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3/1/1990 - The Contingent State by Stephen B. Maly

INSTITUTEOFCURRENTWORLDAFFAIRS The Contingent State March Prince Edward Island Peter Bird Martin Institute Current World Affairs West Wheelock Street Hanover New Hampshire 03755 Dear Peter There current thought wants history forward unbroken making thing ineluctably In frame political independence Quebec inevitable outcome unsteady unstoppable process social maturation It culmination repeated cycles francophone nationalism trend toward autonomy For multitude reasons penultimate stage Quebec political development I avoid final since nations oblivion taken hundred years fruition There several false starts notably decade percent Quebec electorate turned thumbs proposal negotiate limited separation Can Although notion times debatable attentive observers easily argue other prospect sovereign Quebec state I predicting anything I cannot wholly subscribe light obvious circular patterns progress decline linear theory human events Nothing inevitable least disaggregation country enjoys remarkable prosperity extraordinary goodwill fractious competitive world In Canada developed developing states alike Outsiders Canada political economic success story plagued endemic fatal cultural lesions Canadians themselves including Quebec nationalists justifiably proud shared achievements fields endeavor But nothing lasts forever people change their minds countries wither states sprout roots whenever climate conducive fresh start In leave figurative garden firmer abstractions authentic nation Quebec again verge splitting apart incipient Canada Whether fission actually place question historical momentum matter contemporary contingencies S ephen Maly Inst Fl uclylng ethnic uiurl ntlons Carmd SM1925 theInstimmofCurrentWormAffairs theCrane R0gersFoundation hasprovidedlong termfenowships enable outstandingyoungadultstoliveoutsidetheUnitedStatesandwriteaboutinternational easandissues Endowed bythelateCharlesR Crane theInstituteisalsosupportedby contributionsfromlike mindedindividualsnd foundations In recent provocative position evolution actually works Harvard paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould invokes historical literary concept contingency Eschewing mechanistic dogma about randomness eplaining natural selection esses course dismissing irrationalities Bible thumping creation scientists Gould instead analogies readers believable wackiness great chain arbitrary conditional change We especially moved Gould writes Wonderful Life events occurred identifiable reasons subject endless mulling stewing Contingency affirmation control immediate events destiny kingdom horseshoe A reasonable approach Quebec political evolution imagine It depends broad range variables decision maneuver there purposefully ambiguous remarks intentioned deceit lurking deadlines timing elections external attitudes events volatility public opinion static cling politicians their particular solutions constitutional Iemma The situat Canada steep slope given correct correlation innumerable forces conditions surrounding environment sooner later avalanche The resulting cascade political consequences cause noise scare We another decade intricate lattice subsurface structures turns quite right historical moment guebecs separation sOoner Everything contingent Consider comparison snowbaliing character change Eastern Europe Who pinpoint precise triggering action event tumbled several regimes buried mountains expectation dramatic short order Conditions learned analysts forced conclude In although important distinguish democratic conditions totalitarian Quebec independence distinctly probable means certain Thin stacking rather nicely _iust proponents separation In foreground relevant events package constitutional changes intended guebec quasi legal mostly symbolic exclusion federation nearly kaput which shortly shoved Quebecker faces marked return sender The contents Meech Lake accord unacceptable growi number Canadians While population remains ignorant amendment fairly simple details accord inside still vexed vagueness crucial areas The country whole feeling Meeched Out fatigue serves nobodys political purposes better Parti guebecois F Q leader Jacques Parizeau takes position without amendments country ungovernable Quebec ought govern itself instead The Meech Lake isbut contingency albeit particu larly important because symbolism sentiment become attached substance An expert constitutionai serves advisor Quebec government tried vainly impress document actuai could hardly found ectionable reasonable people He parts He pointed specific paragraphs He stood He shrugged grimaced understood perfecly wrong The truth about politics I having learn facts count public perceptions It legitimate governments federal provincial representing percent Canadian electorate approved Meech Lake accord The perception however agreement negotiated behind closed doors without proper oonsultation citizens groups supporters using every trick pressure holdout provinces Meech unchanged In category unseemly scare tactics External Affairs Minister Joe Clark invoked specter Of October Crisis federal troops occupied Montreal response kidnappings independence terrorists The truth about Meech Lake somewhere middle rather place Facts facts there really thing misperception People often misread misconstrue misinterpret misunderstand express meaning background intent important legal texts believe perceive democratic setting command authority their perceptions binding It Most Canadians matter which several dozen surveys chooses consult Quebec guilty attempting power Those other reasons condemn accord This justice certainly Quebeckers without leaders successfully orchestrate constitutional change bringing facts harmony perceptions Canada condemned suffer consequences latter If NO Meech Lake Quebeckers perceive decision rejec Quebec insulted Canada Behind numbing whirl crude