The July 19 Tehran summit with the presidents of Turkey, Iran, and Russia will likely determine whether a brewing Turkish incursion into Syria actually takes place, former ICWA fellow Andrew Tabler, together with Soner Cagaptay, reports for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 

The report concludes that an incursion on the city of Tal Rifaat, close to the northern border, would be the “least bad” scenario for the U.S., while an attack instead on Kobane, a city 150 km to the east, could upset the status quo, constraining Washington’s ability to maneuver against Damascus—and potentially the Islamic State. 

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Photo: Turkish armed forces lined up at a 2020 victory parade (Roman Ismayilov, Wikimedia Commons)