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4/23/1983 - Korea: A First Impression by Steven B. Butler

NOT FOR PUBLICATION WITHOUT WRITER S CONSENT INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS SBB I Asia Research Center Korea University Seoul Korea Korea A First Impression April Ir Peter Bird artin Institute Current World Affairs West Wheelock Street Hanover N H 03755 Dear Peter Every often international iopment agency threat graduat Korea ranks developing countries The reasons apparent Korea economy impres sively 1960s 1970s growing rates averaging decade The prices world recession heavily modest Korean dards growth fualed heavily government construction projects including ambitious subway system Seoul streets getting around nightmare Exports traditional source growth slacked foreign soare billion dollars putting Korea fourth higest foreign behind three nearly insolvent least highly illiq Latin American nations But economists agree Korea doldrums current world economic recovery continues Still notion Korea developed enough compete ground brings cries protest Korea doesn benefits cooperative programs It afraid other nations their But protests strong sense nerability permeates Korean vulnerability those accept status those would change I north valley surrounded lovely wooded hills other luxury homes stacked hillside collection window Behind hillside craggy granite peaks dominate Steven B Butler Fellow Institute Current World Affairs studying economic political developments Korea Northeast Asia valley patches scrubby trees punotuating The humble valley floor Seoul developers I stayed clear because direct between president mansion Blue House DMZ north In 1960s North Korean commandos tried attack Blue House assassinate President Park capture pretty south slope valley Now government prevents hikers developers traversing hillside But Seoul residents stretch green scoffed A spell advanced opening cherry blossoms cherry sythia azelea magnoliso blooming threat Seoul security seems benign A downt valley takes about twenty minutes So I counted three steel barricades gates swung place quickly block roads The security arrangements curiously mimic thinking Yi Dynasty founders chose Seoul barrier tains north their capital largely orotect themselves against northern invaders Eventually though Japanese toppled dynasty south Now south mountains great worth protecting Seoul population stood under Today people South Korea nearly They stream parts country search I But enough people arrived Seoul world fourth largest Seoul ancient And reflecting agricultural society sustained capital neighborhoods overgrown villages twisting narrow lanes walls paved stone parent direction older neighborhoods remain intact bulldozers gradually ringed straight avenues The downtown showcase Korean proficienc construction Its modern hotels office towers sometimes hidden behind alleys match gleam solid sleakness world They belie Korea status developing nation But outside through their glass facades convince otherwise Seoul transportation system somewhat worse primitive One subway lines connecting trains Seoul million buses Hundreds creep crawl through downto avenues belching cloud smoke permanently enshrouds The roads enough traffic prohibit turns forcing drivers circuitous series right turns little where began Blasting subway occasion rattles windows stretches steel plates endless traffic falling large eventually house underground stations Twice though plates cou21e buses giving papers scandal about Oonstruction equipment litters streets Seoul resident unpleasantness surprising humor courtesy compared oublic havior other large crowded Asian cities Young people their seats buses anyone carrying parcel before seated passenger offersto Instead orscing regard drivers harried would rider gives chase pulls These small things hostile The Han River formed convenient southern boundary single bridge terrible bottle residents escaping North Korean troops Now bridges river under construction population spilled masse inhabit southern There roads right angles parallel around endless Of apartment blocks which become object intense speculative investments especially since government lowered interest rates Korea Japan become model economic acles Here place seems where market magic worked there although would explain start government tightly controlled Korea marketplace Stiff import barriers major industries sprawling trading conglo merates which cooperate closely government control chunk economy Last gover_oent shares banks public continues interest rates allocate loans The government realize control protects efficiency Korean industry especially since other nations cheap labor including China giving Korea money labor intensive export industries garment manufacturing Cheap labor course prime ingredient Korea export competitiveness gowernment trade union movement upset applecart Korea worries because developed countries cheap Korean imports And Korean plaints about foreign protectionism sound oersuasive viewed against Korea formidable import barriers oreans proud their economic achievements other nations Korea developed country tolerant rules taxes prevent selling goods The government gradually eased import restrictions promised domestic marketolace become But halting steps these direc tions dictably upset another powerful interest The going promises The government elected certain industries strategic development One shipbmilding Korea become largest builders world second fiercest competitor Japan which controls about world market One Korean economist predicted after several years economic recovery capacity international shipping pared Korea share advance Korea course benefited world 9rices But edged sword Middle Eastern nations longer construction projects em9loyed Korean workers provided sizeable foreign exchange earnings And world rushing tankers Koreans build proficien The conductor computer industry received attention government supported investment But wonder Korea effectively compete industry where United States Ja9an technology where advances quickly But critics admit wrong before Korea building house cards It economy however troubles people Rather Korea struggle domestic stability legitimacy international recognition The government worries obvious Buses police avenues downtown waiting something happen About I heard sound singing drift office Korea University nothing unusual itself Korean whether halls night athletic fields cheer their The sound aroused attention rhythmic stomp policemen boots followed afterwards cannisters The combat oolice rived minutes after students began their government activities The police undoubtedly prior warning suads plainclothesmen indistin guishable students disperse through In hours campus returned normal minus demonstration leaders bandaged heads In thirty years democracy Korea found baton presidential power peaoefully Sthdents President Chun Doo Blue House bitterly resent They forgotten widespread violence accompanied President They mollified release opposition leader Kim Dae Jung American exile winnowing banned politicians Still probably major shock would camouses streets One shock might revision constitution allow President serve second Rumors about impending amendments National Assembly though Prime inister directly denied The Pres ident repeatedly promised office expires But analysts wonder willing Restrictions political activity prevent alternate candidates mustering constituencies would legitimate claim office A International Olympic Committee selected Seoul Summer Olympics Al though still years hardly several articles newspapers about another preparation games The Olnpics supposed apolitical But government realistically event somewhat differently The Seoul government believes selection Seoul animplicit international recognition legitimacy small South Korea rocky tical history competing claims North Korea Shortly afterward Seoul selected tohost Asian Games general assembly Inter Parliamentary Union which North Korea member convene The North Korean government apparently views these events South It proposed moving IPU conference rallied allies support cause The Finnish government recently expelled North Korean ambas sador attempting bribe Finnish politician games moved The papers statements government leaders warning danger invasion north higher The President sDokesmen argue aging Kim Il desperate prevent Seoul gaining international recognition legitimacy series international events onfer They warned people expect communist inspired demonstrations sabotage spring summer I heard Ameri G I predict would pletion Seoul subway It evaluate scare It superficial plausibility On other govern never known silence subject North Korean threat People defense commitments United States stronger years students fresh lieve government exaggerates threat excuse enforce domestic restrictions political activity Still warnings completely I rangued close Koreans suddenly became intensely worried United States would withdraw leave posed terror They loved United States believed absolut democracy insisted I exactly meant opinion these issues evidently united In international attention focus Seoul since Korean War And govern plans Projects Olynpics include everything moving restaurants alleys completing system people reaching letic fields gymnssiums The government doesn chances anything wrong It particularly political demonstrations events Some worry President aside violence ensues North Korea Communist other allies decide Others gested however sheer historical importance peaceful transfer power legitimacy would confer gover current 2resident Chun convince necessary prepara tions In event years promise important Korea Iore anyone residents Seoul benefit projects improve please international guests Some still Olympics become another excuse restrict politic activity order If Olympics successfully staged goverrment begin confident concerned about attack north worried about international stand afraid people But there rocky Best Steven B Butler Received Hanover