gamesmanship subtle duplicity Meech Lake debate potent reality nationalist consensus Quebec taken shape It matched contrary nationalist coalescence everywhere The traditionally federalist Quebec Liberal party resolutely independentiste PQ themselves backed corner which there dignified exits leading direction sovereignty The foundations political alliance between rival parties I details economic viability independent Quebec becoming issue Key figures business community joining chorus nationalist intellectuals argued along sovereignty worth short disruptions labor markets Montreal stock exchange Can Quebec survive alone president medical electronics company example No doubt about Its educational system produces world class engineers scientists business managers people compete anywhere Once disregard Britain France Germany Italy Quebec economy competitive country Europe considerably stronger other countries world This confidence francophone executive perfect harmony recent remarks economic advisor Quebec Premier Robert Bourassa The surprisingly candid bureaucrat aCarleton University audience Ottawa Quebec Were independent gross domestic product billion would exceed Denmar Austria short Belgium Not country million people The Bank Montreal Toronto Dominion Bank issued reports suggesting separatism concern corporations witch large investments Quebec their capital should continue bring profitable returns Interested presumably neutral parties outside Canada similarly sanguine A Merrill Lynch study independence might cause slight economic downturn years prospects sovereign Quebec What sweet music nationalist In midst clashing symbols constitutional debate unepectedly gentle notes inancial community other events signal proound confidence durability Canada existing social economic architecture Ove several months municipalities outside Quebec passed resolutions declaring English their oicia language Early Sault Ste Marie Ontario councils stated intention strong signal provincial ederal governments bilingualism become costly burdensome local level other communities adopted similar binding measures other provinces several deiant towns passed oppositemotions bilingualism cacophonic bandwagon started Most Quebec commentators interpret English resolutions Fench Quebec This ederal gdvernment eacted Bigotry become headlines editorial columns councils Facts perceptions melded mental conusion continues poduce angry sneers incoherent litanies in_ustice wheever media invites public comment language policy Meech Lake I painfully obvious contingency fools paradi Too compleo network crossed signals passes world Let return present conditions independence plausible desirable option Quebec Canada going broke With federal deficit about billion capita roughly seven times United States paragon itself fiscal responsibility About thirty cents every federal dollar devoted interest payments previous borrowing The Canadian Minister Finance Michael Wilson recently announced substantial cutbacks amount federal disbursements provinces cutting spending This serious business because inability central government uphold principles equality universality raises doubts about viability Canadian style federalism Quebec hardest austerity measures stands appro imately million anticipated income later Moreover provincial officials pro_iected Quebec paying Ottawa receives within decade This suggests federalism cease profitable Quebec ceased province meaning economy developed point where Cnada needs contributions Quebec needs Canada Things changed rather dramatically since approimately percent public spending Quebec subsidized federal government There additional financial indicators strongly suggest Quebec industries taipayers price staying Canada going Not least these impending imposition percent federal sales nearly everyone angry without putting thedeficit Now optimal country It wouldn cheap PQ leaders acknowledge responsibilit assume share Of Canada between percent billion although negotia tions actual amount would probably robust protracted Separatists admit technical difficulty creating currency instilling external confidence stability Quebec already debts deficits manage In addition result unexpected shortfalls revenue sales drought lowered water levels behind Hydro guebecs reducing amount electricity available deliveries U S markets Quebec government authorized utility increases probably raise taxes But point members managerial classes appear serious problem adjusting independence Technical difficulties insurmountable_ problems Opposition leader Jacques Parizeau experienced economist alone viewing Canada enormously inefficient burdened waste bureaucracy irrational priorities Quebec could better All money about supposed unthinkable bolstered assumption sovereign Quebec would quickly negotiate trade agreement between itself United States patterned identical reached between Canada U S There reasons expect would struck Refusing treat Quebec favorably already under existing bilateral trade would serve legitimate U S interest Quebec valued customer worth trucks aircraft engines business machines electronic components reliable supplier newsprint aluminum lumber hydroelectricity automobiles range manufactured goods amounting billion Between percent Quebecs foreign trade United States Quebec natio nalists therefore necessarily crazy about maintaining access American market taking measures would alienate American investorsr The political strength federal Conservative party Quebec partly reflection Brian Mulroney favorite status importantly hinges Conservatives pushing forward CanadaU S trade accord which gives Quebeckers unaccustomed Confidence their economic future A spiteful Canadian government probably Liberal definitely Mulroney would sooner spoiler Quebec United States realm trade finance Left leaning intellectuals English Canada still seething blatant cultural betrayal their Quebec counterparts voted favor closer integration states In