beginning Thailand south border provinces become politically violent place region More people Mus Buddhists officials militants killed there Last month deadliest month killed The problem outhern Thailand history The south populated mostly ethnic Malays speak Malay dialect speak Thai second language The Malays Muslims constitute about percent Thai population In South however Muslims majority They resisted assimilation Thai Buddhist society which threat their Malay Muslim identity These southern provinces constituted Islamic sultanate called Patani It center trade Is lamic learning Southeast Asia Patani tribu kingdom showing perfunctory allegiance Bangkok That changed Bangkok serted direct administrative control these Muslim provinces The result unrest periodic lence since The Muslim reaction Bangkok assimilation resistance usually passive sometimes violent In other words integration Malay Muslim population Thai ation incomplete In first newsletter Thailand Terrorism after Bali I mentioned violence southern Thailand At Thai government insisted killings attacks occasional bombings southern Thai connection Muslim separatism Is lamist extremism other parts Southeast Asia The violence however forced government acknowledge separatist movement active region There hundreds violent incidents south stand On April young Muslim militants staged coordinated attacks police posts three provinces Most armed nothing knives machetes More killed Thirty killed revered Kreu Se mosque Pattani Province where taken shelter after killing policeman The assaulted mosque after several hours standoff killing inside I remember seeing television footage diers mosque entrance firing their weapons almost Human rights activists local people outraged government handling Kreu Se MZW siege calling force excessive unnecessary The inside mosque surrounded Why Indeed senior officer scene General Panlop Pinmanee ordered assault recalled Bangkok temporarily relieved command It clear whether General Panlop aware nificance Kreu Se mosque Thailand Malay Mus significance April On after protests against Thai dozens Muslims killed clashes Thai Kreu Se mosque The mosque important symbol local Mus history illustrates reasons Malay Muslims resentful Thai state economic power local ethnic Chinese According legend Kreu Se mosque built years Chinese merchant converted Islam married local noblewoman The legend holds mosque never finished because curse Kreu Se cursed Chinese merchant sister Lim Ko Niew traveled China Patani convincing brother nounce Islam return family When refused Lim Ko Niew herself before placing curse mosque could never completed Now would simple matter disprove curse Just build right But local Muslims prevented lifting legend curse cause mosque listed Fine Arts Department historical which means changes building prohibited What Lim Ko Niew become diety Confucian values major attraction promoted Pattani Tourism Author The Lim Ko Niew brings thousands ethni Chinese tourists region especially Malaysia The curse central legend To disprove would business So Muslim inter restoring place subordinated Thai profits Chinese cultural traditions It small example thing makes Muslims second class citizens Thailand I visited Kreu Se months after massacre It pockmarked bullet holes Construction mixing cement sawing boards restoration project After incident ernment decided restore mosque gesture Muslim community The curse lifted I heard Lim Ko Niew grave mosque I surprised mosque grave Only fence rates It worth noting original gravesite It moved about years I asked Muslim shopkeeper mosque about having grave Chinese Islamaphobe mosque He I After brother sister But about fleets buses crowds Chinese tourists noise firecrackers gongs I So Kreu Se mosque unfinished building It symbol Muslim pride minder Malay Muslims their relative power It accident refuge mosque chose there They remembered martyrs After Kreu Se incident difficult imagine Thai government could worsen situation further alienate Muslims On October however managed Police soldiers killed Muslims protestors Tak Bai Narathiwat Province after protest turned violent Two later revelation Muslim taken custody T Bai after suffocated death stacked other bodies trucks Prime Minister Thaksin refused apologize these deaths He detainees because Ramadan fasting incident unfor tunate accident The Tak Bai incident government dling pushed situation south breaking point People south scared trated Neighboring leaders Malaysia Indonesia demanded explanations Thaksin about happening their Muslim brothers sisters Thailand Thaksin government utterly unable response might tension He reshuffled cabinet twice hoping ministers solve problem In March Thaksin ministers Chaturon Chaiseng south study problem In April Chaturon proposed seven point Chi among recommendations Police torturing ducting murdering people He proposed martial offering amnesty accused ratists Unfortunately Chaturon shelf after April attack After Kreu Se incident I talked Muslim political scientist Bangkok situation dangerous while Chaturon before Kreu Se necessary After Tak Bai INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS difficult imagine Thai government could confidence Mus south Thaksin seems driven distraction southern crisis Nothing works Every thing makes situation worse His latest deployed later tonight Royal Thai Air Force transport planes millions origami paper cranes Pattani Yala Narathiwat These paper cranes consid symbol peace Ja intended demon strate somehow concern entire Thai nation security welfare southerners Buddhists Muslims alike I think paper cranes probably going trick A little I lunch Thai friend He journalist years In happening country When I state despair He feels clock turned there communist hysteria Thailand This communism officially sanctioned directed domestic opponents It reached pitch after communist victories Indochina culminated lynching student protestors Thammasat University Bangkok These murders perpetrated state sponsored paramili organization called Village Scouts My friend especially disconcerted speech Maj Queen Sirikit returned residing south She Thais blame government happening there She there should concern about welfare south Buddhists She would start carry handgun learn These comments coming revered thority symbol country point deepening between Malays Thais My friend fears situation become polarized violent explosion inevitable In means something communal violence between Bud dhists Muslims Just there rally Vil Scouts Bangkok Although called violence south rally dormant Village Scouts looks prelude greater violence The final chapter Thailand national integration written Democracy Lack It Earlier I I going about democracy I always wanted I prised democracy rather featured I I wrote about First acknowledge Mekong Region hotbed liberal democracy Consider Laos China Vietnam region highest concentration communist countries earth Burma hardly worth mentioning regard A military dictatorship since documented record rights abuses Cambodia complicated I learned I there national election Cambodia might ballot democracy It periodic