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3/13/1965 - Political Stability Mirage or Hope by Takashi Oka

INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS NOT FOR PUBLICATION TO P O Box Political Stability Saigon Vietnam irage Hope March Mr R H Nolte Institute Current World Affairs Madison Avenue New York N Y Dear Lr Nolte Is political stability South Vietnam mirage shimmering parched distance vanish first concrete implementation Thoroughly discouraged slxteen month kaleidoscope counter demonstration hunger strike featuring shouting students scheming generals posturing politicians enigmatic bonzes militant priests Americans tempted ahsWer Yes This newsletter presumes sanguine Admittedly political stability South Vietnam remains rather But chances realizing better today other since dictatorship Ngo Dinh Diem overthrown November 1963o New_ Arm sphere Sa T three outward signs atmosphere emergence Phan Huy Quat cabinet departure Lto Geno Nguyen Khanh domestic political scene American South Vietnamese bombing selected North Vietnamese targets The third these three happenings received greatest international publicity Its principal meaning South Vietnamese internal politics psychological underscores American determination stand Vietnam Washington South Vietnamese could possiUly doubt American intentions after myriad assurances given successive governments Saigon Yet South Vietnam local uncertainties suspicions regarding firmness American commitment potent unsettling factor Deeds speak louder words Internationally American extension North Vietnam incalculable consequences But regards domestic situation South Vietnam bombin North reassuring morale boosting effect American officials aware effect likely temporary unless until South Vietnamese their house order An effective government providing inspiring political leadership effective singlemindedly fighting Hanoi supported CommuniSt insurrection prerequisites victory South Vietnam desperate struggle survival In context Quat cabinet formed month viewed simply latest dreary series ineffective governments Or considered first tangible South Vietnam feuding power groups decided least rather against other Similarly General Khanh ouster could characterized phase continuing disintegrative power struggle within armed forces during course which strong gives another Or might represent final failure attempt impose armed forces presage period collegiate responsibility In first understandable after disappointments sixteen months Yet I believe second comes truth Both Dr Quat governmental leadership enormous perhaps crushing difficulties ahead But between their predecessor there difference atmosphere spirit Teamwork keynote If carefully nurtured understandingly encouraged spirit could blossom creative unifying leadership This spirit sudden shoot It developed gradually recent months through process painful evolution It triumphant everywhere today Deep mutual suspicions remain embedded tacit agreement armed forces various other power groups South Vietnam rather against other It Dr Quat colleagues dissolve these icions gently surely enticed legendary traveller cloak Power South Vietnam What South Vietnam major power groups The first obviously armed forces twenty generals composing Armed Forces Council various regimental battalion commanders whose voices claim represent During sixteen months armed forces riven divisions united other single domestle group overthrow All other power groups South Vietnam derive their influence possession physical force ability organize large groups people support their TO demands Their power other words power The Buddhists claim percent population reckoned strongest these organizations Under dynamic leaders Thich Tri Quang exercise close complete political control cities towns Central Vietnam Their organization South Vietnam former Cochin China weaker The Cochinchinese traditionally easygoing politically minded Central Northern Vietnamese though nominally Buddhists respond wholeheartedly political directives hlerarehy which itself unified Central Vietnam Nevertheless refugee bonzes North Vietnam Thich Tam Chau enjoy considerable prestige Saigon where northerners settled The Roman Catholics Buddhists split between native southerners Coehinchinese refugees fromthe North The militant Catholic group called Catholic Struggle Committee headed fiery Father Hoang Quynh nationalist patriot fought against Communist guerrillas native diocese Phat Diem North Vietna Father Quynh represents Catholics south rather remain Communist North Vietnam They course fanatically Communist talking quitting Vietnam altoge should Communists occupy entire country She southern Catholics nominally under control astute mannered Archbishop Paul Tran Tu Binh Saigon interested politics somewhat embarrassed demonstrations staged Father Quynh group Northern southern alike Catholics tightly organized Buddhists represented officer corps Vietnamese Armed Forces South Vietnam indigenouS religions Cao Dai Hoa Hao Beth religions claim Over million adherents During French against Vietminh religions permitted maintain private armies operated autonomous states Cao Dai Tayninh province Hoa Hao Long Xuyen Chau Dec Cambodian border Neither Cao Dai Hoa Hao following Saigon itself recognized western ekong delta cannot pacified without support adherents these religions Former President Ngo Dinh Diem defeated their armies sought every means split their political religious leaders Today religions riddled factions But within there attempts reunification recent months Although Communists worked assiduously infiltrate their ranks during years Diem regime repressing large remain Communist The Hoa Hao particular exercise degree control their peasantry government official duplicate Compared these groups politicians belonging existing political parties slender personal followings During French politica parties dedicated removal Of colonial necessity small clandestine conspiratorial The