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4/5/1957
- Thoughts on the Succession
by Smith Hempstone Jr.
NOT FOR PUBLICATION INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS SH April Thoughts Succession Addis Ababa Ethiopia mailed Nairobi Mr Walter S Rogers Institute Current World Affairs Fifth Avenue New York New York Dear Rogers The successor throne Conquering Lion Tribe Judah Elect God Emperor Ethiopia Merid Azmach Asfa Wosen crown prince apparent The Cown Prince educated Ethiopia England somewhat question Ethiopians foreign mission heads alike His father given little opporttuuity demonstrate abilities He arrogant eager student state craft authoritarian fairly intellig He support Ethiopian moderates least reason other course peaceful succession throne bloodshed return anarchy which prevailed years Mene II He parently limited support members three making groups Church Army Nobles And although diplomats Ethiopian government officials privately enjoy Emperor total fidence still Haile Selassie support matter Succession The Emperor second Prince akonnen attractive dynamic personality The Prince father grand father governor general unlike Duke Harar biggest province empire years British educated three Crown Prince three Prince Abeto Yakob Prince Nakonnen aside administering province which either capital Harar chateau Wingate Avenue Addis Ababa fingers several commercial He coffee plantations manages acres Addis Ababa estate dabbles skins hides movie theaters He likes scotch whiskey Bond Street clothes women observers slightest interest coming emperor Others cunning betray interest throne prematurely He popular advantage Crown Prince province where supreme The Emperor third Sahle Selassie SH bachelor little sense direction He Cambridge rumored apparently support camps In addition Emperor three there other personalities might emerge struggle power If lived Ras Desta Damtew would certainly outstanding candidate throne He prince blood right married Princess Tenagne Worq Halle Selassie oldest child death earned reputation country ablest administrators fiercest resistance leaders Ras Desta Princess Tenagne Desta still conjure especially The discounted Another possible candidate father Ras Desta Bitwoded Andargachaw Nasai second husband Princess Tenagne He respected representative Emperor Eritrea In event miscarriage matter succession would strong position assert either claims those since controlling Eritrea controls Ethiopia outlets infant industrial tribes Tigre The Bitwoded Dearly Beloved French educated shrewd And close rhomboidal shaped powerful communicative Empress Menen Other possible claimants include Governor Gondar powerfu collaborated Italians forgiven Emperor couple Army generals would direct blood claim throne might which Ethiopia recommendation The likely catalyst revolution would nobles As mentioned SH Emperor fronted certain extent refusing create princes And nobles especially older generation completely sympathy limited democracy which Haile Selassie brought Ethiopia They desire people educated desire limited industrialization which might create small middle class oppose broadening democracy elections short return feudal enelik There certain amount resentment against Emperor within element clergy Alt hough Halle Selassie supported Church supported leaders Church conservative element within clergy within nobles SH reservations about program These reservations mainly concerned Emperor first Church history subject taxation instituted educational requirements clergy These members clergy overlook monies collected taxation church turned administrative At dissatisfied segment clerv would happy throne would appeal reactionary nobles opposed democracy social welfare dedicated Another group which might cause trouble Emperor young intellectuals Nany these sincerely hopeful bringing about regime which democracy perhaps institute constitutional monarchy these women convinced Crown Prince Others Communistic socialistic revolution apparently banking various Russian satellite missions country I found common people country every instance fanatically devoted loyal Emperor I cannot loyalty extends Crown Prince As I known people And historically government Ethiopia highly personal matter The ruling house changed again although always another branch royal family thereby maintaining Solomonic succession which essential maintenance family throne Nobody really knows things Emperor Nobody really properly analyze strengths various possib claimants because Haile Sellasie refused crown Prince powerful popular public It Duke Harar honestly wants being emperor It Bitwoded Andargachaw Nasai ambitions beyond governing Eritrea It Desta longer carries weight Army If Crown Prince succeed without incident I doubt These facts present dynasty first generation there relatively strong possi01e claimants throne certain segments Church Nobles possibly Army dissatisfied trend events especially political sphere there certain amount Communist influence Ethiopia always subject peoples Gallas Tigreans Somalis particularly latter independent Somalia pledged unite Somalis scheduled SH restive willing empire appart their reasons greed patriotism warfare I believe chance either socialistic communistic regime taking Ethiopia It personal opinion Soviets young intellectuals provide nuisance value throne should question I believe Soviets would reactionar candidate against Crown Prince their youth They would knowing important destroy center commune which support among people At Crown Prince would little better chance succeed father His chances improve known willing concessions reactionary Nobility Church If should willing cessions should should otherwise unacceptable extreme Right I would likely claimants would either Duke Harar Ras Desta In country where nobles royal blood however chance horse forgotten Or strong general No matter happens Addis Ababa providing Halle Selassie July within years there trouble provinces This likely separatist among Somalis Harar backed their kinsmen coast anschluss eventual object revolt Tigre Eritra least partial reinstatement traditional liberties those areas unrest rebellionamongthe Gallas Gojjam Wallega andArussiand among Dankali tribes How successful these movements depends large extent character Crown Prince loyalty figures Bitwoded Duke Harar princes blood firmness Imperial Guard fledgling force This crystal gazing course But interesting works I think I wrong Sincerely Smith He Received New York