addition trade agreement still sensitive issue parts Canada durable pected That whole other contingenci current leadership federal Liberal Party contenders accept trade support Meech Lake front runner Jean Chretien Let steer clear these knots forget crucial trade arrangement United States Quebec I asked American Quebec Ottawa officials separate whether conceive scenarios wherein U S would sides Canadian government determined stymie separation Such involvement would overt intervention course could entail timed trade measures countervailing action against subsidized important export industry aluminum This thing might Quebeckers pause additional Canada tighten other economic screws The suggestion Machiavellian incongruent American interest experts countenance I cannot ecided ultimately decisive Americans toward ophone allies Britain Argentina highly valued Latin American customer friend strategic matters tried Fa kiand Is In wondering Patti Quebecois radical change regard contributions NATO matter anymore parti ipation continental defense systems NORAD gaions jointly manage Saint Lawrence Seaway United States The Quebec functional terms things would pretty foreseeable future The erence would largely symbolic fleur Would military installations Quebec instead maple Whether would Washington D C worthy discussion later For nasty negative aside tangle contingencies lines analysis R B Byers D Leyton Brown The Strategic Economic implications United States So ereign Quebec Faced rather independent countries north parallel underlying strategic assumptions regarding continental security would seriously examined American military political circles The heated debate ratification Panama Canal Treatyosuggests thatthe range opinion could emerge security considerations posed autonomous Quebec I besides welcoming attitude toward American visitors American capital Quebeckers exhibit surprising naivete about U S foreign policy They think This realistic Notwithstanding bickering bilingualism assimilationist pressures Canada Quebeckers think Amer icans would respectful their French language culture Why think about One reason Quebeckers generous optimistic outlook United States Professor Louis Balthazar pointed books subject Quebec U S relations share better parts American dream never cease contrast dynamism culture dreary monochrome nglish Canada Another interesting obvious reason Quebeckers European sources reporting U S political scene Recall moment surprising warmth relations between Mitterand France Reaganista regime rosily things sounded Le Monde Since relatively small group Quebec officials maintain regular cross border contact American power elite there tendency encouraged wishful thinking Balthazar words intelligent influential Quebecois exaggerate U S interest Quebec degree acceptance neutrality their U S equivalents accord their Canadian controversies Amen What would proud Quebecois nationalist example clever Off remark American consular Offici FrenchCanadians butter melting popcorn English North America Despite pressing forge stable friendly trade defense relationship United States Quebec other important external connections particularly Europe Premier Bourassa several trips overseas eCent years always returns announcements freshly minted export contracts _ioint ventures Hungary Bourassa latest France interestingly enough presently Quebec ranked trading partner The volume intensity bilateral commerce might increase Quebec become independent economic relationship driven political considerations French companies invested aluminum industry because Quebec abundance cheap hydroelectric energy Quebeckers French perfume francs earned There standing cUltural exchange programs between Quebec France The French complain about Quebecs mutual affections distortionsof language example Quebeckers launch similar criticisms theoppoSite direction The relative stuffiness legendary arrogance thegoverning elite France drives Quebec officials batty I They would rather AmeriCans Brazilians sometimes British There France might attempt exploit Quebec natural resources geopolitical location North America Along contingency thinking pretty A published Jean Francois Lisee asserts CIA believed KGB infiltr ators behind Charles Gaulle infamous Vive Quebec libre speech All speculative intrigue aside evidence clearly mounting Quebec afford Canada handle affairs Sovereignty viable option How Quebec nation about attaining independence And The Patti guebecois series referenda secede stages The details about clear overall intent democratic fault There precedent Canadian history guide process secession Newfoundland referendum leave federation Even Quebec referendum preliminary equivocal measure passed extensive further negotiations would required Moreover suppose convincing majority whatever proportion Quebeckers favor separation would government Canada recognize exercise valid The Lithuanian Parliament faced similar problem President Gorbachev considers declaration independence illegal though Soviet constitution includes right secession Canadians large avoided serious attention practical matter legal separation It understandably nevertheless dangerous think openly about things generally considered beyond Consider different world would nuclear continued thought unthinkable hence worthy technical scientific analysis The analogy extreme contingency catastrophic The U S Civil War especially poignant tragedy writes Stephen Jay Gould because replay might saved miilion iives thousand different reasons Candid discussion divorce procedures order allay people worst fears There external cases France Algeria engineered their final disengagement after unfortunate bloodshed Norway split apart Sweden noisy nonviolent affair Borrowing lesson De Gauile Ottawa might reach agreement Quebec countrywide subsequent several Quebec itself This process would surely legitimizing effect avoid bitter feelings defeat occurred Western Australia failed procure autonomy