situation improve during dictatorship Ngo Dinh Diem allowed government sanctioned parties operate aboveground Consequently although there innumerable political parties politicians sought another support religious groups possible Lt Gen Nguyen Khanh premier informal representatives these religions cabinet The Vung Tau Charter Au gu_st crisis Transition The events August first brought major group Buddhists squarely conflict others elements armed forces Roman Catholics All parties strove avoid osing conflict these terms preferring other words dictatorship communism struggle democracy preservation order The recip itating factor called Vung Tau Charter August It recalled August August North Vietnamese torpedo boats attacked American warships Gulf Tonkino On August President Johnson ordered retaliatory strikes against selected North Vietnamese targets General Khanh premier chairman military junta these events golden opportunity legitimize For pudgy goateed general power months previously through based flimsiest excuses since promising nation constitution democratic elections The general proclaimed state emergency slapped stringent press censorship prevailed members military junta proclaim constitution under which himself assumed close dictatorial powers Chief State August however anniversary month numerous events connected Ngo Dinh Diem regime attempts suppress sralu BUddhist protest movement previous Diem imprisoned thousands bonzes students schoolchildren eventually overthrown military revolt The buddhists representatives Khanh cabinet already grumbled about regarded General Khanh authoritarian tendencies The August charter alarmed The charter adopted seaside resort Vung Tau Cap St Jacques where General Khanh secondary headquarters thoroughly First students Buddhists streets twelve months before Then Father Quynh Northern Catholic refugees They demonstrated constitution against Buddhist protests Latent feeling between Buddhists Catholics erupted incidents several Central Vietnamese cities In Saigon students Buddhist Catholic schools fought pitched battles while police apparently orders General Khanh himself nothing General Khanh objective apparently prove unless stayed saddle South Vietnam would slide chaos But situation Khanh alarmed other members military junta forced retract August charter promise restoration civilian October In retrospect appears every interested party viewed events August through particular The American Embassy believed strongly Khanh deliberately allowed disorder prevail showed firmness Could ridden protests preserved government Some officers notably those Catholic background reproached Khauh regarded spinelessness The Buddhists other claimed risen preserve democracy oppose dictatorship because their religion could flourish under mocracy Once condition political ambitions would return their cloisters But there little question Buddhist leaders Thich Tam Chau particular intoxicated apparently victory The question demagogic these leaders failed consider whether citizens Saigon Central Vietnam clearly massively followed their orders regard opposing Vung Tau charter could easily mobilized lesser cause The Catholics feared increase Buddhist prestige influence which bound aftermath regarded Khanh surrender They feared Buddhists willing compromise Communists whereas themselves because their militant religion could never sanction outcome They looked armed forces protect their Interests Finally armed forces whole regard pping General Khanh military surrender civilians They recognized business government complicated first expected willing civilians administrative government since substantive power remained military hands Whether cabinet civilian province chiefs except military corps commanders wellnigh absolute warlords within their jurlsdictions Thus Khanh government caretaker status about actually planning transition civilian control above mentioned groups approached subject viewpoint General Khanh still given ambitions returning power wanted civilian goVernment would He naming High National Council enemy General Duong Van Minh nominal Chief State General Minh chose heterogeneous group prestigious ffectual elders collectively dubbed National Museum None power groups played active roles August events represented On council The councillors elected their members Phan Khac Suu Chief State Mr Suu nominated Prefect Saigon Tran Van Huong Premier Both honest meaning grandfatherly individuals liZtle experience rough tumble daily politics knowledge facts ofpolitical power South Vietnam The Council considerable American drafted provisional Constitution under which council continue functioning temporary legislature Prmier Hm Cgnfronts_ Buddhist Premier Huong quickly conflict Buddhists The Buddhists stage candid about their desires In couple candidates premiership Yet outwardly claimed uninterested politic wanted democratic premier would persecute Buddhism As observer close Buddhist affiliations explained uddhists dilemma Events suddenly catapulted esition great influence They Welcomed position worked years achieve But suddenly fully prepared utilize They their power urban masses religious prestige accumulated years That prestige proved sufficient citizenry against Diem regime appeared persecuting Buddhism It proved sufficient bring Khanh regime announced dictatorial constitution recalling parallels Diem regime How would masses follow bonzes important purely political iSsue Such choice premier naming cabinet ministers No really Thus Buddhist leaders temporized their statements radictory But their meaning plain We achieved position influence nation affairs saying disregard peril Premier Huong later Buddhists submitted lists prospective cabinet ministers began opposing Mr Huong latter rejscted these lists The Buddhists riposted these lists never offic lally sanctioned their leaders inended mereAy suggestions TO Whatever uddhist intentions Nr Huong chose ignore Not cabinet include names suggested uddhists