elections certified international community political playing field tilted toward ruling party entrenched political patronage Consider since tional elections produce transfer power after election I reported 11months before contesting parties agree power sharing arrangement That means months without legis lature hardly picture healthy democracy As usual Thailand exception region It enjoys reputation responsible international player leading democracy Southeast Asia during MZW ICWA Fellow I slide toward authoritarianism For decades politics Thailand followed cycle military coups caretaker governments This cycle seems broken since there process democratic consolidation Thailand This democratic trend gathered economic crisis It caused enormous hardship recently enjoyed highest growth rates world In Thailand adopted constitution It vided several independent government oversight bodies designed stamp corruption conflicts interest ensure government would function honestly transpare during years But economic hardship Thailand bring desire reform It brought desire relief liverance times With nation nationalism intense Many Thais accused interests institutions George Soros International Monetary Fund causing nomic crisis profiting Thailand Ram globalization destructive force opposed In these difficult circumstances former police ultra telecom tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra power political party called Thai Rak Thai Thais Love Thais Thaksin appealed reasons As argued corrupt As successful CEO experience attitude needed economy around He proposed generous programs spread money around country including program distribute about every llage He proposed scheme health visit doctor would He proposed moratorium Thaksin political innovator Not forward actual policies novelty Thai politics based those policies research about voters wanted In contrast school political parties repre sented business military interests Thai Rak Thai populist platform appearance party people first Thaksin brought savvy Thai politics marketing himself party product Thailand never anything before The result victory polls launching political juggernaut But before Thaksin could office indicted National Counter Corruption Commission failing fully close assets required If found guilty matter Constitutional Court Thaksin would forced premiership would barred politics years After Thaksin office Constitutional Court acquitted controversial decision This independent oversight bodies Thaksin prime minister treating efforts question policies affront Thai people Thaksin powerful leader Thailand known Even Thailand military dictators control bureaucracy media society Thaksin enjoys today His party overwhelming majority Parliament He tamed bureaucracy Thailand lively independent media learned censor themselves disciplined Thaksin control advertising Thaksin relatives classmates quickly risen echelons Army police force One would think leader enjoying plete control broad popular support would confidence Thaksin however seems remarkably insecure The slightest criticism gives If intolerance manifested merely regular outbursts against nothing academics disloyal NGOs ungrateful superpower allies there would perhaps little impact Thailand civil society But Thaksin takes intolerance extremes He demon strated early willingness employ least toler force against troublemakers those would challenge The result chilling forced potential critics think carefully about risks speaking The important instance Thaksin forceful approach policy three month launched early Roughly people murdered kingdom during those three months government officials police raced Thaksin targets dealers action Many those killed course small former users others somehow ended government blacklists The killings appalling quite popular Thailand A Suan Dusit people during height campaign showed approval In another percent hoped government would continue policy Thaksin human rights It looked great return Cold War mentality Thai security forces operated death squads combat communists General Panlop ordered attack Kreu Se mosque earlier explicit between methods younger against communist suspects campaign And I suggestion return Cold War INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS mentality Gestapo tactics overstated Consider disappearance prominent Muslim lawyer Somchai Neelapaijit March At disappearance Somch repre sented Muslim arrested southern Thailand charged members regional terror group Jemaah Islamiyah These rested June Thaksin meeting Washington D C President Bush Somchai collecting signatures calling martial south Somchai troublemaker After apparent abduction Thaksin Somchai probably enjoying little after quarrelling Later cabinet minister Somchai already Several policemen since arrested connection conspiracy abduct Somchai Somchai extra judicial killings during nished Thailand reputation defender human rights called Thai government respect It reminder democ government Democracy difficult define difficult alize practice However probably agree democ elections A rough ready measure democracy system which powerless bring powerful wrongdoer justice By measure democracy Thailand longer other Mekong countries Final Remarks In conclusion I Joseph Battat comments night about importance ICWA mission The expertise knowledge places people culture history cheap important people means value Institute mission growing Fellowships investments though Peter sometimes warned essaying expertise these investments least designed deepen knowledge about different parts world Go foreign place observe report It simple I believe never important I thank trustees giving opportunity I these years Peter purpose Institute Fellowship merely study Fellow become I needed I I always grateful Institute giving My thanks Brent Jacobson Ellen Kozak Every I Fellow every I wrote indeed morning event wouldn possible without their efforts I acknowledge their Let thank Peter Martin giving chance first instance helping become better writer steady support matters great small While I chance I thank parents I could lifetimes never begin repay everything choices Finally I thank Ruangsasitorn support understanding Thank Institute Fellows basis charac previous experience promise They young professionals funded spend years carrying designed programs study writing United States The Fellows required report their findings experiences field month They write subject formally informally The result unique reporting analysis periodic assessment international events issues ICWA Letters ISSN published Institute Current World Affairs Inc exempt operating foundation incorporated New York State offices located West Wheelock Street Hanover NH 03755 The letters provided charge members ICWA available libraries professional searchers subscription Phone E Mail ICWA valley Fax Web Site Executive Director Peter Bird Martin Program Assistant Bre Jacobson Publications Manager Ellen Kozak Institute Current World Affairs The Crane Rogers Foundation The Information contained publi cation reprinted repub lished without express written consent Institute Current World Affairs