There reason doubt peaceful secession formula could worked worth noting international require orderly transition changeto considered valid A accompli would At moment polls indicate growing disaffection Quebec I reported before surprising levels indifference toward breakup Canada But talking about thing resistance could fierce general terms specific regard property settlements territorial claims Who title those newish federal buildings other valuable government owned estate across Ottawa River Hull Quebec What about repeated insistence editorialists Quebec would corridor territory along south shore St Lawrence provide bridge between Ontario Maritime provinces That never happen Quebec would unquestionably provide transit rights instead issue territorial imperative dangerous The losers sovereignty gamble factored important contingencies Quebec independence would undermine rights aspirations thousand rancophones living elsewhere Canada Some would choose leave communities Maritimes Ontario West their ancestral Quebec others would hanging wither English dismembered Canadian state A number anglophones would doubt West Montreal Eastern Townships other enclaves depleting Quebecs economic potential extent leaving remainder English Quebeckers those married rancophone families themselves The Canada whole Quebec bolts It mortal Canadians piecemeal absorption United States Of respect prestige bargaining power world large Without Quebec economist lamented sourly proper English lunch would settle international clout Holland Canada would place ranks Stoup Seven western industrialized powers political leverage GATT other multilaterai orums Quebec being welcomed United Nations feted cultural compatriots Francophonie association French speaking countries showing sorts economic diplomatic promise Quebec independence Canadians ready stand assert national interest defiance Yanks competition heavy hitters Europe Far East How protect interest being undermined Quebec As Quebeckers their sovereignty basic question indeed there different sorts proects being advanced different groups idealists Cultural nationalists preoccupied safeguarding French language It development inviolable vital space Francophonie writes Marcel Couture Quebec ournal Forces engender original contribution voice chorus nations countries peoples societies conjoined language culture enriched their prestigious modern resolutely turned towards twenty first century Independence would Quebec vital spaces bounds Ottawa federal courts would automatically grant exceptional powers guardians ulture There obvious ideological technological limits state ability control ideas influences particularly North America Those charge drafting Quebec constitution would consideration rights linguistic minorities economic planners would pragmatic toward bilingualism serious about export development strategy It inconceivable government independent Quebec would permit encourage English especially business The irony important about sovereignty Quebeckers without having justify their policy choices higher authority Like anything substance under harsh intense scrutiny Quebec nationalism I dwell accusations rooted racism latent Semitism bugaboo collectivist mentality individual freedom because there truth because arguments unfair These illiberal forces attributes almost every nationalist movement certainly pronounced Quebec other parts Canada other democratic countries United States Quebeckers unaware risks becoming iudiced inward looking society rather egalitarian troverted Those brink giving Canadian federalism still remorse about shucking protections layered system government provide against petty abuses power gross tyranny The cynical independence provide narrow elite already contemptuous ordinary Quebeckers power wealth prestige This possible outcome process determination Beyond there peculiar irony charges Quebec selfish Canadian provinces The phrase Quebec abord Quebec first sometimes hurled against Quebeckers insult I perceive people Quebec intensely devoted their nation If British Columbia nation citizens would probably strident asserting their interests natural Quebeckers tired being chastised being being themselves One lesson would framers world federation layering loyalties problematic effect making patriotic virtues craven conceit Protecting language conserving lated cultural values escaping economic strictures federation motivations sovereignty The Green Party Patti Vert Quebec views independence golden opportunity transform growth consumption oriented society ecologically sensible Environmentalism evidence Quebec right Greens fielded astounding candidates provincial election about percent popular They National Assembly growing public outcry chemical spills toxic waste dumps environmental assessment rules undoubtedly propel greening Quebec political landscape More point Greens believe sovereignty unleash burst reconstructive energy The Patti Vert president Jean Ouimet boundless enthusiasm He province campaigning cleaner My Alice I earlier month party spartan green tinted really office St Denis Street Montreal At lunch watched heaping plate vegetarian delicacies stone talked talked talked about guebeckers weicome themselves ongoing province dialogue computer terminals He tired A carrot iuice cocktail perked right again It Ouimet image avalanche about happen What IS going happen This question Pierre Trudeau televised interview Trudeau civilized erudite rampage against Meech Lake accord He believes Canada admits Quebec could alone He I Ditto entranced befuddled correspondent SM Qu BEC This Patti Quebecois booklet boundary between Quebec Labrador In internat ionai arbitration panel awarded _iurisdiction coastal region check atlas coordinates province Newfoundland Rich mineral hydropower resources ad3acent important Atlantic fisheries Labrador could territory worth fighting sovereign Quebec decides disavow earlier settlement press historic claims Received Hanover