It contained several individuals associated hated Ngo Dinh Diem regime In sense seemed almost deliberately designed provoke Buddhists Thus began Huong confrontation Buddhists confrontation initially little beyond misunderstandings leading feelings sides This Situation which American Embassy chosen neutral could helped ameliorate Embassy sense grievance Khanh failure maintain order August remained strong Equally strong feeling Buddhists allowed bring another government taking streets Thus American Embassy supporting Huong armed forces keeping hands situation rapidly reached point return The Buddhists Saigen student support tried several times organize massive demonstrations August scale against Huong regime The demonstrations however moderate crowds Huong showed himself military governer Saigen General Pham Van Dong Arrests limited reasonably chosen Students demonstrated their military deferments cancelled hauled training camps By December there feeling desperation uddhist But B uddhists already proved thing while might bring Huong government could prevent ruling effectively In December Hueng movement spread Central Vietnam where Buddhists better organized where sympathetic commander General Nguyen Chanh Thio At point number Vietnamese leaders Huong Buddhists began bring sides together On reasoned Buddhists tired They tried mobilize masses issue transcendent August failed At retained strength confirmed believers could almost impossible Huong effectively After could forever aintain curfews cities schools closed The would mediators these factors there compromise Some active members group members Dr Quat cabinet Dr Quat himself played important effort Before mutual agreement achieved however armed forces moved against civilian government issue quite unrelated Buddhist problem The High National Council bottled proposal retire generals years service The proposal passed would meant retiring number prominent leaders variety reasons unacceptable General Khanh group junior generals known Young Turks Impatiently Young Turks decided arrest High National Council while retaining Premier Huong Chief State Suu he__December Coup This celebrated December The American Embassy jumped mouth arena In eated meeting Young Turk generals Ambassador Maxwell Taylor maintained abolish High National Council tantamou destroying whole fabric civilian government which during armed forces could intervene civilian government would enjoying power without responsibility The United States could government united power responsibility argued His American relations General Khanh already strained Embassy Young Turks became glacial Furthermore Premier Huong despite Embassy pledges support against armed forces seemed accept dissolution High National Council accompli Mr Huong still appeared possessed quarrel Buddhists He regarded support essential dispute Therefore seemed inclined accommodate stand against matter principle In taking attitude Mr Huong destroyed force argument using against Buddhists For whatever anyone might think Or policies office through procedures clearly outlined provisional constitution October If group wanted follow procedures likewise specified eonstituti0n obtain majority against High National Council But threw Council arrested leading members Huong nothing imprecise statement which satisfied The American Embassy originally reverse December backtracked eventually acknowledged tacitly High National Council demise Huong thereupon reshuffled cabinet three aetlve generals proceeded reignite dispute Buddhists This however Buddhists outmaneuvered Mr Huong Five leading bonzes hunger strike until Huong overthrow TO Among ThiCh Tri Quang intense unquestioned Buddhist leader Central Vietnam Thlch Tam Chau headed Vien Hoa Dao Buddhist Church secular Saigono Meanwhile other bonzes negotiated leading generals including commnder inchief General Khanh The Buddhists promised generals would Huong would further political demands except Case actual persecution Buddhist church This loophole since persecution charge levied against Huong _Huong Khanh Depart General Khanh apparently thought ousting Huong could power On Wave Buddhist generated popularity But For gradually Buddhists leading generals realize singlehandedly neither armed forces various civilian power groups could enjoy exclusive power Each possessed Veto against other armed forces could overthr gOvernments coups The Buddhists through their control hardcore believers could premiership highly unattractive anyone chose oppose And Catholics though smaller shown August could things extremely uncomfortable government disliked intensely enough From recognition cooperation towards common transition It fully accomplished today Yet Buddhist Catholic armed forces representatives began informally attempt mutually acceptable substitute defunct High National Council Gradually legislative council representing armed forces religious groups began shape Cao Dai Hoa Hao leaders attended several these gatherings Within armed forces meanwhile similar process taking place Leading generals realized remaine disunited tools General Khanh played On their ambitions their suspicions semel their cupidity further overweening personal And GeneralKh though finally reached point where longer trusted anyone matter reasonable conciliatory might These processes among civilians within armed forces eventually emergence Phan Huy Quat cabinet ouster General Khanh Controversy surrounds specific stages through which events passed Yet another Catholic officers intervened before Khnah finally agreed leave country The motives those participated those suppressed mixed But through these events there discerned Underlying undeniably idealistic desire With excluslvlst factlonal attitudes forge common front against Communist terror complete Vietnamese revolution Time alone permanent climate It still fragile plant could nourishment But exists cannot abandon South Vietnam Sineerely yours Takashi Oka Received New York March